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| Turkey: Another U.S. Intelligence Failure |
| 2016-07-22 |
| [RealClearDefense] A less-well known but vital outcome of NATO's Warsaw summit was the Alliances' decision to create an intelligence and security division from among its existing organizations. This move is long overdue. There is a plethora of threats facing Europe and the United States, and yet the West has a record of intelligence failures that has come to characterize its policy today. As media reports indicate, the Turkish coup caught virtually the entire US foreign policy establishment by surprise; analysts were writing up to the last moment that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's control over the military seemed secure. Intelligence failures are always going to occur no matter how governments structure their intelligence networks, but this is only the latest in a series of policy failures in which governments have blamed their intelligence organizations. In this regard, the US record is stunning. We already know that the US government and intelligence services failed to grasp the planning for 9/11 or to understand the realities in Iraq prior to the 2003 invasion, including the absence of nuclear weapons there. Additionally, as former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates admitted, the Untied States failed to grasp the scope of China's military buildup, and did not realize that Russia would attack Georgia in 2008. More significantly, the United States missed the full nature of changes underway in the Russian military after 2008. Although it was clear to many analysts that Russian President Vladimir Putin would invade if Ukraine signed an association agreement with the EU and launched a westernizing revolution, the Obama administration--despite warnings from its intelligence community--could not formulate a coherent assessment of what was happening. In fact, Ukrainian parliamentarians told me in October 2013 that they believed Putin would invade if Ukraine signed the accords with the EU; it is incomprehensible that the US Embassy did not know this. And if it did, the administration should have. |
| Posted by:Blossom Unains5562 |
| #13 HUMINT vs. SIGINT Tom Clancy had a fair amount to say on this subject. |
| Posted by: AlanC 2016-07-22 15:50 |
| #12 I think they like to hold their precious way too closely. Being in on Double Rock Above Top Secret I think must be some kinda euphoric. Don't go to church tomorrow sweetness. Why not? After last night I need redemption! Can't tell you, it's triple rock classified. Don't go! Foreign Powers are going to be mean tomorrow. How do you know this? What color is your nightie? Purple? Exactly! Tell no one. |
| Posted by: Shipman 2016-07-22 13:39 |
| #11 In fairness, this may be selection bias - we don't hear about stuff they get right. My personal pet theory is they rely too much on SIGINT (aka technology) and too little HUMINT Very astute assessment. There are of course others, but two significant reasons: 1. Technology is where the $$ money $$ is at. 2. HUMINT is time consuming, painstaking, and very difficult. To your comment about 'not hearing stuff they get right.' If I'm riding on the one with the engine fires in #2 and #3, I more or less ambivalent about Delta's superb safety record. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2016-07-22 13:30 |
| #10 #2 Whe was the last time some event didn't caught Besoeker's Klingons by surprise? They do seem to miss events at all scales; big ones like the collapse of the fUSSR and little ones like some building in the Balkans being a Chinese embassy. In fairness, this may be selection bias - we don't hear about stuff they get right. My personal pet theory is they rely too much on SIGINT (aka technology) and too little HUMINT - actual people walking down the street. Understandable in a way, since humans are a lot messier to deal with. |
| Posted by: SteveS 2016-07-22 13:21 |
| #9 Consider that when you see what happens to careers that tell the leaders wheat they don't want to hear, however accurate, you stop telling them. Instead you keep your head down. And in time see them salting the entire system with their people in career management, so you move on and willing dupes backfill you. Then you get pretty stories that assure and calm everyone until an ooops and then you cover up and invent something. After all, Champ has read the world is less violent since he assumed the throne. And he wants us to know it. |
| Posted by: NoMoreBS 2016-07-22 13:10 |
| #8 When you fill the intel community full of true believers and political operatives with an agenda and marching orders, what do you expect of intel that doesn't fit the narrative If Trump is elected, he's going to have to literally gut Langley to get any kind of accurate and actionable intel. |
| Posted by: Bill Clinton 2016-07-22 13:10 |
| #7 Just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get me. |
| Posted by: Abu Uluque 2016-07-22 10:39 |
| #6 The same question goes for Besoeker's mug shots. |
| Posted by: Abu Uluque 2016-07-22 10:36 |
| #5 Wait a minute. With all the speculation this was a Reichstag fire, how do we know Obama wasn't in on it? |
| Posted by: Abu Uluque 2016-07-22 10:35 |
| #4 Additional "intelligence failures." |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2016-07-22 07:08 |
| #3 Obama doesn't even read the intel briefs so if they had been correct, as Hil said, what difference would it make at this point |
| Posted by: lord garth 2016-07-22 06:02 |
| #2 Whe was the last time some event didn't caught Besoeker's Klingons by surprise? |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2016-07-22 03:55 |
| #1 Not really an intelligence failure because the last people that needed to know about it was the US. Considering their lack of intelligence, and their infusion of failures, I would say save these MEN from the hands GOD did what they must before the whole state became a islamic bastard child from hell. Well they tried. They need to be saved from from Erdogon for the best and last try department of the now or never club. What you missed was losing a Nation like Turkey was less important than losing the war against Daesh which you lost when you failed to keep Iraq and Her Citizens safe from the Saddam army that would ultimately plunge you ALL into hell. Hence, I go back on my meds and watch you scramble because you could not do the simpelist things to keep this bullshit at bay in the easiest form. Erdo needs to go, and if you cannot see that now... You should NOT HAVE A JOB IN INTELLIGENCE> Only GOD and the AF Commander planned this. Tell the toad that. |
| Posted by: newc 2016-07-22 01:07 |