By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
Some statistics from the Las Vegas shooting:
Steven Paddock fired a total of 1,000 rounds, all presumably of 5.56mm. Another 1,000 rounds were found in his hotel room.
Between 159 (the number I first heard) and 195 individuals were struck by gunfire.
I know people who say that taking 1,000 rounds of 5.56/.223 for a semiautomatic makes for a nice few hours at the gun range. It is not unusual for one shooter to have that much ammunition. ARs and AKs are hungry. In terms of the amount of ammunition Paddock had in the room, versus his expectations, it seems to me he didn't expect to be there long.
One thousand rounds were fired in 10 minutes, which to me sounds about right. Assuming an optimum fire rate of 600 rounds per minute, that is about all one shooter can do when firing pseudo automatic rifle fire: 100 rounds a minute. So that rate (600 RPM) has to be reduced for changing magazines, changing firearms, and other matters that can grab a shooter's time and attention.
Paddock killed a total of 59 individuals, so he wounded a total of (assuming an average of 177 gunshot victims) 118 people. You would almost have to assume, given the intensity of the rifle fire, that some people were struck two times or more and some were struck with a pass-through shot (one slug hitting two or more people).
Given the set of 177 people average struck by slugs, Paddock's hit ratio was about 17.5 percent (15.9 to 19.5 percent). His kill ratio was a little less than 5 percent. If you want to add in the rest of the crowd, his hit ratio was terrible, but then he was firing at a range and under environmental conditions not completely optimal for what Paddock wanted to do.
At the moment in firearms and Patriot blogs, and on YouTube, some people (mostly prior service military trading on their combat experience) are claiming that there was a second shooter. The sounds alone prove it, they say. Some have been saying a second shooter was in the Mandalay Hotel on the 4th floor. But after almost two weeks of investigation, federal, county and local law enforcement have yet to provide a chronology for the incident, let alone determine a conspiracy.
A second shooter assumes a conspiracy. A second shooter would have begun firing after Paddock began, but unlike Paddock the second shooter seems to have escaped attention of investigators. There is no indication anywhere in Las Vegas that a second shooter existed: no spent cartridges, no witnesses, no soot, no nothing.
All that to say this: This is a complex crime scene with so many rounds fired and so many killed and wounded. It may be months before anyone can say with any assurance exactly what happened, if there were a second shooter, or even Paddock's motivation.
I have that last part nailed down tight: He was a murdering bastard who wanted to go out in a blaze of glory.
Loads.
Rantburg's summary for arms and ammunition:
Pistol ammunition prices were mostly steady. Rifle ammunition prices were mixed.
Prices for used pistols were mixed. Prices for used rifles were higher across the board.
New Lows:
Arizona: .308 NATO (AR-10 Pattern Semiautomatic): DPMS Panther: $500
Pistol Ammunition
.45 Caliber, 230 Grain, From Last Week: Unchanged (3 Weeks)
Cheapest, 50 rounds: Highland Lakes Ammo, Own Brand, RNL, Brass Casing, Reloads .21 per round
Cheapest Bulk, 500 rounds: Highland Lakes Ammo, Own Brand, RNL, Brass Casing, Reloads, .21 per round (From Last Week: -.01 Each)
.40 Caliber Smith & Wesson, 180 Grain, From Last Week: -.03 each After Unchanged (3 Weeks)
Cheapest, 50 rounds: Bang it Ammo, FMJ, CCL Blazer, Brass Casing, .18 per round
Cheapest Bulk, 500 rounds: Ammo Valley, Own Brand, RNFP, Brass Casing, Reloads, .18 per round (From Last Week: Unchanged (4 Weeks))
9mm Parabellum, 115 Grain, From Last Week: Unchanged (7 Weeks)
Cheapest, 50 rounds: Extreme Reloading, Own Brand, RN, Brass Casing, Reloads, .14 per round
Cheapest Bulk, 500 rounds: Fedarm, Own brand, RN, Brass Casing, Reloads .13 per round (From Last Week: -.01 Each After Unchanged (6 Weeks))
.357 Magnum, 158 Grain, From Last Week: Unchanged (3 Weeks)
Cheapest, 50 rounds: Outdoor Limited, Tulammo, FMJ, Steel Casing, .23 per round
Cheapest Bulk: 1,000 rounds: Outdoor Limited, Tulammo, FMJ, Steel Casing, .23 per round (From Last Week: Unchanged (3Q, 2017))
.38 Special, 158 Grain, From Last Week: -.02 Each After Unchanged (2 Weeks)
Cheapest, 50 rounds: Outdoor Limited, Ten Ring, FMJ, Brass Casing .23 per round
Cheapest Bulk: 500 rounds: Ammo Valley, Own brand, FP, Brass Casing, Reloads, .24 per round (From Last Week: Unchanged (9 Weeks))
Rifle Ammunition
.223 Caliber/5.56mm 55 Grain, From Last Week: Unchanged (2 Weeks)
Cheapest, 20 rounds: Ammo Liquidator, Tulammo, FMJ, Steel Casing, .21 per round
Cheapest Bulk, 1,000 rounds: Ammo Liquidator, Tulammo, FMJ, Steel Casing, .21 per round (From Last Week: Unchanged (2 Weeks))
.308 NATO 150 Grain, From Last Week: Unchanged (3Q, 2017)
Cheapest, 20 rounds: Outdoor Unlimited, Tulammo, FMJ, Steel Casing, .32 per round
Cheapest Bulk, 500 rounds: Outdoor Unlimited, Tulammo, FMJ, Steel Casing, .32 per round (From Last Week: Unchanged (3Q, 2017))
7.62x39mm AK 123 Grain, From Last Week: +.03 Each After Unchanged (3Q, 2017)
Cheapest, 20 rounds: Target Sports USA, Wolf WPA, FMJ, Steel Casing, .21 per round
Cheapest Bulk, 1,000 rounds: True Caliber, Wolf WPA, Steel Casing, FMJ, .19 per round (From Last Week: Unchanged (3Q, 2017))
.30-06 Springfield 145 Grain. From Last Week: Unchanged (2 Weeks)
Cheapest, 20 rounds: Target Sports USA, Wolf WPA, Steel Casing, FMJ, .60 per round
Cheapest Bulk, 500 rounds: United Nations Ammo, Wolf WPA, Steel Casing, FMJ, .54 per round (From Last week: Unchanged (1Q, 2017))
.300 Winchester Magnum 150 Grain, From Last Week: Unchanged (2 Weeks)
Cheapest, 20 rounds: Ammo Liquidator, Winchester, Brass Casing, SP, .84 per round
Cheapest Bulk, 1,000 rounds: Ammo Liquidator, Winchester, Brass Casing, SP, .82 per round (From Last Week: Unchanged (6 Weeks))
.338 Lapua Magnum 250 Grain, From Last Week: +.04 Each
Cheapest, 20 rounds: Red River Reloading, Federal Eagle, Brass Casing, JSP, 2.41 per round
Cheapest Bulk, 200 rounds : Wholesale Hunter, Federal, Brass Casing, JSP, 2.51 per round (From Last Week: Unchanged (2 Weeks)
.22 LR 40 Grain, From Last Week: Unchanged (2Q, 2017)
Cheapest, 50 rounds: Ammo King, Aguila, RNL, .04 per round
Cheapest Bulk, 500 rounds: Ammo King, Aguila, RNL, .04 per round (From Last Week: Unchanged (2Q, 2017))
Guns for Private Sale
Rifles
.223/5.56mm (AR Pattern Semiautomatic) Average Price: $475 Last Week Avg: $439(+) ($616 (2Q, 2015), $387 (9 Weeks))
Arizona (201, 3Q, 2017(+3))(166, 172): Mixed Build: $500 ($625 (8 Weeks)), $300 (7 Weeks))
Texas (484, 3Q, 2017(+3))(450, 449): American Tactical Omni Hybrid: $550 ($700 (1Q, 2015), $350 (2Q, 2015))
Pennsylvania (249, 3Q, 2017(+6))(196, 203): Windham Weaponry: $475 ($700 (2Q, 2015), $300 (3Q, 2015))
Virginia (282, 3Q, 2017)(237, 235): Smith and Wesson M&P : $400 ($750 (1Q, 2015), $400 (18 Weeks))
Florida (679, 3Q, 2017)(495, 517): Ruger: $450 ($650 (2Q, 2015), $380 (1Q, 2015))
.308 NATO (AR-10 Pattern Semiautomatic) Average Price: $834 Last Week Avg: $804(+) ($1,359 (2Q, 2015), $766 (19 Weeks))
Arizona (49, 3Q, 2017(+6))(42, 43): DPMS Panther: $500 ($2,300 (18 Weeks), $500 (CA: $650 (40 Weeks)))
Texas (178, 3Q, 2017)(107, 107): DPMS 308 Oracle: $750 ($1,500 (4Q, 2014), $675 (6 Weeks))
Pennsylvania (54, 3Q, 2017)(41, 47): Palmetto State Armory: $1,200 ($1,600 (49 Weeks), $700 (3Q, 2015))
Virginia (86, 3Q, 2017)(54, 53): Mixed Build: $995 ($2,750 (1Q, 2016), $750 (35 Weeks))
Florida (128, 3Q, 2017(+3))(98, 99): Palmetto State Armory: $725 ($1,950 (2Q, 1016), $500 (3Q, 2015))
7.62x39mm (AK Pattern Semiautomatic) Average Price: $595 Last Week Avg: $556(+) ($668 (3Q, 2016), $450 (3Q, 2015))
Arizona (34, 3Q, 2017(+3))(26, 30): Zastava NPap: $750 ($900 (18 Weeks), $400 (23 Weeks))
Texas (141, 3Q, 2017)(93, 96): Zastava NPAP M70: $550 ($800 (1Q, 2016), $350 (3Q, 2014))
Pennsylvania (75, 3Q, 2017)(58, 61): CAI M70: $550 ($750 (1Q, 2015), $375 (1Q, 2015))
Virginia (72, 3Q, 2017)(61, 68): IO: $500 ($700 (2Q, 2016), $350 (1Q, 2015))
Florida (146, 3Q, 2017)(114, 106): WASR 10: $625 ($700 (1Q, 2016), $300 (4Q, 2014))
30-30 Winchester Lever Action Average Price: $351 Last Week Avg: $385(+) ($495 (51 Weeks), $296 (3Q, 2015))
Arizona (14, 3Q, 2017)(6, 7): Marlin 336: $259 ($500 (38 Weeks), $200 (23 Weeks))
Texas (33, 3Q, 2017)(24, 27): Winchester Ranger: $350 ($550 (1Q, 2015), $295 (22 Weeks))
Pennsylvania (23, 3Q, 2017)(14, 11): Marlin 30A: $350 ($450 (1Q, 2015), $250 (4Q, 2014))
Virginia (19, 3Q, 2017(+3))(15, 19): Winchester Ranger: $400 ($670 (2Q, 2016), $250 (4Q, 2015))
Florida (34, 3Q, 2017)(30, 29): Marlin 336: $400 ($500 (1Q, 2015), $250 (2Q, 2015))
Pistols
.45 caliber ACP (M1911 Pattern Semiautomatic Pistol) Average Price: $428 Last Week Avg: $421(+) ($525 (3Q, 2016), $350 (4Q, 2015))
Arizona (134, 3Q, 2017(+5))(123, 119): Rock Island Armory: $515 ($700 (22 Weeks)), $325 (8 Weeks))
Texas (361, 3Q, 2017 (+2))(284, 298): Citadel: $450 ($600 (4Q, 2014)), $300 (45 Weeks))
Pennsylvania (178, 3Q, 2017)(163, 166): Rock Island Armory: $375 ($600 (10 Weeks)), $300 (2Q, 2015))
Virginia (197, 3Q, 2017)(183, 183): Rock Island Armory: $450 ($775 (10 Weeks)), $250 (4Q, 2014))
Florida (440, 3Q, 2017)(357, 368): Tisas: $350 ($500 (1Q, 2016), $250 (1Q, 2015))
9mm (Beretta 92FS or other Semiautomatic) Average Price: $285 Last Week Avg: $280(+) ($358 (1Q, 2016), $207 (23 Weeks))
Arizona (238, 3Q, 2017)(230, 223): Ruger SR9c: $300 ($400 (29 Weeks), $200 (13 Weeks))
Texas (586, 3Q, 2017(+3))(570, 559): Smith & Wesson SW9VE: $285 ($355 (1Q, 2015), $180 (9 Weeks))
Pennsylvania (368, 3Q, 2017)(327, 331): Smith & Wesson Sigma: $190 ($350 (4Q 2014), $150 (35 Weeks))
Virginia (348, 3Q, 2017(+3))(347, 348): Walther PPS: $350 ($425 (4Q, 2016), $189 (2Q, 2016))
Florida (827, 3Q, 2017)(740, 749): Smith & Wesson SDVE9: $300 ($400 (1Q, 2016), $160 (23 Weeks))
.40 caliber S&W (Glock or other semiautomatic) Average Price: $290 Last Week Avg: $321(-) ($399 (1Q, 2016), $262 (2Q, 2016))
Arizona (77, 3Q, 2017(+2))(64, 65): Smith & Wesson: $280 ($500 (39 Weeks), $195 (19 Weeks))
Texas (156, 3Q, 2017(+2))(130, 133): Smith & Wesson SD40VE: $300 ($425 (4Q, 2014), $180 (2 Weeks)))
Pennsylvania (109, 3Q, 2017(+2))(109, 112): Kahr P40: $285 ($450 (2Q, 2016), $200 (3Q, 2016))
Virginia (109, 3Q, 2017(+4))(97, 22): Smith & Wesson SD40VE: $350 ($450 (2Q, 2015), $275 (1Q, 2015))
Florida (193, 3Q, 2017(+3))(168, 164): Taurus PT 140: $235 ($400 (1Q, 2015), $199 (4Q, 2015))
Used Gun of the Week: (Arizona)
Nighthawk Custom 1911 pattern semiautomatic chambered in .45 ACP