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| Putin could take the Baltics in 60 hours (PDF) |
| 2016-02-02 |
| From the executive summary: • Across multiple games using a wide range of expert participants playing both sides, the longest it has taken Russian forces to reach the outskirts of Tallinn and Riga is 60 hours. • Such a rapid defeat would leave NATO with a limited number of options, all bad. • Having a force of about seven brigades, including three heavy armored brigades—adequately supported by airpower, land-based fires, and other enablers on the ground and ready to fight at the onset of hostilities— might prevent such an outcome. • While not sufficient for a sustained defense of the region or to restore NATO members’ territorial integrity, such a posture would fundamentally change the strategic picture from Moscow. I think the contention that the Russian Army could take the Baltics in 60 hours or less is optimistic. I think it would take them at least a week, if the breaks all went their way. Going for a country drive atop a T-72 tank, they could possibly arrive in Vilnius inside of 60 hours, but with Russian army logistics stuck in the 1940s, plenty of reasons exist why they won't. Just three crippled tanks from mechanical failure alone would be enough to affect the combat readiness of a tank battalion, or to stop it cold. A recent study by western militaries concluded that they were wrong about the Russians continuing with their air campaign in Syria; that their rust bucket navy was a better than they thought. If you saw all the money and effort being poured into surface combatants and the Russian navy, you well would understand why they have performed so well to date. The Russians should have learned after WWII and from observing our recent military attacks in Iraq, it is one thing to drive armored forces into an area, and moved your rifles there and establish order, but it is another matter altogether to hold your gains. |
| Posted by:badanov |
| #4 Russians are involved in Syria and Ukraine. Unless Putin thinks expanding to fight all of NATO is wise I think this is unlikely right now. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2016-02-02 16:24 |
| #3 Unlike the Chinese, Russians went through all it before. The code word for the present is Finlandization. p.s. I'm not sure Chinese don't understand that independent Taiwan is not more valuable to them. |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2016-02-02 09:00 |
| #2 ...same reason the Chinese keep planning to invade Taiwan. Base human territorial instincts. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2016-02-02 08:54 |
| #1 Why? |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2016-02-02 02:59 |