This is a condensation of an analysis of forces in the war in southeastern Ukraina. The tabular data was compiled by a Russian military blogger who self identifies as Alex Leshy.
For a map, click here. You can enlarge the map, if you open it separately.
By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
As the shaky ceasefire in southeastern Ukraina enters its second week, it appears the Ukrainian military is planning a second assault into the region.
Ukrainian military leaders have reinforced some key areas and have withdrawn from others. Every indication from Russian social media is that a Ukrainian counteroffensive is inevitable.
When the attack will come is unknown, but it rests somewhere between sooner and later. This writes thinks Ukraina will attack around the October 26th parliamentary elections called by Ukrainian president Piotr Poroshenko last month.
But since the fall rains and the time of rasputitsa (mud roads) are just days away, Ukraina could wait until winter, about late November.
Ukrainian Force deployments
Area A (About 15 k north of Lugansk): 3,100 personnel, 50 tanks, 180 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 100 mortars, 100 artillery tubes, towed and self propelled, 80 multiple rocket launchers (MRLS). Forces include three territorial defense battalions at full strength: "Chernigov", "Kharkiv" and "Nikolayev", and one territorial defense company from "Aydar". Two battalion tactical groups (one from the 80th Independent Airmobile brigade) and two National Guard artillery battalions from the 55th Artillery Brigade. Defensive frontage is 100 kilometers and between 60 and 70 kilometers in depth, from Schastye to Starobelska.
Area B (Kemennaya): 2,200 personnel, between 62 and 90 tanks, 120 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, about 100 mortars, 80 artillery tubes, towed and self propelled, 30 MLRS. Units deployed include elements of "Sich" Territorial Defense Battalion and "Nikolaev" Territorial Defense Battalion, one battalion from the Ukrainian National Guard, and some units from unidentified mechanized brigades. Defensive frontage of between 50 and 60 kilometers. Area of responsibility includes Borovskoe, Sirotino, Syeverodonets'k, Lisicansk, Vrubovka and Popasnaya.
Area C (Debalcevo-Artemovsk-Popasnaya): 3,600 personnel, 150 tanks, 250 armored personnel carrier/infantry fighting vehicles, 200 mortars, 130 artillery tubes, towed and self-propelled guns, 120 MLRS. Forces include "Kiev-2" Territorial Defense Battalion, "Kiev-11" Territorial Defense Battalion, 25th Territorial Defense Battalion, "Donbass" Territorial Defense Battalion, "Kievan Rus" Territorial Defense Battalion, the 42nd Territorial Defense Battalion, one company from "Aydar" Territorial Defense Battalion and two new battalion tactical groups, one mechanized, and one from the 2nd National Guard Brigade. Defensive Frontage of 50 kilometers. Area of responsibility includes Popasnaya, Trinity, Debalcevo, Uglegorsk, Svetlodarsk and the eastern outskirts of Dzerzhinsk.
Area D (Immediately north of Donetsk city): 3,000 personnel, 100 tanks, 300 armored personnel carrier/infantry fighting vehicles, 80 mortars, 200 artillery tubes, towed and self propelled, 200 MLRS. Three battalion tactical groups from elements of which are from unidentified units, "Artemivs'k" Territorial Defense Battalion, "Shahtersk" Territorial Defense Battalion, one company from "Aydar" National Guard Battalion and one "Right Sector" Battalion. Defensive frontage of 70 kilometers. Area of responsibility includes Dzerzhinsk, Yenakievo and Avdiyivka.
Area E (Immediately west of Donetsk city): 1,600 personnel, 20 tanks, 100 armored personnel carrier/infantry fighting vehicles, 30 mortars, 100 artillery tubes, towed and self propelled, 20 MLRS. Forces include one battalion tactical group from the Ukrainian 93rd Motorized Rifle brigade, one unidentified battalion tactical group, one unidentified Ukrainian National Guard battalion and "SS" Territorial Defense Battalion. Defensive frontage is 40 kilometers. Area of responsibility includes from Avdeyevka to Alenovki.
Area F (Vladimirovka, northwest of Mariupol and southwest of Donetsk city): 3,000 personnel, 100 tanks, 200 armored personnel carriers/infantry fighting vehicles, 150 mortars, 140 artillery tubes, towed and self propelled, 100 MLRS. Forces include two companies from "Shahtersk" Territorial Defense Battalion, one unidentified artillery group including guns from a "Right Sector" unit, two battalion tactical groups, including motorized rifle units said to be possibly from the Ukrainian National Guard and three tank company tactical groups. Defensive frontage of 15 kilometers. Area of responsibility is between Volnovaha and Novotroitskie.
Area G (Mariupol): 3,200 personnel, 50 tanks, 150 armored personnel carriers/infantry fighting vehicles, 120 mortars, 140 artillery tubes, towed and self propelled, 70 MLRS. Forces include "Khortytsya" Territorial Defense Battalion, "Vinnitsa" Territorial Defense Battalion , "Azov" Territorial Defense Battalion, "Kharkiv-1" Territorial Defense Battalion, two companies from "Donbass" Territorial Defense Battalion, one battalion task force of the Ukrainian 79th Airmobile Brigade, one company of marines, one company of "Right Sector" militiamen. Area of responsibility is Mariupol.
Area H (southwest of Lugansk city): 200 personnel, 12 tanks. Forces include elements of the Ukrainian 25th Airborne Brigade and the Ukrainian 30 Mechanized Brigade. Editor's note; Chances are very good these forces have already been withdrawn to Schastye behind the North Donetsk River.
Area J (Izium) 2,000 personnel, 30 tanks, 100 armored personnel carriers/infantry fighting vehicles, 60 mortars, 50 artillery tubes, towed and self propelled, 40 MLRS. Forces include one battalion tactical group of the 1st Tank Brigade, one battalion tactical group of the 80th Airmobile Brigade, "PS" Battalion of the National Guard. This force is part of Kiev's operational reserve totaling 30,000 personnel.
Pro Russian Rebel forces deployments
Area 1 (Lugansk) 5,000 personnel, 30 tanks, 90 armored personnel carriers/infantry fighting vehicles, 100 mortars, 50 artillery tubes, towed and self propelled, 16 MLRS. No indications of length of the defensive frontage, but its current tasks including eliminating remnants of Ukrainian forces in pockets west of Lugansk and assisting forces committed to operations near Schastye (Area 2) on the left bank of the North Donetsk River. Note: Schastye is on the right bank of the river, while militia forces hold the left bank.
Area 2 (Around the left bank of the North Donetsk River, north of Lugansk city): 2,000 personnel, 10 tanks, 50 armored personnel carriers/infantry fighting vehicles, 30 mortars, 30 artillery tubes, towed and self propelled, 10 MLRS. Forces include the militia "Ghost" Brigade under the command of Alexei Brain. Defensive frontage is 90 kilometers.
Area 3 (Forms the western "wall" of the Ukrainian Zone H pocket, west of Lugansk): 800 personnel, three tanks, 15 armored personnel carriers/infantry fighting vehicles, and 20 mortars. Forces include the Don Cossack Army under the command of Ataman Kozitsyna. This area has been battered since the start of the war by repeated assaults from Ukrainian mechanized forces.
Area 4 (Gorlovka): Up to 2,000 personnel, zero tanks, 25 armored personnel carriers/infantry fighting vehicles, 40 mortars, 10 artillery tubes, towed and self propelled. Forces in the area include Brigade Igor Bezlera. Defensive frontage is 90 kilometers. Area of responsibility includes Gorlovka and Yenakievo.
Area 5 (Donetsk city): 14,000 personnel, 15 tanks, 100 armored personnel carriers/infantry fighting vehicles, 80 mortars, 16 artillery tubes, towed and self propelled and 10 MLRS. Defensive frontage is unspecified, but is small inasmuch as the general area of operation is very large. Forces deployed are unidentified. Area of responsibility includes Yenakievo, Krasnii Luch, Deakovo, Amvrosievka, Starobeshevo and Yelenovka.
Area 6 (Mariupol): 6,000 personnel, 28 tanks, 90 armored personnel carriers/infantry fighting vehicles, 60 mortars, 60 artillery tubes, towed and self propelled and 20 MLRS. Defensive frontage is unspecified but these forces are known to be deployed to block the western approaches to Mariupol, as well as conducting patrol operations against Ukrainian units in regions north of the city.
According to the author, Ukrainian forces currently deployed in Ukrainian Anti Terrorist Operation (ATO) enjoy a two to one advantage in personnel, but that ratio is declining. A total of 60,000 are currently deployed in southeastern Ukraina, but 29,000 are on the front line.
For the pro Russian militia, a total of 30,000 are available, not all of which are on the front line.
The most precarious position for the militias throughout the region is in and around Mariupol. Despite being the largest grouping, their operations depend on a slender supply line from Donetsk city, or about 40 kilometers defended by whatever forces in Area 6 (Mariupol) are not committed to the encirclement of Mariupol.
That area, immediately north of Mariupol has been where Ukrainian forces have marched in their effort to split the two republics in two, and where most of the vicious fighting has taken place, namely in Ilovaisk.
Pro Russian militias including one of its leaders, Igor Strelkov swear up and down the Russians are not helping with troops, a charge long ago leveled by the Ukrainians, albeit the issue of equipment is unaddressed. The only Russians in Donetsk or Lugansk are those soldiers who volunteered.
Pro Russian militia sympathizers have claimed in the past that the combat correlations are terrible for even a blitzkrieg type of assault since the militias appear to use a soft flexible defense that permits the heaviest attack to pass, but which then seals off the forces from supply and communications and slowly strangles it.
Chris Covert writes about foreign military issues for Rantburg.com. He can be reached at grurkka@gmail.com