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| -Signs, Portents, and the Weather- |
| Liberia: WHO says rate of new cases appears to be slowing |
| 2014-10-30 |
| [Washington Post] World Health Organization officials on Wednesday said they see "glimmers of hope" in Liberia, the epicenter of the Ebola epidemic, with strong evidence that the rate of new cases is declining for the first time since the crisis began. Bruce Aylward, the WHO's assistant director-general in charge of the operational response, said during a news conference in Geneva that he is both cautiously optimistic and terrified about the news. "It's like saying your pet tiger is under control," Aylward said. "This is a very, very dangerous disease." He explained that "the danger now is that instead of a steady downward trend we end up with an oscillating trend where the virus goes up and down" because people let down their guard and areas that were becoming clear of the virus become reinfected. Aylward said the recent decline in new cases "is real" and is confirmed not only by the scores of empty beds in many clinics, but also by a decrease in laboratory confirmed cases and in burials. As recently as a week ago, local officials expressed alarm that the virus was spreading exponentially. But Aylward said it appears that strategies such as tracing and monitoring those who had come into contact with Ebola patients, the adoption of safe burial practices and an aggressive public awareness campaign were working. |
| Posted by:Fred |
| #4 I anticipate a sudden surge in two weeks. |
| Posted by: Skidmark 2014-10-30 10:31 |
| #3 ...till it naturally mutates. One of the effects of isolation is to reduce the extent of mutation by restricting it's exposure to as small of an environment as possible. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2014-10-30 09:03 |
| #2 plus i forget which Rantburger said it, but some genius once said: A whole heap of people with natural immunity will start appearing - who didn't get sick or only mildly. Perhaps it will burn itself out and those left behind are naturally immune |
| Posted by: anon1 2014-10-30 01:37 |
| #1 The "slowing" could be because of the missing data for 5 days in october or because *The marked increase in the cumulative total number of cases compared with the situation report of 22 October results from a more comprehensive assessment of patient databases. The additional 3792 cases have occurred throughout the epidemic period, not only since 22 October." so WHO knows??? |
| Posted by: anon1 2014-10-30 01:25 |