North Korea is preparing to launch a long-range ballistic missile, possibly within a week, the Japanese government believes. Kyodo News on Thursday quoted a Japanese government source as saying that analysis of recent satellite images shows movement of vehicles and people near the North's missile launch pad at Tongchang-ri, North Pyongan Province.
The U.S. confirmed that preparations are taking place. "The indications are that they are preparing for some kind of launch," a US official said according to AFP. He added people on the ground seem to be readying for "a regular space launch."
But the official added it is unclear whether the launch will go ahead. "Could be for a satellite or a space vehicle -- there are a lot of guesses. North Korea does this periodically, they move things back and forth. There’s nothing to indicate it’s ballistic missile related," he said.
U.S. Defense Department spokesman Bill Urban urged the North to immediately stop actions and rhetoric that disturb peace and security in the region, but concentrate on taking solid measures to fulfill its international obligations.
Japan's National Security Council chaired by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met to discuss a response.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying also urged the North not to take any rash action and to avoid a vicious cycle of tensions.
The North began modernizing the Tongchang-ri launch site after it launched a space rocket with an estimated range of 10,000 km there in December 2012. It reportedly finished building a new mobile prefabricated structure late last year. This will allow it to assemble a missile on site out of the view of spy satellites.
But the South Korean military said it has detected no signs that indicate an imminent launch of a long-range missile. But it believes that this is likely in the near future because the North may want to put pressure on the U.S. and seek internal unity ahead of the Workers Party congress in May.
"It's true that there is a possibility of a surprise launch, but there're no sign that indicates an imminent launch." a Defense Ministry official said.
Intelligence authorities believe that the North would first have to transport a three-stage rocket from a missile plant near Pyongyang to Tongchang-ri, and none have been spotted.
The height of a tower at the launch pad at Tongchang-ri has been increased from 50 m to 66 m, allowing for a longer, more powerful rocket to be launched.
But the North has not yet declared a no-fly zone in the area.
Some pundits believe North Korea could feel emboldened by China's inaction after its latest nuclear test. "China's lukewarm response has paved the way for it to launch another missile," said Choi Kang of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies.