#1 Reading the article, we discover:
We don't know when or if this long-term unrest will lead to an eruption, but Campi Flegrei is following a trend we've seen when testing our model on other volcanoes, including Rabaul in Papua New Guinea, El Hierro in the Canary Islands, and Soufriere Hills on Montserrat in the Caribbean.”
The problem is that the climate people have brought all modelling into disrepute. And five hundred years is a pretty big window. Call me back when they've tightened it down to a month or or a year. |