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| China-Japan-Koreas |
| A War Between the U.S. and China Would Be World War III |
| 2017-02-03 |
| [The National Interest] The window for war between the United States and China will, in all likelihood, last for a long time. Preventing war will require tremendous skill and acumen from diplomats and policymakers. Similarly, the demands of positioning either side for victory will continue to tax diplomatic, military, and technological resources for the foreseeable future. At the moment, however, we shouldn’t forget that China and the United States constitute the heart of one of the most productive economic regions the world has ever seen. How does the unthinkable happen? As historians continue to contemplate the various historic anniversaries around World War I through next year, the question of unexpected wars looms large. What series of events could lead to war in East Asia, and how would that war play out? The United States and China are inextricably locked in the Pacific Rim’s system of international trade. Some argue that this makes war impossible, but then while some believed World War I inevitable, but others similarly thought it impossible. |
| Posted by:Besoeker |
| #9 The frightening scope of this decline is best expressed in numbers. China today boasts roughly five workers for every retiree. By 2040, this highly desirable ratio will have collapsed to about 1.6 to 1. Maybe they should take some refugees from the Middle East. |
| Posted by: Abu Uluque 2017-02-03 19:07 |
| #8 China's biggest problem? Too many men |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2017-02-03 15:39 |
| #7 I think a nuclear armed civil war in China isn't as far fetched as many will think. With the side with the fewest weapons in a use_it_or_lose_it bind. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2017-02-03 15:15 |
| #6 They'd better get going then -- the aging of the population is already having an impact. According to an Atlantic article on the subject, in 2015 China announced it would be reducing its military manpower by 300,000. And The frightening scope of this decline is best expressed in numbers. China today boasts roughly five workers for every retiree. By 2040, this highly desirable ratio will have collapsed to about 1.6 to 1. From the start of this century to its midway point, the median age in China will go from under 30 to about 46, making China one of the older societies in the world. At the same time, the number of Chinese older than 65 is expected to rise from roughly 100 million in 2005 to more than 329 million in 2050—more than the combined populations of Germany, Japan, France, and Britain. A final point from the article of interest to us: the writer quotes an academic saying, "he foresees a coming “geriatric peace,” as nations around the world find themselves too burdened to challenge America’s military preeminence." |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2017-02-03 14:06 |
| #5 War between the US and China would be the first entirely cyber war with both sides claiming "what war?" |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2017-02-03 10:57 |
| #4 Well, it appears Mr. Farley can count...in Roman numerals. |
| Posted by: Vast Right Wing Conspiracy 2017-02-03 09:06 |
| #3 If the current Jacksonian revolution fails, definitely. If, however, it succeeds and the current Mandarinate is replaced by leadership of pragmatic people with real world achievements - well Chinese leadership are pretty pragmatic too. |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2017-02-03 04:28 |
| #2 I think Trump recognises the geopolitical risk China represents, and will destabilize their economy before any conflict. We know that when communist regimes fall they do so quickly. I don't see why China will be different. The likeliest alternate scenario is a protracted civil war with both sides holding nuclear weapons. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2017-02-03 02:55 |
| #1 No. It will be a controlled combat situation. |
| Posted by: newc 2017-02-03 01:38 |