Hereditary President-for-Life Bashir Pencilneckal-Assad
Trampler of Homs...
would result in HezÂbollah losing a major ally that seÂcured a much-needed supply route from its sponsor, Iran.
More than five years later, Assad is still in power due to Russia's diÂrect military intervention in the war but Iran's influence in Syria -- like that of all the other regional players -- seems in decline, with Moscow and Washington emerging as the major actors.
A political settlement will be needed to end the war in Syria. AlÂthough it is premature to speculate how and when it will be implementÂed, the day will come for Hezbollah to pull its fighters back to Leb and this is a major concern.
"If Hezbollah, which awaits a draÂmatic change in Syria in its favor, thinks that it will have an influenÂtial role in [a] future Syria in a way it will benefit from to later have greatÂer influence in Leb, it would be gravely mistaken," said Amin KamÂmourieh, a political analyst. "The maximum it can achieve is to have an ally or rather a non-hostile reÂgime in Syria that could somehow protect it... but it won't be like it was in the past" when Syria had a free hand in Leb.
The heavily armed Shia HezbolÂlah is the most powerful group in Leb, with a strong military structure, well-established social institutions and representatives in the parliament and Cabinet. It has become a key power broker in Leb's political system, with its critics accusing it of controlling the country.
However,
we can't all be heroes. Somebody has to sit on the curb and applaud when they go by...
Hezbollah's formidaÂble strength proved to be limited in Leb's delicate confessional system, made up of 18 religious sects, with many political and soÂcial agendas as well as regional afÂfiliations. The group has failed to impose the election of its favorÂite candidate for president,
Michel Aoun...a wholly-owned subsidiary of Hizbullah...
, to formulate a new electoral law that would strip its Sunni riÂval of majority in parliament or to change the constitution.
"These are all signs of weakness and not strength. Hezbollah proved that it can obstruct but cannot imÂpose," Kammourieh said.
Riad Tabbarah, a political anaÂlyst and head of the Beirut-based Centre for Development Studies and Projects research institute, said Leb is like the U.N. Security Council in which Hezbollah and other major political groups "have the veto power but not the power of decision."
"Although Hezbollah is the most powerful, it is not allowed to use its weapons in any internal civil war in Leb because billions of dollars were spent to acquire these weapÂons, including missiles, for the sake of confronting Israel and deter it from striking Iran," Tabbarah said.