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China-Japan-Koreas

Nasty, brutish, and short ‐ what the next Korean War will look like

2017-04-11

[QuartzMedia] ...
An insurgency

Another lesson from the Middle East that might apply to North Korea is the need for counter-insurgency capabilities. Kelly notes that the North has hundreds of thousands of special troops "who really believe in the ideology" and Kim Jong-un as a "divine person." Such soldiers could fall back into the mountains, regroup, and stage attacks for years on a South Korean force that has no or little training in dealing with insurgencies.

Fear of this possibility stems largely from the US experience in Iraq with Saddam Hussein loyalists, or "dead-enders," who continued staging deadly attacks well after their leader’s downfall. But as with everything in North Korea, it’s hard to know at this point how much of a threat this might be.

Posted by:Blossom Unains5562

#22 The deal should be to draw a line where the Sorks take responsibility for 90% of the Nork population, China takes responsibility for the northern Pacific Korean ports, and America withdraws all troops from the peninsula.

After a nasty short war, everybody wins, except fat boy Kim.

Posted by: rammer 2017-04-11 21:14

#21 If Pudgy is taken out, 150,000 Chinese soldiers are on the border ready to roll in to Pyongyang.

They can have it. They can deal with the refugees and economic chaos in order to keep their client/buffer.

Posted by: rjschwarz 2017-04-11 18:05

#20 Check out this weird, short-lived post from chinamil.com.cn today. I also posted this link with commentary elsewhere on the Burg.

Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418 2017-04-11 17:07

#19 Scrounging for food?

Posted by: JohnQC 2017-04-11 14:31

#18 If Pudgy is taken out, 150,000 Chinese soldiers are on the border ready to roll in to Pyongyang.

Posted by: Daffy Grusotle2318 2017-04-11 14:24

#17 I have read that many of the NK artillery caves were built from the inside-out. They are already sealed. Plans are to excavate the last foot or so of dirt blocking the openings & then open fire. How caves such as these can be detected ahead of time is beyond me.
Most predictions of wars to come, when compared to how they actually turn out, prove inaccurate. In 2003, before the invasion of Iraq started, I read some very optimistic forecasts on this very site. Nothing that predicted what actually happened.
My prediction for the next Korean war is simply: a whole lot of casualties and destruction.

Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418 2017-04-11 14:10

#16 #1 Cut off the head (Pyongyang) and destroy the LOC's (road, rail, air, sea glines of communication) headed south. The NK Army has everything prepositioned forward within 20-50 miles of the FEBA. They already mitigated this LOC interdiction risk.

LOC's, airfields, bridges should be severed in any event. No sense making life easy for the follow-on's. Prepositioned stocks are extremely vulnerable, monitored as High Value Targets (HVT), etc. 'Besoeker on war.'

Posted by: Besoeker 2017-04-11 13:26

#15 1. Blow an EMP over North Korea's missile sites.
2. Wait.

Posted by: rjschwarz 2017-04-11 13:16

#14 Maybe the best option is a Chinese sponsored coup that emplaces a saner government in place. NK can begin to come out of the dark, the PRC gets its buffer state and a war is avoided. As Winston said jaw, jaw, jaw is better than war

Posted by: Cheaderhead 2017-04-11 11:11

#13 I don't think South Korea is afraid of losing a war with North Korea as much as they are of winning one, and being responsible for that mess.

Posted by: Glenmore 2017-04-11 10:28

#12 #1 Cut off the head (Pyongyang) and destroy the LOC's (road, rail, air, sea glines of communication) headed south. The NK Army has everything prepositioned forward within 20-50 miles of the FEBA. They already mitigated this LOC interdiction risk. However, our LOCs and the South's are vulnerable to the NK Spetsnatz capability. This would not be a short war...let the South Koreans, Japanese and Chinese worry this one. If the Chicoms think the Japanese will go nuclear, then they will mitigate the Norks.

Posted by: Tennessee 2017-04-11 10:11

#11 The last time I saw South Korean soldiers, they had earrings and shaggy hair, and looked pudgy.

I think the old 70s impressions are out of date.

Posted by: Harcourt Angoluting9366 2017-04-11 09:26

#10 B2s, GPS and Small Diameter Bombs ==> sealed artillery caves that can no longer threaten Seoul.

Posted by: Crusoling Turkeyneck1852 2017-04-11 08:39

#9 Nork soldiers could fall back into the mountains and fight for years except for supply issues. North Korea, especially in the winter, has to be one of the most inhospitable places on earth to survive no less fight. Agreements would have to be in place for China to stay out it.

Posted by: JohnQC 2017-04-11 08:29

#8 Military - hell just send hundreds of Kias and Hyundais loaded with food and clothing for them to loot. Follow the trail back to their lairs. Do you want to starve or live in the land of plenty?

Posted by: Procopius2k 2017-04-11 08:16

#7 Ditto #6. The South Korean army should not be underestimated.

Posted by: Besoeker 2017-04-11 08:14

#6 The South Korean Military will not hesitate to blow the bridges over the Yalu, and air drop toe poppers all over that area. They have no love of the Chinese.

Posted by: Jeasing Creque5352 2017-04-11 07:29

#5 p.s. Remember Nazis planned prolonged resistance?

Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2017-04-11 05:36

#4 Such soldiers could fall back into the mountains, regroup, and stage attacks for years on a South Korean force that has no or little training in dealing with insurgencies.

...They could, absolutely. But the ROKs ain't us. They'll go into the hills and kill anything that moves. I watched a ROK gun battery near Kunsan AB blow one of their own fishing boats out of the water without warning because it strayed into the wrong area - putting down a Nork rebellion the only way that really works will make perfect sense to them.

Mike

Posted by: Mike Kozlowski 2017-04-11 04:54

#3 (a) Koreans are not tribal like Arabs or Afghans.
(b) If Nork military conventional & not is taken out, the rest is Sork problem.

Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2017-04-11 04:13

#2 Let China do the nation building this time around.

Posted by: CrazyFool 2017-04-11 00:58

#1 Cut off the head (Pyongyang) and destroy the LOC's (road, rail, air, sea lines of communication) headed south. The South Koreans will hunt down the stragglers. Keep an eye on the Chinese. We know all too well what they did last time. They do not fancy a unified, democratic Korea at their border. Again, go for he head.

Posted by: Besoeker 2017-04-11 00:40

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