By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
A few points to raise on the Las Vegas incident:
The Physics
The range between Steven Paddock and his 22,000 targets was between 400 and 600 meters. I have heard from several people who believe that range is unusually long for the 5.56mm. However, Terrance Popp said that 400 to 600 meters was in fact a nominal range for the 5.56mm.
Russian armorers set the range for their 5.45mm AK-74 rifle at 400 meters. Ukrainian GRU Colonel Igor Bezler in 2016 remarked in the aftermath of a tactical engagement between the rebels of the Donbas and the Ukrainian Army how rebel riflemen were able to gain the upper hand in firing their rifles on Ukrainians at 300 to 400 meters.
How does this apply? It doesn't.
Most of those riflemen were in their late teens and older. Paddock was 64 years old, aiming and shooting in a visually impaired environment with darkness and lights from a country music show distorting his sight picture. Even firing from an elevated position with his eyesight corrected, I doubt he could see his targets. The Eotech sight he had was almost useless in such an environment because he was using a slide fire mechanism.
Which explains in part why only 159 people were actually struck by gunfire. Even firing pseudo-automatic fire, with a large target (a mass of people) before him, he still had to find something to hit. Watching the videos of the start, it was several minutes before the crowd realized they were being gridded by rifle fire and decided to leave or find cover.
All of which shows that Paddock was an amateur, firing rifles, perhaps not the first time, but the first time in anger. Even if he was completely benumbed by the carnage he was causing, it was because he probably could not even see how he was doing. I routinely use the 200 meter band at the gun range, in daylight with corrected eyesight in a relaxed atmosphere. 200 yards for me is a stretch to see a target, so at 300 yards and beyond I would not be able to see anything. Forty years ago, it would not have been as much of an issue.
If Paddock had better optics, more practice and chucked the slide fire mechanism, he could have done much more damage, especially had he fired his weapons in semiautomatic mode, in my opinion. Pseudo-automatic rifle fire is more tacticool than being efficient with your firearm, doncha know.
And then there is the issue of ammunition. At the moment we do not know if he bought ammunition with the same bullet weight. Firing in those ranges, bullet weight would have had a significant impact on where his rounds hit.
Conspiracies
My favorite theory in the Cool Story, Bro mode, was that Paddock was a gun runner who met with ISIS operatives, who then killed him and committed the massacre. The flaw in that theory is that a gun runner would not try to sell traceable guns that he had bought from a gun shop. His market would be almost entirely in stolen firearms, either from individuals, criminal gangs or from government armories.
Another flaw is where Paddock's showroom was: in a busy Las Vegas hotel crawling with security. Were I a gun runner, I would keep a warehouse in the middle of nowhere with security cameras, hungry dogs and booby traps. You meet somewhere other than where your wares are, and you send intermediaries. Paddock had the money for all that.
Also, if Paddock was going to sell illegal firearms, he should have had at least some security, armed steroid boys and former operators in the room with him.
Another theory is that Paddock was an FBI agent in the same gun running scenario trying to catch Bad Guys with guns bought in a gun shop. Jeez, at least set up a theft before you go claiming that.
Finally, Nancy Sinatra wants you dead if you are an NRA member. And we wonder where men like Paddock draw their inspiration for committing mayhem.
Loads.
Rantburg's summary for arms and ammunition:
Pistol ammunition prices were steady. Rifle ammunition prices were mostly higher.
Prices for used pistols were mixed. Prices for used rifles were mostly higher.
I said last week that ammunition prices should continue following a lower price trend until the holidays, when a spike in price would be expected.
Last week's massacre in Las Vegas may have caused a spike in prices for 5.56mm cartridges, with prices increasing $0.02 each. It may not mean much, but that is a 10 percent spike. Whether prices will continue to increase remains to be seen. A lot of ARs have been dumped on the used market since early last summer, so concomitantly demand for ammunition would necessary decrease. This is why the price increase is so significant.
It s unclear at the moment, since it has been only six days since the Las Vegas incident, how suppliers play into the increase.
New Lows:
Texas: .40 caliber S&W (Glock or other semiautomatic): Bersa BP: $180
Pistol Ammunition
.45 Caliber, 230 Grain, From Last Week: Unchanged (2 Weeks)
Cheapest, 50 rounds: Highland Lakes Ammo, Own Brand, RNL, Brass Casing, Reloads .21 per round
Cheapest Bulk, 500 rounds: SG Ammo, Wolf WPA, FMJ, Steel Casing, .22 per round (From Last Week: +.02 Each After Unchanged (2 Weeks))
.40 Caliber Smith & Wesson, 180 Grain, From Last Week: Unchanged (3 Weeks)
Cheapest, 50 rounds: Ammomen, Magtech, FMJFN, Brass Casing, .20 per round
Cheapest Bulk, 500 rounds: Ammo Valley, Own Brand, RNFP, Brass Casing, Reloads, .18 per round (From Last Week: Unchanged (3 Weeks))
9mm Parabellum, 115 Grain, From Last Week: Unchanged (6 Weeks)
Cheapest, 50 rounds: Extreme Reloading, Own Brand, RN, Brass Casing .14 per round
Cheapest Bulk, 500 rounds: Fedarm, Own brand, RN, Brass Casing, Reloads .14 per round (From Last Week: Unchanged (6 Weeks))
.357 Magnum, 158 Grain, From Last Week: Unchanged (2 Weeks)
Cheapest, 50 rounds: Highland Lakes Ammo, Own Brand, FNMJ, Brass Casing, Reloads .23 per round
Cheapest Bulk: 1,000 rounds: Outdoor Unlimited, Tulammo, FMJ, Steel Casing, .23 per round (From Last Week: Unchanged (3Q, 2017))
.38 Special, 158 Grain, From Last Week: Unchanged (2 Weeks)
Cheapest, 50 rounds: Highland Lakes Ammo, Own Brand, FNCJ, Brass Casing, Reloads .23 per round
Cheapest Bulk: 500 rounds: Ammo Valley, Own brand, FP, Brass Casing, Reloads, .24 per round (From Last Week: Unchanged (8 Weeks))
Rifle Ammunition
.223 Caliber/5.56mm 55 Grain, From Last Week: +.02 each After Unchanged (3 Weeks)
Cheapest, 20 rounds: Ammo Liquidator, Tulammo, FMJ, Steel Casing, .21 per round
Cheapest Bulk, 1,000 rounds: Ammo Liquidator, Tulammo, FMJ, Steel Casing, .21 per round (From Last Week: +.02 Each After Unchanged (3 Weeks))
.308 NATO 150 Grain, From Last Week: Unchanged (3Q, 2017)
Cheapest, 20 rounds: Outdoor Unlimited, Tulammo, FMJ, Steel Casing, .32 per round
Cheapest Bulk, 500 rounds: Outdoor Unlimited, Tulammo, FMJ, Steel Casing, .32 per round (From Last Week: Unchanged (3Q, 2017))
7.62x39mm AK 123 Grain, From Last Week: Unchanged (3Q, 2017)
Cheapest, 20 rounds: Ammo King, Wolf WPA, FMJ, Steel Casing, .19 per round
Cheapest Bulk, 1,000 rounds: True Caliber, Wolf WPA, Steel Casing, FMJ, .19 per round (From Last Week: Unchanged (3Q, 2017))
.30-06 Springfield 145 Grain. From Last Week: +.06 Each After Unchanged (2Q, 2017)
Cheapest, 20 rounds: Target Sports USA, Wolf WPA, Steel Casing, FMJ, .60 per round
Cheapest Bulk, 500 rounds: United Nations Ammo, Wolf WPA, Steel Casing, FMJ, .54 per round (From Last week: Unchanged (1Q, 2017))
.300 Winchester Magnum 150 Grain, From Last Week: +.03 Each
Cheapest, 20 rounds: Ammo Liquidator, Winchester, Brass Casing, SP, .84 per round
Cheapest Bulk, 1,000 rounds: Ammo Liquidator, Winchester, Brass Casing, SP, .82 per round (From Last Week: Unchanged (5 Weeks))
.338 Lapua Magnum 250 Grain, From Last Week: +.01 Each
Cheapest, 20 rounds: Bud's Gun Shop, Federal Eagle, Brass Casing, JSP, 2.37 per round
Cheapest Bulk, 200 rounds : Wholesale Hunter, Federal, Brass Casing, JSP, 2.51 per round (From Last Week: +.15 After Unchanged (5 Weeks)
.22 LR 40 Grain, From Last Week: Unchanged (2Q, 2017)
Cheapest, 50 rounds: Ammo King, Aguila, RNL, .04 per round
Cheapest Bulk, 500 rounds: Ammo King, Aguila, RNL, .04 per round (From Last Week: Unchanged (2Q, 2017))
Guns for Private Sale
Rifles
.223/5.56mm (AR Pattern Semiautomatic) Average Price: $439 Last Week Avg: $410(+) ($616 (2Q, 2015), $387 (8 Weeks))
Arizona (201, 3Q, 2017(+3))(172, 184): Mixed Build: $500 ($625 (7 Weeks)), $300 (6 Weeks))
Texas (484, 3Q, 2017(+3))(449, 480): Delton: $400 ($700 (1Q, 2015), $350 (2Q, 2015))
Pennsylvania (249, 3Q, 2017(+6))(203, 214): American Tactical Imports: $400 ($700 (2Q, 2015), $300 (3Q, 2015))
Virginia (282, 3Q, 2017)(235, 240): Anderson Arms: $400 ($750 (1Q, 2015), $400 (17 Weeks))
Florida (679, 3Q, 2017)(517, 559): Mixed Build: $450 ($650 (2Q, 2015), $380 (1Q, 2015))
.308 NATO (AR-10 Pattern Semiautomatic) Average Price: $804 Last Week Avg: $790(+) ($1,359 (2Q, 2015), $766 (18 Weeks))
Arizona (49, 3Q, 2017(+6))(43, 44): DPMS Panther: $850 ($2,300 (17 Weeks), $650 (40 Weeks))
Texas (178, 3Q, 2017)(107, 123): DPMS 308 Oracle: $750 ($1,500 (4Q, 2014), $675 (5 Weeks))
Pennsylvania (54, 3Q, 2017)(47, 47): Palmetto State Armory: $700 ($1,600 (48 Weeks), $700 (3Q, 2015))
Virginia (86, 3Q, 2017)(53, 57): Mixed Build: $995 ($2,750 (1Q, 2016), $750 (34 Weeks))
Florida (128, 3Q, 2017(+3))(99, 103): Palmetto State Armory: $725 ($1,950 (2Q, 1016), $500 (3Q, 2015))
7.62x39mm (AK Pattern Semiautomatic) Average Price: $556 Last Week Avg: $635(-) ($668 (3Q, 2016), $450 (3Q, 2015))
Arizona (34, 3Q, 2017(+3))(30, 30): Palmetto State Armory: $580 ($900 (17 Weeks), $400 (22 Weeks))
Texas (141, 3Q, 2017)(96, 102): RAS-47: $625 ($800 (1Q, 2016), $350 (3Q, 2014))
Pennsylvania (75, 3Q, 2017)(61, 56): Palmetto State Armory: $500 ($750 (1Q, 2015), $375 (1Q, 2015))
Virginia (72, 3Q, 2017)(68, 61): IO: $525 ($700 (2Q, 2016), $350 (1Q, 2015))
Florida (146, 3Q, 2017)(106, 115): WASR 10: $550 ($700 (1Q, 2016), $300 (4Q, 2014))
30-30 Winchester Lever Action Average Price: $385 Last Week Avg: $360(+) ($495 (50 Weeks), $296 (3Q, 2015))
Arizona (14, 3Q, 2017)(7, 8): Marlin 336: $350 ($500 (37 Weeks), $200 (22 Weeks))
Texas (33, 3Q, 2017(+2))(27, 29): Winchester Ranger: $350 ($550 (1Q, 2015), $295 (21 Weeks))
Pennsylvania (23, 3Q, 2017)(11, 10): Marlin 30A: $350 ($450 (1Q, 2015), $250 (4Q, 2014))
Virginia (18, 3Q, 2017(+2))(19, 18): Marlin: $350 ($670 (2Q, 2016), $250 (4Q, 2015))
Florida (34, 3Q, 2017)(29, 28): Winchester 94: $525 ($500 (1Q, 2015), $250 (2Q, 2015))
Pistols
.45 caliber ACP (M1911 Pattern Semiautomatic Pistol) Average Price: $421 Last Week Avg: $437(-) ($525 (3Q, 2016), $350 (4Q, 2015))
Arizona (134, 3Q, 2017(+4))(119, 125): Taurus: $380 ($700 (21 Weeks)), $325 (7 Weeks))
Texas (361, 3Q, 2017 (+2))(298, 313): Ruger SR1911: $500 ($600 (4Q, 2014)), $300 (44 Weeks))
Pennsylvania (178, 3Q, 2017)(166, 160): Rock Island Armory: $375 ($600 (9 Weeks)), $300 (2Q, 2015))
Virginia (197, 3Q, 2017)(183, 181): Iver Johnson: $500 ($775 (9 Weeks)), $250 (4Q, 2014))
Florida (440, 3Q, 2017)(368, 360): Tisas: $350 ($500 (1Q, 2016), $250 (1Q, 2015))
9mm (Beretta 92FS or other Semiautomatic) Average Price: $280 Last Week Avg: $280(=) ($358 (1Q, 2016), $207 (22 Weeks))
Arizona (238, 3Q, 2017)(223, 236): Sccy CPX2: $265 ($400 (28 Weeks), $200 (12 Weeks))
Texas (586, 3Q, 2017(+3))(559, 565): Taurus: $265 ($355 (1Q, 2015), $180 (8 Weeks))
Pennsylvania (368, 3Q, 2017)(331, 334): Smith & Wesson Model 59: $290 ($350 (4Q 2014), $150 (33 Weeks))
Virginia (348, 3Q, 2017(+3))(348, 343): Smith & Wesson SDVE9: $300 ($425 (4Q, 2016), $189 (2Q, 2016))
Florida (827, 3Q, 2017)(749, 767): Smith & Wesson SDVE9: $280 ($400 (1Q, 2016), $160 (22 Weeks))
.40 caliber S&W (Glock or other semiautomatic) Average Price: $321 Last Week Avg: $315(+) ($399 (1Q, 2016), $262 (2Q, 2016))
Arizona (77, 3Q, 2017(+2))(65, 67): Beretta PX-4 Storm: $400 ($500 (38 Weeks), $195 (18 Weeks))
Texas (156, 3Q, 2017(+2))(133, 143): Bersa BPE: $180 ($425 (4Q, 2014), $180 (CA: $200 (41 Weeks)))
Pennsylvania (108, 3Q, 2017)(112, 107): Smith & Wesson SD40VE: $275 ($450 (2Q, 2016), $200 (3Q, 2016))
Virginia (109, 3Q, 2017(+4))(92, 102): Smith & Wesson SD40VE: $400 ($450 (2Q, 2015), $275 (1Q, 2015))
Florida (193, 3Q, 2017(+3))(164, 169): Walther PPS: $350 ($400 (1Q, 2015), $199 (4Q, 2015))
Used Gun of the Week: (Nevada)
Daniel Defense rifle chambered in 5.56mm