By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
Questions have been coming up in online discussions about ammunition prices going down and how fast because of the election of Donald J. Trump.
This is what I tell anyone who asks:
Ammunition prices will likely rise in the short term between now and Christmas because of the holidays. Due to the holidays ammunition manufacturers may slack off production temporarily. Add to that that ammunition goes up during this period because it makes a good Christmas stocking stuffer.
I have been tracking ammunition prices over the last three and a half years, and I have yet to see ammunition price movements due to non-market factors.
If ammunition prices do go down this summer, it will be more likely because of the price of inputs: metals, powder, labor, etc. But make no mistake. The election of Trump will have a real impact on markets, if he is as free market oriented as he has hinted in the past.
California passed a background check law for ammunition this election. It will be interesting to see how the new law is implemented. The last time I went to California was in the early 1990s, when border guards were posted to inspect for agricultural products. Californians will probably ignore the new law and make ammunition buys in other states, the interception of which could involve those border guards.
Nevadans passed a universal background check law for their state, so unless my math is off, they are the ninth state to enact a universal background check law. So, if we see a higher spike in NICS background checks this summer, this new law will be a factor in that higher number.
Maine voters voted down the same law for their state.
To get an idea of how effective the Washington state background check law has been since it was passed in 2014, it is worth noting that none of the five individuals shot in Seattle on election night died.
Seattle passed a gun purchase tax on the heels of the universal background check law, and it seems no one wants to sell guns in Seattle anymore. So projected revenues are probably down, but you wouldn't know it by the way the city government acts.
How good will Trump be for the Right to Keep and Bear Arms? I have my doubts. His opening bid is awfully weak, proposing fixes to a system that can't possibly be fixed. Add to that the fact that government agents ignore the laws that Congress passed, all without the new president making note of that, bodes ill for the 2nd Amendment.
Lastly, I have been guilty of this. If you have read this column for very long, you'll recall my homemade bipod for the Mosin-Nagant rifle. Compared to other bipods, it looked terribly amatuerish. But the bipod improved my aiming on the Mosin, so how stupid looking does it have to be to work? The Mosin doesn't lend itself very well to accessories, although Lord knows it has been tried.
Loads.
Rantburg's summary for arms and ammunition:
Prices for pistol ammunition were mostly higher. Prices for rifle ammunition were mixed.
Prices for used pistols were mixed. Prices for used rifles were mixed.
New Lows:
None.
Pistol Ammunition
.45 Caliber, 230 Grain, From Last Week: Unchanged (4 Weeks)
Cheapest, 50 rounds: Outdoor Limited, Tulammo, FMJ, Steel Casing, .24 per round
Cheapest Bulk, 500 rounds: Outdoor Limited, Tulammo, FMJ, Steel Casing, .24 per round (From Last week: Unchanged (3 Weeks))
.40 Caliber Smith & Wesson, 180 Grain, From Last Week: +.02 Each After Unchanged (2Q, 2016)
Cheapest, 50 rounds: Ammo Mart, Buffalo Cartridge, RSFP, Brass Casing, .20 per round
Cheapest Bulk, 500 rounds: Freedom Ammunition, Own Brand, Brass Casing, Reloads, .22 per round (From Last Week: +.01 Each After Unchanged (2 Weeks))
9mm Parabellum, 115 Grain, From Last Week: +.01 Each After Unchanged (2 Weeks)
Cheapest, 50 rounds: Cheaper Than Dirt!, Tulammo, FMJ, Steel Casing, .17 per round
Cheapest Bulk, 1,000 rounds: J&G Sales, Tulammo, FMJ, Steel casing, .16 per round (From Last Week: Unchanged (3 Weeks))
.357 Magnum, 158 Grain, From Last Week: +.02 Each After Unchanged (2Q, 2016)
Cheapest, 50 rounds: Outdoor Limited, Tulammo, FMJ, Steel Casing, .25 per round
Cheapest Bulk: 1,000 rounds: J&G Sales, Tulammo, FMJ, Steel casing, .25 per round (From Last Week: Unchanged (2 Weeks))
Rifle Ammunition
.223 Caliber/5.56mm 55 Grain, From Last Week: Unchanged (2 Weeks)
Cheapest, 20 rounds: Ourdoor Unlimited, Tulammo, FMJ, Steel Casing, .23 per round
Cheapest Bulk, 1,000 rounds: SG Ammo, Wolf WPA, FMJ, Steel Casing, .22 per round (From Last Week: -.01 Each After Unchanged (2 Weeks))
.308 NATO 150 Grain, From Last Week: -.02 Each After Unchanged (3 Weeks)
Cheapest, 20 rounds: Natchez Shooters Supplies, Tulammo, FMJ, Steel Casing, .37 per round
Cheapest Bulk, 500 rounds: Target Sports USA, Aguila, Brass Casing, FMJ, .60 per round (From Last Week: +.13 Each (!))
7.62x39mm AK 123 Grain, From Last Week: Unchanged (2 Weeks)
Cheapest, 20 rounds: Target Sports USA, Wolf WPA, Steel Case, FMJ, .25 per round
Cheapest Bulk, 1,000 rounds: SG Ammo, Wolf WPA, Steel Case, FMJ, .23 per round (From Last Week: Unchanged)
.22 LR 40 Grain, From Last Week: +.01 Each After Unchanged (8 Weeks)
Cheapest, 50 rounds (10 Box Limit): Ammomen, Federal, RNL, .07 per round
Cheapest Bulk, 1,000 rounds: Ammomen, Federal, RNL, .07 per round (From Last Week: +.01 Each)
Guns for Private Sale
Rifles
.223/5.56mm (AR Pattern Semiautomatic) Average Price: $555 Last Week Avg: $536(+) ($616 (2Q, 2015), $476 (3Q, 2015))
California (279, 275): Undisclosed Brand: $575 ($650 (1Q, 2015), $400 (2Q, 2016))
Texas (269, 279): Palmetto State Armory: $600 ($700 (1Q, 2015), $350 (2Q, 2015))
Pennsylvania (142, 144): Bushmaster: $500 ($700 (2Q, 2015), $300 (3Q, 2015))
Virginia (188, 184): DPMS: $600 ($750 (1Q, 2015), $475 (27 Weeks))
Florida (360, 367): Anderson Manufacturing AM15: $500 ($650 (2Q, 2015), $380 (1Q, 2015))
.308 NATO (AR-10 Pattern Semiautomatic) Average Price: $1,019 Last Week Avg: $1,100 (-) ($1,359 (2Q, 2015), $820 (3Q, 2015))
California (72, 74): Palmetto State Armory: $1,250 ($1,700 (4Q, 2014), $850 (3Q, 2015))
Texas (94, 91): Bushmaster: $1,050 ($1,500 (4Q, 2014), $700 (17 Weeks))
Pennsylvania (26, 27): DPMS: $800 ($1,500 (1Q, 2015), $700 (3Q, 2015))
Virginia (48, 47): Smith & Wesson M&P10: $1,300 ($2,750 (42 Weeks), $800 (4Q, 2015))
Florida (73, 78): Undisclosed Brand: $695 ($1,950 (28 Weeks), $500 (3Q, 2015))
7.62x39mm (AK Pattern Semiautomatic) Average Price: $626 Last Week Avg: $586(+) ($668 (17 Weeks)), $450 (3Q, 2015))
California (71, 66): Romak: $700 ($800 (23 Weeks)), $320 (4Q, 2014))
Texas (79, 85): CAI RAS47: $630 ($800 (43 Weeks), $350 (3Q, 2014))
Pennsylvania (42, 43): IO: $500 ($750 (1Q, 2015), $375 (1Q, 2015))
Virginia (44, 44): VZ2008: $650 ($700 (23 Weeks), $350 (1Q, 2015))
Florida (98, 112): Wasr10: $650 ($700 (36 Weeks), $300 (4Q, 2014))
30-30 Winchester Lever Action Average Price: $373 Last Week Avg: $463(-) ($495 (5 Weeks), $296 (3Q, 2015))
California (0, 4): None Available: $0 ($1,000 (5 Weeks), $180 (2Q, 2015))
Texas (15, 14): Marlin 336: $400 ($550 (1Q, 2015), $300 (1Q, 2015))
Pennsylvania (16, 14): Marlin 1936: $335 ($450 (1Q, 2015), $250 (4Q, 2014))
Virginia (9, 8): Winchester 94: $350 ($670 (27 Weeks)), $250 (49 Weeks))
Florida (25, 24): Marlin Glenfield: $409 ($500 (1Q, 2015), $250 (2Q, 2015))
Pistols
.45 caliber ACP (M1911 Pattern Semiautomatic Pistol) Average Price: $400 Last Week Avg: $425(-) ($515 (14 Weeks)), $350 (4Q, 2015))
California (216, 221): Rock Island Armory: $495 ($800 (14 Weeks), $300 (3Q, 2015))
Texas (238, 244): Rock Island Armory: $330 ($600 (4Q, 2014), $325 (3Q, 2015))
Pennsylvania (164, 154): Girsan: $400 ($550 (2Q, 2015), $300 (2Q, 2015))
Virginia (145, 147):Auto Ordnance: $425 ($575 (41 Weeks)), $250 (4Q, 2014))
Florida (352, 365): Rock Island Armory: $350 ($500 (40 Weeks), $250 (1Q, 2015))
9mm (Beretta 92FS or other Semiautomatic) Average Price: $249 Last Week Avg: $272(-) ($358 (37 Weeks), $245 (29 Weeks))
California (261, 259): SIG Sauer P938: $300 ($500 (37 Weeks), $200 (4Q, 2015))
Texas (334, 323): Llama Minimax 9: $200 ($355 (1Q, 2015), $200 (3Q, 2015))
Pennsylvania (280, 282): Sccy CPX2: $225 ($350 (4Q 2014), $200 (3Q, 2015))
Virginia (230, 230): Sccy CPX2: $235 ($425 (45 Weeks), $189 (32 Weeks))
Florida (554, 561): Taurus PT111: $285 ($400 (34 Weeks), $190 (14 Weeks))
.40 caliber S&W (Glock or other semiautomatic) Average Price: $308 Last Week Avg: $304(+) ($399 (42 Weeks), $262 (22 Weeks))
California (93, 101): Springfield XD-40: $380 ($560 (44 Weeks)), $250 (4Q, 2014))
Texas (122, 127): Smith & Wesson SD40VE: $250 ($425 (4Q, 2014), ($210 (7 Weeks))
Pennsylvania (97, 96): Taurus PT 24-7: $225 ($450 (31 Weeks), $200 (11 Weeks))
Virginia (65, 70): Ruger SR40: $350 ($450 (2Q, 2015), $275 (1Q, 2015))
Florida (157, 162): Kahr Arms PM40: $335 ($400 (1Q, 2015), $199 (50 Weeks))
Used Gun of the Week: (Pennsylvania)
Polish RPD belt fed rifle Chambered in 7.62x39mm