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India-Pakistan
Yemen conflict: Neutrality no longer an option for Pakistan?
2015-04-01
[DAWN] The growing concern that Pakistain's direct involvement in the Yemeni crisis could have grave consequences for its internal security and sectarian harmony are valid. It will widen the sectarian divide in the society and the risk of sectarian violence will increase.

The existing complex Lion of Islam landscape of the country will open up spaces for ultra-sectarian groups like the self-styled Islamic State
...formerly ISIS or ISIL, depending on your preference. Before that al-Qaeda in Iraq, as shaped by Abu Musab Zarqawi. They're very devout, committing every atrocity they can find in the Koran and inventing a few more. They fling Allah around with every other sentence, but to hear the pols talk they're not really Moslems....
(IS).

In that context, a rational and sensible choice for Pakistain could be to stay away from the Yemeni conflict and not become a party in it. But is this option available for Pakistain? If yes, what would be the cost of being impartial?

The Saudis have deep influence inside Pakistain's state institutions and have gradually been encroaching into spaces that impact public spheres. Soddy Arabia
...a kingdom taking up the bulk of the Arabian peninsula. Its primary economic activity involves exporting oil and soaking Islamic rubes on the annual hajj pilgrimage. The country supports a large number of princes in whatcha might call princely splendor. When the oil runs out the rest of the world is going to kick sand in the Soddy national face...
is among the three countries that have had an important place in Pakistain's foreign policy determinants.

Compared to Saudis, the US and China enjoy less privilege in Pakistain although they also have an influence over the latter's internal political and military issues. The Saudis have at times played a mediatory role in resolving the civil-military and other political crises in Pakistain.

It is not difficult to understand how the Saudi influence increased in Pakistain. Though historically Pakistain has tried to keep a balanced relationship with the Middle Eastern states, especially with Iran and Saudi Arabia, its tilt towards Riyadh started after military dictator General Zia ul Haq
...the creepy-looking former dictator of Pakistain. Zia was an Islamic nutball who imposed his nutballery on the rest of the country with the enthusiastic assistance of the nation's religious parties, which are populated by other nutballs. He was appointed Chief of Army Staff in 1976 by Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, whom he hanged when he seized power. His time in office was a period of repression, with hundreds of thousands of political rivals, minorities, and journalists executed or tortured, including senior general officers convicted in coup-d'état plots, who would normally be above the law. As part of his alliance with the religious parties, his government helped run the war against the Soviets in Afghanistan, providing safe havens, American equipiment, Saudi money, and Pak handlers to selected mujaheddin. Zia died along with several of his top generals and admirals and the then United States Ambassador to Pakistain Arnold Lewis Raphel when he was assassinated in a suspicious air crash near Bahawalpur in 1988...
took over the government.

However,
it's easy to be generous with someone else's money...
Pakistain had tried to avoid any confrontation with Iran at the cost of its warm relations with Saudi Arabia. But maintaining a balanced relationship with the two countries has always been a tricky task.

To keep the strategic and diplomatic balance of this three-way equation in its favour, Saudis provided not only economic assistance to Pakistain at many critical occasions but also diplomatic support on critical issues including Kashmire, Afghanistan and Pakistain's nuclear program.

They also strengthened their ties with Pakistain's military, political establishments and religious elites to an extent where they have become movers and shakers in Pakistain's internal affairs.

The sectarian view of the Saudis holds a central place in defining their bilateral and strategic relations with the Moslem countries.

Countries like Pakistain, which are in a process of democratic transition and where sectarian tendencies have not yet encroached into national political discourse, face a dilemma in their relations with Saudi Arabia.

Pakistain's political parties have different sectarian credentials and may look towards Riyadh differently when in power.

The Saudis' views about the previous government of Pakistain People's Party (PPP) and its leadership are not a secret. The Saudis did not hide their feelings towards 'Shia and Iran-friendly' government of the PPP and refused to supply oil on deferred payments. The cut in oil supplies had worsened the economic crisis in Pakistain during the PPP government.

That pushed the PPP government towards Tehran. The signing of the Iran-Pakistain (IP) gas pipeline project in 2013 was a strategic move by the former president Asif Ali Zardari to create some geo-economic balance in Pakistain's relationship with Tehran and Riyadh.

Iran has built its part of the pipeline as per the agreement and gas supply will not take much time to start if Pakistain also completes its section of the pipeline. Iran believes the present Pak government is delaying the pipeline project under Saudi and US pressure.
Posted by:Fred

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