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China-Japan-Koreas
Experts' Letter to Trump on North Korea
2017-07-06
[RealClearDefense] President Trump should carefully review, and summarily reject, the recommendations laid out in a letter from six self-described "experts with decades of military, political, and technical involvement with North Korean issues."

The experts (some of whom I have worked with or under, directly or indirectly, in government or academia, and greatly respect), are well-regarded in their fields and as well-meaning and patriotic as any of the rest of us.

But their call for the immediate and unconditional opening of talks with North Korea defies the history in which they have been involved. They state something they know to be refuted by experience, their own and others’:

"Talking is not a reward or a concession to Pyongyang and should not be construed as signaling acceptance of a nuclear-armed North Korea."

Yet, that is precisely how it will be seen by Pyongyang and its supporters (Beijing and Moscow), collaborators (Iran, Syria, Pakistan) and other rogue states and parties who defy and undermine the international order (Cuba, Hamas, Hezbollah et al.)

The writers believe it is incumbent on the United States "to show good faith ... and make clear that Washington does not have hostile intentions toward North Korea and wants to explore peaceful paths forward." This after sixty-four years of North Korean aggression, insults, and provocations, American restraint in declining to resort to it its overwhelming military power, and endless appeals for a peaceful resolution accompanied by generous economic rewards to North Korea.

"In return," they write, " Pyongyang could announce a freeze on tests of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons. We expect China would support such talks and help to bring them about." (my emphasis).

As the authors know from their own painful dealings with the regime’s negotiators, they have previously announced good things only to cheat and renege at the earliest opportunity. And China is only too happy to go along with the charade.

Nevertheless, the experts argue: "[S]anctions alone will not solve the problem. Pyongyang has shown it can make progress on missile and nuclear technology despite its isolation."

But that is only because serious, biting sanctions have never truly been tried. Beijing, and Moscow to a lesser extent, have consistently opposed, undermined, circumvented, or simply ignored previous sanctions regimes, doing just enough to show the West their own "good faith" but never enough to actually incentivize North Korea to halt its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

Indeed, China now openly says it fears North Korean regime collapse more than a nuclear North Korea and that collapse would occur if it imposed substantial economic pain on the regime with tightened sanctions.

In other words, the Kim family dynasty would choose regime suicide rather than give up deliverable nuclear weapons--and China cares more about the regime’s survival than does the regime itself!

Yet, the experts tell us : "Kim Jong Un is not irrational and highly values preserving his regime."

"Instead the primary danger is a miscalculation or mistake that could lead to war". True, and such miscalculation can arise precisely from a perception that the West lacks the will to confront the danger: "there are no good military options." There rarely are, but dangers only increase when allowed to by indecision and self-delusion. As Henry Kissinger said of the Korean War: "We did not expect the invasion, China did not expect our response".

President Trump has made it clear he is not deceived by China’s protestations of innocence and impotence regarding the growing North Korean threat to South Korea, Japan, and the United States.

At some point, Washington policy-makers will come to the full realization that Beijing has all along colluded with and "enabled" North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. They have provided a major diplomatic distraction and resource diversion for the West and a great strategic advantage for China, allowing it to pose as a responsible stakeholder and good-faith negotiating partner.

Successive presidents, including this one up to a point, have made preemptive concessions to Beijing on trade, human rights, Taiwan, the South China Sea because "we need China on North Korea."

President Trump is well-positioned to put an end to that destructive dynamic and has given signs he intends to do just that.
Posted by:Vast Right Wing Conspiracy

#13  TRULLY Know your enemy #11. If you know them better than they know themselves, you might can defeat them.

North Korea is WWII Japan (emperor worship) only with Nukes.

Posted by: Thuse Phusons1534   2017-07-06 22:25  

#12  Tell North Korea that if they don't behave we'll send Jimmy Carter and Dennis Rodman!
Posted by: rjschwarz   2017-07-06 17:49  

#11  "Do not under estimate this young Dictator. ...

Holy crap! A real North Korean posts here!
Posted by: Cholumble Gleater3222   2017-07-06 16:54  

#10  They inadvertently left off Dennis Rodman
Posted by: Frank G   2017-07-06 13:53  

#9  "The letter was co–written by former US Defence Secretary William J Perry, US Senator Richard Lugar, Nuclear scientist Siegfried Hecker, Governor Bill Richardson, former Secretary of State George Shultz and diplomat Robert Gallucci."

Looks like the same gang of idiots who have been wringing their hands for the last several decades, appeasing the NORKS and their Chicom sponsors and allowing the situation to degenerate as far as it has.
Posted by: Abu Uluque   2017-07-06 12:36  

#8  Be wary of the "experts." Your instincts have been pretty good so far.
Posted by: JohnQC   2017-07-06 11:51  

#7  Japan can exert enormous influence by merely mentioning the possibility of them going nuclear in self defense.
Posted by: CrazyFool   2017-07-06 11:00  

#6  "The letter was co–written by former US Defence Secretary William J Perry, US Senator Richard Lugar, Nuclear scientist Siegfried Hecker, Governor Bill Richardson, former Secretary of State George Shultz and diplomat Robert Gallucci."

http://eheadlines.com/experts-demand-trump-to-solve-the-problem-of-north-korea-sanctions-are-not-enough/
Posted by: OregonGuy   2017-07-06 10:55  

#5  Just publicity notify both the Chinese and the Russians, the other players in the region will get their nukes and delivery systems. When everyone screams, just put a deadline that the other parties denuclearize the Norks or game over. If the Norks can play by their own rules, so can we.
Posted by: Procopius2k   2017-07-06 09:45  

#4  Do not under estimate this young Dictator.

It is said that instead of all agricultural produce being required by the state, he is allowing up to 40-60 percent to be kept by the farmer.

Kim has set up economic enrichment zones in every region that allows successful enterprises to actually make money for themselves, unlike his father and grandfather.

What he has done militarily is to have removed those loyal to his father and replaced them with younger more innovative military people. Thus the progress with ICBM development.

He is worshiped by his people as a custom and they are conditioned to cheer, applaud and show tears of joy when he enters the presence. His ruthlessness has created extreme fear of him.

Even though Kim is young, he has mastered acting much older than his age when in the company of his top loyalists.

He intends to leverage nuclear military capability as a tool that is to inflict fear in the world and he intends to do so very effectively.

This situation will be a major challenge for the rest of the world to try to deal with.
Posted by: Victor Emmanuel Hitler4589   2017-07-06 03:45  

#3  And it will tell the Chicom elite that if the US can track the whereabouts of Kim, they can track them as well.
Posted by: phil_b   2017-07-06 02:45  

#2  It also has the benefit of telling the Muzzie goat humpers in Iran - you're next.
Posted by: Raj   2017-07-06 02:06  

#1  I'm thinking assasinating Kim is the best way forward. With no obvious heir, any military response would soon peter out, as the factions fight each other.
Posted by: phil_b   2017-07-06 01:43  

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