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[The Diplomat] By Austin BodettiThe insurgency remains difficult to resolve in part because of the insurgents' secrecy. Though none doubt that the insurgents, who claim to champion the national interests of Thailand’s Malay, Muslim minority, desire independence for the region, few can confirm or even identify who represents them. The Thai government is now negotiating with apparent representatives of the insurgency, yet experts have noted a divide between younger military commanders in southern Thailand and older political leaders, many of whom reside far from the battlefield in Malaysia. Negotiations exclude the National Revolutionary Front (BRN), which spearheads the insurgency in the south, undermining the credibility of the peace process and the Thai government’s commitment to it.
The Thai military insisted that negotiations would continue after the bombing, which the BRN likely perpetrated. “The attack is not getting in the way of the peace talks, which we are pushing forward,” said Major General Sith Trakulwong. “Despite the violence, the peace talks will go on.”
In the face of such difficulties, Bangkok appears to lack interest in resolving the insurgency through either a military victory or political settlement. Instead, the military dictatorship has redoubled its efforts to muzzle the press and quash dissent, inserting itself into everyday life. Officials have prioritized foreign policy over national security, looking to improve their military relationship with the United States and planning for Prime Minister Prayut’s visit to the White House. Meanwhile a May 22 bombing in Bangkok indicated that the south will prove far from the Thai government’s only dilemma in terms of security. With other concerns dominating Bangkok’s attention it was only on June 5, almost a month after the supermarket bombing in Pattani, that the government saw fit to increase patrols along the Malaysian-Thai border.
Thailand’s military prefers governance to war, explaining its challenges with the insurgency. “The core pursuits of the Thai military are playing politics and engaging in business activities (including illegal activities, such as smuggling); when the occasion arises, commanders are not averse to killing a few dozen unarmed civilians,” Duncan McCargo, a professor at Leeds University, argued in his book about the insurgency. “The Thai military had no strong grasp of counterinsurgency techniques or strategy, subjects which were not really taught at the Chulachomklao Military Academy.” Rather than confronting the difficulties that it faces in the south, the military dictatorship has opted to avoid or ignore them, reinvigorating the insurgency.