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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| The unforgiving complexity of the Syrian war |
| 2017-03-12 |
| On Monday, U.S. commanders directed forces already based in Manbij to drive a series of convoys through the city and surrounding area with American flags flying. It was designed to send a clear message: Everyone needs to continue the momentum against the Islamic State group, not each other. But while the U.S.-led coalition may have temporarily prevented Russians, Syrians, Turks and Kurds from attacking and killing each other, the situation there exposes far graver dangers for future conflict in Syria. It was only a matter of time before the Syrian regime's civil war in the western part of the country, backed on the ground and in the air by Moscow, abutted the U.S.-led coalition's fight against the Islamic State group in the east. Those forces' convergence in Manbij, a key transit hub toward the terrorists' capital in Raqqa, was troublesome enough on its own, but it comes at a time when all fighting forces in Syria see an opportunity to establish strongholds today that might grant them greater regional control in the future. The showdown in Manbij this week exposes that President Donald Trump needs to make a decision soon about which forces the U.S. will support in the final campaign to defeat the terrorist network and how the White House plans to follow through without infuriating other key allies. It's a nearly impossible choice, and the administration needs to decide fast. Angering the Turks by continuing to rely on Kurdish militia risks Ankara's withdrawing permission for U.S. bombers and fighters to use its airfields, most notably Incirlik air base. American defense officials say privately that losing access to those bases would significantly hamper the U.S. air war. The coalition may have no other choice than to rely on the Kurds, however, as the Arab forces on the ground, known as the Syrian Democratic Forces, do not have the necessary equipment, training or sheer numbers to retake Raqqa, which Pentagon experts expect will be a hard and bloody battle. And throughout these conflicts is the omnipresent concern that Russian forces and their Syrian proxies could engage the U.S. military presence and the ground forces it's compiled – a potential escalation narrowly avoided in recent months following Russian warplanes striking U.S.-trained rebels. The situation comes as the White House considers a plan the Pentagon submitted in February for changes to the campaign against the Islamic State group. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has already instituted some slight changes, including the deployment of 300 Marines to Syria to provide artillery support for a ground force once the siege on Raqqa begins. Straining U.S. efforts, and concerning many Middle East experts, is how few positions the Trump White House has been able to fill at the State Department and Pentagon, where the respective secretaries and their closest advisers remain the only political appointees currently working these problems. "We're close to a collision course because we don't have our act together," Julianne Smith, a former defense official and national security adviser to Vice President Joe Biden, now with the Center for a New American Security says, adding that the various forces on the ground in Syria each have a different plan for what they would like to see happen next. "They're all going to seize on this vacuum right now, where the U.S. doesn't have much of a plan." |
| Posted by:Pappy |