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| Caribbean-Latin America |
| Venezuela: As protests ramp up, here are 5 things to watch |
| 2017-05-02 |
| [WashingtonPost] For the second consecutive spring, Venezuela is a powder keg. For weeks, demonstrators have been protesting the unpopular government of President Nicolás Maduro, and the country’s food shortages and foundering economy. The catalyst for this year’s demonstrations came in the form of the government shutdown of the opposition-controlled National Assembly. Opposition leaders are pushing for early presidential elections, presenting the option as a means of avoiding further strife — and more deaths. But bans and threats against opposition politicians have sparked more protests, fueled by pent-up outrage at the prolonged economic recession. Opposition-led protests are gaining traction within Venezuela’s working classes, including urban centers that were once strongholds of Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chávez. With few allies in the region and Venezuela’s international reserves dropping to new lows, Maduro is coming under increased pressure to negotiate an electoral solution. Here are five areas to watch: 1) Maduro can try to hunker down, but it won’t be easy Last week, Venezuela gave its formal notification to withdraw from the Organization of American States. The exit costs for this authoritarian regime are already very high, and leaving the OAS may be a sign that the Venezuelan government is preparing for a fierce battle. This hunker-down scenario faces the formidable challenge of economic collapse. 2) Maduro made huge blunders and has not bounced back The double blunder of shutting down the Assembly and then backtracking on made Maduro look weak — and opponents capitalized on a humiliating video of protesters pelting the president with eggs at a pro-government rally. 3) Looting is on the rise — but what message does this send? Looting generally does not signal pro-opposition support, but if it takes place in parallel with political protests, such co-occurrence can give a powerful message that the authorities are to blame for the meltdown. The looting, along with disruptive protests and a growing sense of instability and lawlessness, creates further problems for the government’s political legitimacy. 4) The military remains tolerant, if not actively supportive, of Maduro Venezuela’s military is also a conglomerate of business interests. The high command manages the critically important food import sector, has been accused of profiting from food shortages and has interests in the strategic state oil and mining industries. If popular discontent continues to swell, creating the need for the army to step in, there could be a major change in the political leanings of the military high command. The army may be corrupt, ideological and pro-government, but it may not be willing to radically change its professional role to repress Venezuelans on behalf of a discredited government. 5) There is growing international pressure for an electoral solution Venezuela’s formal notice to exit the Organization of American States will launch a two-year withdrawal process. But international support for dialogue is growing stronger, with Latin American countries calling for the Vatican to resume suspended international mediation. The end goal of an internationally supported dialogue would be a commitment to the democratic process — and published dates for regional and presidential elections, along with the participation of international monitors to ensure free and fair elections. With more protests and countermarches from the government announced for the weeks ahead, the clashes seem likely to continue. What we have learned is that whether Venezuela reaches a tipping point depends not only on popular mobilization but also on whether the government cracks under the combined international political and economic pressure. |
| Posted by:Pappy |
| #1 "with Latin American countries calling for the Vatican to resume suspended international mediation" Oh, this'll be sweet. Get our Marxist Pope rolled up in this... |
| Posted by: ed in texas 2017-05-02 19:03 |