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Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

10 maps that explain Russia's strategy

2016-03-01

Also at Forbes if you have a subscription. Superb commentary and, as advertised, 10 maps that explain why Russia behaves the way it does. Quite enlightening, and I'm sure badanov will have some thoughts. Recommended.

Hard to argue the basic notion that Russia wants as much of a buffer as they can get. The maps also, albeit unwittingly, explain why Russia took over the Crimea. Since the advent of the aircraft, Russia has needed its "aircraft carrier" and naval ports in Krimea. The Maidan coup musta scared the living hell out of the Rooshun general staff, when it likely implemented plans to retain its naval bases there.

As an aside, I think Putin is carefully watching Ukraine because in the next three years as several of Ukraine's state run enterprises are about to be sold on the market. If Russian businessmen/oligarchs/cronies can get a piece of that action the Russians may come to terms.

That said, Crimea is gone to Russian hands forever. The Russians will not give it up because it is too large a part of their national security structure.

If anything, Russia's strategy reminds me of that espoused by nationalist politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky back in 1995, who wanted the early Russian governments to negotiate spheres of influence with the west. The US could have Latin American, Europe could have Africa, and Russia could have the middle east and southern Asia.

But Russia's strategy is limited in that it relies on having Russian speakers in all the right places, sufficient enough to enable some kind of pro Russian republicanism, whereby Russia can exert its power to establish a protectorate.

I doubt the Russians would want to attempt to overrun eastern Europe again. They did it in 1945 when their military power was overwhelming, and but for the power of the United States at the time, unchallenged. Now, although the Russian Army's equipment and esprit de corps is as good as it has ever been, Putin has sunk all his ducats into a much larger navy, and has reinforced his navy to pursue a littoral naval strategy.

Posted by:Steve White

#6 Russia does not have the option of assuming that the West’s interest in the region comes from good intentions.

Can't blame 'em. Would you trust this man?

Posted by: Ebbang Uluque6305 2016-03-01 16:08

#5 Reading 200 years of Russian history (we can start with Peter the Great) will explain Russia's strategy, or for that part much of European social-political-economic strategy. China's goes back 2000 years, but basically is the same. They had a much earlier head start on national identity and empire building.

Posted by: Procopius2k 2016-03-01 08:25

#4 Unhappy or not, it just takes a few artillery pieces and rockets to close the Bosporus and the Dardanelles. The Turkish cork is in the Russian bottle...

Posted by: Steve White 2016-03-01 07:54

#3 reinforced his navy to pursue a littoral naval strategy.

The Montreux Convention still rankles with the Russians, who feel an unfair treaty was forced upon them.

Posted by: phil_b 2016-03-01 04:15

#2 Don't forget Kosovo---where slick Willie listening to his EU friends convinced Russians that Drang nach Osten is on again.

Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2016-03-01 04:04

#1 See also WAFF > THE END OF RUSSIA? ... TURKEY WILL EMERGE AS A MAJOR POWER IN AREAS WHERE RUSSIA [once] DOMINATED | [News.com.AU] RUSSIA SET TO LOSE POPULATION, POWER AND INFLUENCE, [StratFor] REPORT PREDICTS.

Rise of OWG Co-Superpower TURKEY???

RUSSIA = "WEAK/DECLING" US, RISING TURKEY = RISING CHINA???

VERSUS

* WAFF > [Ria.RU] RUSSIAN ADMIRAL: "WE WILL FLOOD THE MEDITERRANEAN WID KILOS" [SSKS]. BIG ORDER ON WAY TO ENSURE SOVIET [now Russian] SUPERIORITY IN THE BLACK SEA AND MED, NO NATO FORCE WILL BE ALLOWED DOMINANCE.

* SAME > PUTIN DEPLOYS SAMS TO NORTH KOREAN BORDER FEARING [NOKOR = Kim] REGIME COLLAPSE.

IMO ARTIC also read, SSSHHH ... CCCCC DETER CHINESE DESIGNS/AMBITIONS ON RUSSIAN-CONTROLLED SAKHALIN + RUSSIA'S FAR EAST.

Darth Putin isolating the coming US-JAPAN-vs-CHINA Battlefield in KOREAS???

Posted by: JosephMendiola 2016-03-01 02:08

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