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| Brexit Betting Pattern Looks Like Trump's Betting Pattern |
| 2016-10-19 |
| Remember all the dire predictions that were going to happen if Britain decided to pull out of the EU, including the start of World War III? Nothing happened, other than a panic drop in the British market and pound sterling, both of which recovered within a few weeks after the vote. I did, in fact, note this leading up to the Brexit vote - the betting pattern leading up to the vote was for Britain to remain - a few big money bets for remain (Bremain, whatever) and a numeric majority of the small bets for Brexit, which is how the actual vote panned out. We are now seeing the same pattern playing out during the last month of the US election - dire predictions of Trump the Next Hitler becoming president, a relentless media push to demonize and demoralize Trump supporters (as noted by Steve White in an earlier post), and the same betting pattern that we saw a mere four months ago with Brexit. If you also take into account massive attendance for Trump at his rallies and scant attendance at Hillary campaigns, I cannot believe any of these polls are accurate, as much as they oversample Dems to get their desired result. If this pattern holds, and Trump does well tonight, Trump wins this thing. [Independent] It is news that will strike fear into the hearts of perhaps half of America and large chunks of the world outside of it. Despite a calamitous week of campaigning, betting markets on the US election are almost a mirror image of those on Britain’s EU referendum at this stage. And they could be pointing to a victory for Donald Trump. Bookmaker William Hill says 71 per cent of the money so far staked is for Democrat Hillary Clinton. But 65 per cent of the bets by number are for the controversial Republican. That means a lot more punters are putting smaller bets on Trump, almost exactly the same pattern as was seen in the run up to the Brexit vote when the money was for Remain but the majority of bets were for Leave. The bookie has cut the odds on a Trump victory from 11-2 to 4-1 over the past two days in response to a surge in bets for the reality TV star and businessman turned politician. |
| Posted by:Raj |
| #4 |
| Posted by: Skidmark 2016-10-19 16:43 |
| #3 Raj,I love ya man. But no. I cover at 9-1. |
| Posted by: Shipman 2016-10-19 16:06 |
| #2 It's interesting. With all the posturing there's been around the world on the subject, they will be scrambling should Mr. Trump be the winner...which will give President Trump a very strong negotiating position when dealing with them*. Actually, it will give President H. Clinton s stronger hand at first, too, simply for not being him, but I expect she'll drive her husband nuts when she doesn't use that edge properly. * He and Bibi Netanyahu should get on like a house afire as they speak the same language -- Bibi with his Harvard MBA and architecture MS and Donald with his from Wharton and experience in the hospitality business -- but the Israeli Left and the Arab List politicians will find themselves even farther in the wilderness than they are now. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2016-10-19 14:58 |
| #1 The Brits still have not adopted the 'rigging' that is a long American tradition. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2016-10-19 14:43 |