You have commented 339 times on Rantburg.

Your Name
Your e-mail (optional)
Website (optional)
My Original Nic        Pic-a-Nic        Sorry. Comments have been closed on this article.
Bold Italic Underline Strike Bullet Blockquote Small Big Link Squish Foto Photo
China-Japan-Koreas
North Korea Says It Has Detonated Its First Hydrogen Bomb
2016-01-06
Thanks to 3dc for the tip.
North Korea declared on Tuesday that it had detonated its first hydrogen bomb.

The assertion, if true, would dramatically escalate the nuclear challenge from one of the world’s most isolated and dangerous states. In an announcement, North Korea said that the test had been a “complete success.” But it was difficult to tell whether the statement was true. North Korea has made repeated claims about its nuclear capabilities that outside analysts have greeted with skepticism.
There is the seismic evidence...
“This is the self-defensive measure we have to take to defend our right to live in the face of the nuclear threats and blackmail by the United States and to guarantee the security of the Korean Peninsula,” a female North Korean announcer said, reading the statement on Central Television, the state-run network.

The North’s announcement came about an hour after detection devices around the world had picked up a 5.1 seismic event along the country’s northeast coast. It may be weeks or longer before detectors sent aloft by the United States and other powers can determine what kind of test was conducted. Ned Price, a spokesman for the White House National Security Council, said in a statement that American officials “cannot confirm these claims at this time.”

But he said the White House expected “North Korea to abide by its international obligations and commitments.”
Expect all you like, Ned, but the Norks have a record of not doing so...
The tremors occurred at or near the Punggye-ri nuclear test site, where three previous tests have been conducted over the past nine years.

In recent weeks, the North’s aggressive young leader, Fat Bastard Kim Jong-un, has boasted that the country has finally developed the technology to build a thermonuclear weapon — far more powerful than the low-yield devices tested first in 2006, then in different configurations months after President Obama took office in 2009 and again in 2013. The North Korean announcement said the test had been personally ordered by the corpulent Mr. Kim, only three days after he signed an order on Sunday for North Korean engineers to press ahead with the attempt.

The announcer added that for the North to give up its nuclear weapons while Washington’s “hostile policy” continued would be “as foolish as for a hunter to lay down his rifle while a ferocious wolf is charging at him.”

Satellite photographs analyzed by 38 North, a Washington research institute that follows the North’s nuclear activity closely, showed evidence of a new tunnel being dug in recent weeks.

Another test by itself would not be that remarkable. The North is believed to have enough plutonium for eight to 12 weapons, and several years ago it revealed a new program to enrich uranium, the other fuel for a nuclear weapon. But if the North Korean claim about a hydrogen bomb is true, this test was of a different, and significantly more threatening, nature.

In recent weeks, the enormous Mr. Kim boasted that North Korea had finally developed the technology to build a thermonuclear weapon. When the decadent Mr. Kim first made the claim, in December, the White House expressed considerable skepticism, and several other experts say that the accomplishment would be a stretch, though not impossible.

Outside analysts took the claim as the latest of several hard-to-verify assertions that the isolated country has made about its nuclear capabilities. But some also said that although North Korea did not yet have H-bomb capability, it might be developing and preparing to test a boosted fission bomb, more powerful than a traditional nuclear weapon. Weapon designers can easily boost the destructive power of an atom bomb by putting at its core a small amount of tritium, a radioactive form of hydrogen.

Lee Sang-cheol, the top nonproliferation official at the South Korean Defense Ministry, told a forum in Seoul last month that although Mr. Kim’s hydrogen bomb boasts might be propaganda for his domestic audience, there was a “high likelihood” that North Korea might have been developing such a boosted fission weapon.

And according to a paper obtained by the South Korean news agency Yonhap last week, the Chemical, Biological and Radiological Command of the South Korean military “did not rule out the possibility” of a boosted fission bomb test by the North, although it added it “does not believe it is yet capable of directly testing hydrogen bombs.”

For the Obama administration, which only six months ago supposedly defused the Iranian nuclear threat with an agreement to surrender limit its capabilities for at least a decade, the announcement rekindles another major nuclear challenge — one that the administration has never found a way to manage.

The North has refused to enter the kind of negotiations that Iran did. Unlike Iran, which denies it has interest in nuclear weapons, the North has forged ahead with tests and told the West and China it would never give them up.

Mr. Obama, determined not to give the country new concessions, has neither acknowledged that North Korea is now a nuclear power nor negotiated with it. The White House has said that it would only restart talks with the North if the goal — agreed to by all parties — was a “denuclearized Korean Peninsula.”

China has also failed in its efforts to rein in Mr. Kim.
China has the ability to curb its dog whenever it wants. That it has not done so to this point suggests that there has not been on attempt to "rein in" Pudgy in any significant way. It's all theater done for the benefit of gullible Western analysts...
He has never been invited to Beijing since his father’s death, and Chinese officials are fairly open in their expressions of contempt for him. But they have not abandoned him, or cut off the aid that keeps the country afloat.

With the test conducted Tuesday night — Wednesday in North Korea — three of the North’s four explosions will have occurred during Mr. Obama’s time in office.
They'll still blame Bush...
Combined with the North’s gradually increasing missile technology,
Developed in cooperation with Iran...
its nuclear program poses a growing threat to the region — though it is still not clear the North knows how to mount a nuclear weapon on one of its missiles.
That's just an engineering problem...
The test is bound to figure in the American presidential campaign, where several candidates have already cited the North’s nuclear experimentation as evidence of American weakness — though they have not prescribed alternative strategies for choking off the program.
Posted by:Steve White

#18  * LUCIANNE > [AP] NORTH KOREA BOMB TEST COULD FURTHER IMPERIL [NoKor] RELATIONS WID CHINA.

Yuuup - CHINA = BREAKING CHINA'S HOLD ON HIS COUNTRY IS SSSHHHH ...PCCCCCC PUDGY'S COVERT REAL TARGET OR FOCII, NOTSOMUCH THE US-ALLIES.

and

* JAPAN TIMES > COMMENTARY: PACIFIC DREAMING IN MOSCOW.

Salvation for Pudgy???

Does DARTH VLAD/VLADVEDEV = OWG CO-SUPERPOWER RISING RUSSIA have the NATIONAL WILL + RESOURCES + STABLE ECON, ETC. to be able to confront fellow OWG CO-SUPERPOWER RISING CHINA OVER NORTH KOREA + OTHER IN EAST ASIA-PACIFIC, + WHILE RUSSIA IS STILL HEAVILY TIED UP ON ITS WESTERN SIDE???

Pugdy = NOKOR is walking a dangerous, poten EXISTENTIAL tightrope by trying to accomplish several parallel agendas at same time.
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2016-01-06 23:14  

#17  I'm still trying to figure out which of the top 20 largest American cities that I would miss.
Posted by: Pliny Hupaviter4091   2016-01-06 22:29  

#16  * PACIFICNEWSCENTER GU K-57 this AM > GUAM IN THE MIDDLE OF RISING TENSIONS BETWEEN US, CHINA, + RUSSIA.

Yuuuup, GOD + MADONNA + NOSTRADAMUS + 1960's-1970s Guam Taotamonas still on the money or mark in New Year 2016.

[LOOKING GRIMACINGLY/ANGRILY AT US ARMY VIETNAM SOLDIER, FUTURE CLINTON ADMIN VPOTUS AL GORE + M-16 here].

lol.
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2016-01-06 20:07  

#15  Iff KJU = Pudgy can detonate an alleged MINI H-BOMB = MINI-NUKE, it won't be long before his Country will be able to detonate a FULL-SIZED H-BOMB OR NUKE.

AFAIC NOKOR's action is ultimately covertly about its relationship wid overlord CHINA + wanting to break free from the latter's domination.

As I've said or inferred many times before, China will NOT allow formal Reunification between the two Koreas until it first gets back TAIWAN once-n-forevar. KJU = Pudgy has to find a way to prevent NOKOR State + Econ collapse while also preventing Chinese takeover, espec annexation, for any reason, + while keeping alive both NOKOR"s brand of State Socialism + relevancy of the Kim Family per se to any new post-Reunification Unified Govt + other.

WOULDN'T SURPISE AT ALL IFF PUDGY KEEPS A CASE OR TWO OF MAALOX + ASPIRIN AT HIS SIDE AT ALL TIMES.

* FYI IIRC GUAM PDN this wet Guam AM > [AP] US INSTITUTE: NORTH KOREA STILL WORKING ON SUBMARINE-LAUNCHED MISSLE.
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2016-01-06 19:58  

#14  "They'll still blame Bush...

Actually, it was Mr. Clinton who worked out an "agreement" with the Norks."

Doesn't matter, Pappy. The usual suspects will still blame Bush. And probably Reagan.

Posted by: Barbara   2016-01-06 19:32  

#13  Testing at reduced yield would avoid blowing out the test tunnel and contaminating their country.
50kt would make a nice package suitable for MIRVing a missile. The United Kingdom uses 100kt warheads on its Trident SLBM missiles with yields of 0.3 (unboosted primary), 5-10kt (adjusting tritium boosting) and 100t (full yield)
Posted by: John Frum   2016-01-06 15:14  

#12  The yield Y of a nuclear explosion is given by the equation
M = a + b log Y
where a and b are empirically determined constants for the test site and M is the magnitude.

Initial reports gave the a magnitude of 5.1

for the Novaya Zemlya test site, the eqn would be
5.1 = 4.45 + 0.75 log Y
this gives a yield Y of 7.3 kt

for Nevada Test Site, it would be
5.1 = 3.92 + 0.81 log Y
this gives a Y of 28.6 kt

Nobody has calibrated the North Korean test site and so the empirical constants can only be guessed, based on presumed geology (or chosen to give the yield you wish to claim).
You have estimates of 7 to 29 depending on the numbers you choose and measurement used.
Posted by: John Frum   2016-01-06 15:05  

#11  So is North Korea completely out of the Chinese control now or is this at the behest of Bejing?
Posted by: rjschwarz   2016-01-06 14:58  

#10  And the North Korean test site has never been calibrated to obtain the empirical constants used to estimate yield. Any figures given by outsiders are just guesses,
Posted by: John Frum   2016-01-06 14:54  

#9  All this talk of NoKo being unable to mount a warhead on a missile is garbage.
AQ Khan provided Libya with engineering blueprints for a Chinese designed missile warhead, The Chinese gave this design to Pakistan and Pakistan gave it to everybody else, including North Korea, with whom it shared bomb technology in exchange for missile technology. The Chinese have the North Koreans the missile tech. The aim of both proliferations was to encourage nuclear and missile free zones in east asia and south asia, neutering India, Japan, South Korea as they get locked into decnuclearization agreements with NoKo and Pakistan. Unfortunately for China, India won't play ball, and Japan while non nuclear on paper could build a large and sophisticated arsenal very quickly.
Posted by: John Frum   2016-01-06 14:50  

#8  Nukes emit lots of light when they go off, Well they did call him the light bringer didn't they?
Posted by: Bright Pebbles   2016-01-06 14:32  

#7  From State via Top Secret e-mail:
"Fear notteth of banquetting blackmail.
Without our Heinz ketchup
Kim never can catch up
The gap in atomic shrimp cocktail."
Posted by: Zenobia Floger6220   2016-01-06 14:00  

#6  No, Ned's not exactly objecting:
"We're more in the way of expecting!"
Is little shit regnant
A little bit pregnant?
"Let's pause once again for reflecting."
Posted by: Zenobia Floger6220   2016-01-06 13:43  

#5  I would bet my paycheck they had Iranian help. Heck, this might even be an Iranian test as well. What better way to test a bomb? Especially if it isn't in your country.
Posted by: DarthVader   2016-01-06 13:13  

#4  They'll still blame Bush...

Actually, it was Mr. Clinton who worked out an "agreement" with the Norks.

As an aside, it appears that the NorKs also had a successful test of a sub-launched missile as well.
Posted by: Pappy   2016-01-06 12:07  

#3  yes, mounting a nuclear weapon on a missile is 'just an engineering problem' but it is a difficult one

U-235 bombs are pretty heavy and bulky

Pu-239 bombs can be made lighter and smaller but Pu-239 is not so easy to work with

also there is the 'ignition at the right time' issue

airplanes make a better delivery system for threshold and post 'first test' nuclear weapons powers

Posted by: lord garth   2016-01-06 11:58  

#2  In many ways the perfect metaphor for Champ's time in office.

Hey Chaps, no more on the job training for presidents. What do you say?
Posted by: Iblis   2016-01-06 11:01  

#1  detection devices around the world had picked up a 5.1 seismic event along the country’s northeast coast

USGS summary detail
Posted by: Skidmark   2016-01-06 10:17  

00:00