... the Islamic version of the old Somali warlord...
's leader in a drone strike is leading many Somalis to predict the collapse of the terror group.
The US government confirmed last Friday that Ahmed Abdi Godane, also known as Mukhtar Abu al-Zubayr, had been killed by an
In an audio message posted Saturday (September 6th) on murderous Moslem websites, al-Shabaab front man Ali Mohamud Rage said that Ahmed Omar (aka Abu Ubaidah) had been named as Godane's successor.
"The leadership also renews its allegiance to the mujahideen of al-Qaeda," he added.
But according to Cheikh Nur Barud Gurhan, the deputy chairman of the Somali Association of Islamic Scholars, Godane's death strikes a blow to al-Shabaab and its ally al-Qaeda.
The newly appointed commander "will certainly not have the ability to keep the group together like Godane did", the cheikh said. "Further, it is possible that many within the group are not satisfied with the new leader, which could result in groups splintering from al-Shabaab."
The new al-Shabaab commander is unlikely to live up to Godane, agreed Omar Dahir Sheikh Abdirahman, the director of Mogadishu's Centre for Moderation and Dialogue.
"Godane was a harsh leader who could lure people with either poetry or sermons and be persuasive. No one can take his place," he said.
"Al-Shabaab will most likely fall apart. There are many people who would have left, but they were afraid Godane would kill them," Abdirahman added.
Godane's death comes nearly a week after the African Union
...a union consisting of 53 African states, most run by dictators of one flavor or another. The only all-African state not in the AU is Morocco. Established in 2002, the AU is the successor to the Organisation of African Unity (OAU), which was even less successful...
Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and Somali government forces launched Operation Indian Ocean, a major offensive aimed at seizing key ports from al-Shabaab and cutting off one of their key sources of revenue -- multi-million dollar exports of charcoal. Since the operation began, allied forces have pushed al-Shabaab back on a number of fronts.
"In the near future, al-Shabaab can be expected to carry out major kabooms and attacks...as Dire Revenge™ for their slain leader," former Radio Mogadishu news hound Liban Abdi Ali noted. "However,
it was a brave man who first ate an oyster...
the important thing is al-Shabaab is on the path to future destruction."
Now would be a good time for the Somali government to talk to Al-Shabaab, suggested Abdirahman, the director of the Centre for Moderation and Dialogue.
"In my opinion, there is no leader who is currently alive who believes in al-Qaeda ideology like Godane did. Therefore, it is possible that [remaining al-Shabaab leaders] will reconcile with the government and abandon the battle they are waging," he said. "The government has to take advantage of that opportunity."
"The new commander can be useful if engaged in dialogue. The way to do this is to extend amnesty to and then reconcile with al-Shabaab so that they put their weapons down," Abdirahman added.
Abdi Aynte, who heads the Mogadishu-based Heritage Institute for Policy Studies, supports the idea of including al-Shabaab in Somalia's grinding of the peace processor.
"It is better to reconcile with the ones whose ambition is confined to Somalia, and who are not engaged in global jihad," he said.