Gulbuddin Hekmatyar... who used to be known in intelligence circles as
The Most Evil Man in the Worldbut who now seems merely run-of-the-mill evil...
a template for future peace agreements or a one-off affair that comes down to the savvy of Mr Hekmatyar and Kabul
...the capital of Afghanistan. Home to continuous fighting from 1992 to 1996 between the forces of would-be strongman and Pak ISI/Jamaat-e-Islami sock puppet Gulbuddin Hekmayar and the Northern Alliance, a period which won Hek the title
Most Evil Man in the Worldand didn't do much for the reputations of the Northern Alliance guys either....
’s desperation? With the lifting of UN sanctions and the likely release of some of Mr Hekmatyar’s allies, the Hezb-e-Islami leader is expected to come out of hiding and enter Kabul as a rehabilitated public figure of Afghanistan. While some power centres in Kabul may regard Mr Hekmatyar as a potential ally in the complicated and ever-worsening political balancing acts in the Afghan capital, the greater value may be in the Hezb leader showing the way for those among the Afghan Taliban who may be interested in knowing the possibilities of life in Afghanistan if they strike a deal with the government. But it will not be easy. The deal has been facilitated by the reality that both sides had something to offer the other: Mr Hekmatyar is a relatively marginal opposition, bad boy figure who appears to have been looking for political relevance in Kabul again; the Hezb-e-Islami is small enough for Kabul to not need to make massive concessions.
With the Taliban, the calculations are necessarily different. The group may not be in a position to overrun government strongholds, but neither is the government in a position to wrest back Taliban strongholds. To that years-old position, the annual spring uncertainty is about to be introduced: will the end of winter and the start of the fighting season cause a tipping point this year? For at least two external reasons, the Taliban may feel more emboldened than usual this spring. First, the new US administration appears focused on the bad boy Islamic State
...formerly ISIS or ISIL, depending on your preference. Before that al-Qaeda in Iraq, as shaped by Abu Musab Zarqawi. They're very devout, committing every atrocity they can find in the Koran and inventing a few more. They fling
Allaharound with every other sentence, but to hear the pols talk they're not
reallyMoslems....
group and does not, at least for now, appear interested in significantly expanding the US military mission in Afghanistan. Second, Russia has upped its interest in Afghanistan in a manner that may favour the Taliban in the short term -- the fear of IS spreading inside Afghanistan and to regional countries may release some of the military and diplomatic pressure on the Taliban to work towards a peace settlement. But for Pakistain, the policy must remain focused on a peace settlement. It is the only guarantee of long-term regional peace and stability. Short-term interests should not cloud the greater good. Quiet but determined diplomacy towards a peace settlement should continue to be the approach.