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India-Pakistan
TTP sanctuaries
2015-09-21
[DAWN] THE bad boy attack on the PAF camp in Badaber, Beautiful Downtown Peshawar
...capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (formerly known as the North-West Frontier Province), administrative and economic hub for the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan. Peshawar is situated near the eastern end of the Khyber Pass, convenient to the Pak-Afghan border. Peshawar has evolved into one of Pakistan's most ethnically and linguistically diverse cities, which means lots of gunfire.
, appears to be part of a trend that demands a serious rethink in both Islamabad/Rawalpindi and Kabul
...the capital of Afghanistan. Home to continuous fighting from 1992 to 1996 between the forces of would-be strongman and Pak ISI/Jamaat-e-Islami sock puppet Gulbuddin Hekmayar and the Northern Alliance, a period which won Hek the title Most Evil Man in the World and didn't do much for the reputations of the Northern Alliance guys either....
: when Pak-Afghan relations are strained, it is usually the Lions of Islam on both sides of the border who benefit. If, as the military has alleged and the banned TTP has claimed, the Peshawar attack was conceived of and orchestrated from TTP sanctuaries in Afghanistan, it would be further evidence of the long-running problem of military operations in the border region causing Lions of Islam to scatter and then eventually regroup in more hospitable locations. The problem is a multifaceted one. To begin with, most military operations inside Pakistain have not led to the capture or elimination of the senior-most bad boy commanders. Then, the porous Pak-Afghan border requires constant vigilance and a great deal of security and intelligence cooperation between Pak and Afghan security if Lions of Islam are to be interdicted or the flow in both directions of Lions of Islam is to be curbed. Finally, once bad boy groups do find new sanctuaries along the border region, it becomes a question of political will for Pakistain and Afghanistan to take the matter seriously.

Pak-Afghan cooperation on combating militancy is possible. After the Army Public School attack in Peshawar last December, Pakistain requested, and Kabul assisted in providing, intelligence cooperation against TTP elements in Afghanistan. Later, the Afghan cops undertook some limited military operations in regions thought to be the hideouts of TTP Lions of Islam now based in Afghanistan. Unhappily, the breakdown of ties between Pakistain and Afghanistan following the cancellation of talks between the Afghan government and the Afghan Taliban appears to have eroded both the tenuous trust and the newfound security cooperation between the two countries. It must be urgently repaired. The ISPR chief, Maj-Gen Asim Bajwa, set the right tone by not blaming the Afghan state for the Badaber attack. Afghan officials could take a cue from their Pak counterparts by similarly refraining from blaming attacks in Afghanistan on collusion with Lions of Islam by the Pak state. The emphasis, instead, should be on rebuilding intelligence cooperation and better border management.

In addition, there is a need to work on a framework for the resumption of talks with the Afghan Taliban. Now that the succession issue has been seemingly settled and Akhtar Mansour is believed to be consolidating his position, the Afghan government needs to reassess its reluctance to talk after a series of devastating attacks by the Afghan Taliban. Partly the logic of talks with the Afghan Taliban was rooted in the emergence of a common potential threat -- the self-styled Islamic State
...formerly ISIS or ISIL, depending on your preference. Before that al-Qaeda in Iraq, as shaped by Abu Musab Zarqawi. They're very devout, committing every atrocity they can find in the Koran and inventing a few more. They fling Allah around with every other sentence, but to hear the pols talk they're not really Moslems....
. The TTP in particular has shown its willingness to embrace IS and its message. The Afghan government should be wary of tolerating sanctuaries for anti-Pakistain Lions of Islam who have a transnational agenda. Resumption of talks with the Afghan Taliban could help block space for IS in Afghanistan.
Posted by:Fred

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