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| Caribbean-Latin America |
| Upcoming Venezuelan parliament elections: Neither landslide victory nor trashing defeat |
| 2015-11-22 |
| Four forces compete in the Venezuelan parliament vote of December 6: government, opposition, independents and abstention. The triumph of the opposition or the government in the upcoming Venezuelan parliament vote will depend on the influence of independents and abstention. In principle, though, independents and abstention rather harm the opposition. Why? Because they basically come from the higher social classes, where the opposition is most voted. There, the opposition-government ratio is more or less 70%-30%. However, they represent only 30% of the registry of voters. The remaining 70% is in the lower classes. There, pro-government voters prevail. Once the National Assembly is established, independents, after taking votes out from the Unified Democratic Panel (MUD), will become part of the opposition group. By December 6, the noted trend is that independents and abstention will remain at 30%-40%. Evil polarization, after more than 16 years, clearly shows exhaustion and despair. Just have a look at this number: more than 90% of Venezuelans demand dialogue. They want peace, and they think they cannot achieve it because of the conduct of hardcore government followers and dissenters. They back cohabitation. They regard agreements and talks as progress, social calm and economic improvement. They feel that this could lead to consensus able to improve economy, increase production and dismount fanaticism, intransigent ideology and hatred among Venezuelans. Do political stockholders realize it? It does not seem so, as polarization is the object and subject of their strategy. Meanwhile, a giant mass of voters takes sides with either the government or the opposition. Political polarization has been merciless, to such an extent that each party makes its existence conditional upon inexistence of the other party. Hence, they act and yell in terms of extermination. Either them or us! In the roadmap of both sides polarization is the strategy. An eventual tight result, let's say, 84 deputies on the one hand and 83 deputies on the other hand, could fuel violence the very December 6. The situation could reach a deadlock. And they would be forced to agree on some important public affairs to prevent the State and the government from coming to a halt. As for me, on December 6 nobody will get a landslide victory or a crushing defeat. May God have mercy on us! |
| Posted by:Pappy |
| #1 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-34897150 Conservative Mauricio Macri wins Argentina presidency |
| Posted by: 3dc 2015-11-22 20:10 |