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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| Syria 14 Questions |
| 2017-04-10 |
| h/t Jerry Pournelle ...Here are 14 questions that proponents of war in Syria must answer before anyone considers whether military intervention to remove Assad is the best course of action for the American people. 1) What national security interest, rather than pure humanitarian interest, is served by the use of American military power to depose Assad’s regime? 2) How will deposing Assad make America safer? 3) What does final political victory in Syria look like (be specific), and how long will it take for that political victory to be achieved? Do you consider victory to be destabilization of Assad, the removal of Assad, the creation of a stable government that can protect itself and its people without additional assistance from the United States, etc.? 4) What military resources (e.g., ground troops), diplomatic resources, and financial resources will be required to achieve this political victory? 5) How long will it take to achieve political victory? 6) What costs, in terms of lives (both military and civilian), dollars, and forgone options elsewhere as a result of resource deployment in Syria, will be required to achieve political victory? 7) What other countries will join the United States in deposing Assad, in terms of military, monetary, or diplomatic resources? 8) Should explicit congressional authorization for the use of military force in Syria be required, or should the president take action without congressional approval? 9) What is the risk of wider conflict with Russia, given that nation’s presence and stake in Syria, if the United States chooses to invade and depose Assad, a key Russian ally in the Middle East? 10) If U.S. intervention in Syria does spark a larger war with Russia, what does political victory in that scenario look like, and what costs will it entail? 11) Given that Assad has already demonstrated a willingness to use chemical weapons, how should the United States respond if the Assad regime deploys chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons against the United States? 12) Assuming the Assad regime is successfully removed from power, what type of government structure will be used to replace Assad, who will select that government, and how will that government establish and maintain stability going forward? 13) Given that a change in political power in the United States radically altered the American position in Iraq in 2009, how will you mitigate or address the risk of a similar political dynamic upending your preferred strategy in Syria, either in 2018, 2020, or beyond? 14) What lessons did you learn from America’s failure to achieve and maintain political victory following the removal of governments in Iraq and Libya, and how will you apply those lessons to a potential war in Syria? I might add that the implicit view espoused in most western publications on the subject is bullshit. There are no Syrian people rebelling against bloody handed tyrant* and his handful of henchmen (if only because there is no such thing as Syrian People). It's Sunni against Shia$, and if the Sunni win - they'll massacre all the Alawites & Christians, and start on the Shia in Lebanon (I wouldn't mind, but I'm not you). *You wanted to see a bloody-handed tyrant, you should review Assad senior - of course, on his watch rebellions didn't last long. $ Yea, I know, Alawites are not really Shia, but for the Sunnis they're the same thing. |
| Posted by:g(r)omgoru |
| #5 You have a point, grom - they are self-fumigating. |
| Posted by: Glenmore 2017-04-10 16:19 |
| #4 Not with the current infestation of vermin. |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2017-04-10 15:59 |
| #3 I don't think they want it. |
| Posted by: Glenmore 2017-04-10 15:56 |
| #2 Can we just give Syria to Israel? |
| Posted by: Iblis 2017-04-10 15:54 |
| #1 Russia stake in Syria? What is Russia's stake in Russia? What is the U.S. stake in Syria? What is Iran's stake? Who are our enemies in Syria? Who are our friends and who are we allied with? Tucker Carlson interviewed Lindsay Graham (the ready warrior) the other night and Graham was inarticulate and muddled on the above questions--he sounded like he was drunk. McCain was interviewed by someone (can't remember who now) and he seemed ready to go to war with Syria but presented few good reasons. |
| Posted by: JohnQC 2017-04-10 15:10 |