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Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

Rebels say the November 23rd attack in Frunze was just a start -- Updated

2017-11-26

Correction: According to data supplied by rebel officials in Donetsk, the OSCE never appeared in Gladosovo.
By Chris Covert

Russian backed rebels in Lugansk said Saturday that they suspect Ukrainian forces will attempt further attacks similar to the attack on November 23rd, according to Russian language and Ukrainian news accounts.

According to the rebels' own briefing, which appeared on an official Lugansk rebel government website, they found intelligence that the Ukrainians were preparing a number of probes into rebel positions across the P66 highway, which has been an issue between the two sides since early 2015.

According to Lugansk ministry of defense spokesman Lt. Colonel Andei Marochko, Ukrainian commanders were preparing to use night and winter weather to press their attacks.

Since 2016, Ukrainian commanders have changed their tactics to finding gray zones between the two forces, occupying them, and then reinforcing them. The tactic seems at first to create a favorable tactical position, especially since rebel forces are dug in all along the line of contact, and must then either adjust to the new occupation or change their own deployment strategy.

The day before the November 23rd attack on Frunze in far northern rebel held Lugansk, Ukrainian military spokesmen announced the capture of ground in a gray zone, according to a news account which appeared in the Ukrainian Russian language news outlet, korrespondent.net.

Rebel media only days had before announced that Ukrainian forces occupied the village of Gladosovo, forcing residents by threat of arms to stay indoors. Ukrainian media said that the village of Travnevoye was taken as well. A video released on a private military channel showed very well equipped Ukrainian soldiers passing out canned goods to civilian residents. The video also indicated that both villages were without power.

Donetsk rebel media said that some residents of Gladosovo were evicted, or were forced to quarter Ukrainian soldiers. Ukrainian military media has denied the charges.

According to a separate news account in korrespondent.net, Ukrainian plans were to occupy a much larger area north of Gorlovka, but those plans were trimmed when they were revealed on social media.

In a separate news release, Lt. Col. Marochko hinted that the attacks were intended to be a diversion to keep rebel forces occupied as Ukrainian forces move into other territory. The Ukrainians would stay aware of the rebels' reaction through the use of drones and other intelligence gathering techniques.

According to Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin, writing in his Live Journal blog, one member of the attack force was a straggler who sat out the night and then was captured by rebel patrols. A video was released showing the soldier in a rebel trench receiving first aid.

The soldier so far has been identified only as Roman, a Ukrainian intelligence officer, according to rebel reports. Rozhin said he will be in the next prisoner exchange, coming up soon.

The Lugansk rebel government has released photographs showing the aftermath of the encounter, some of them grisly displays.

Much of this increased activity can be attributed to the appointment of Lt. Gen. Mykhailo Zabrodsky to command Ukrainian military forces in southeastern Ukraine.

Lt. General Zabrodsky has been a commander in the Ukrainian civil war since the very start, heading among others the Ukrainian 95th Separate Airmobile Brigade. Lt. General Zabrodsky trained at the US Army's command and staff school in Fort Leavenworth.

It is worth adding at this point that Lugansk and Donetsk military officials have been cooperating recently in sweeping areas in Lugansk and near the Donetsk border for sabotage groups that might have infiltrated into Lugansk. Donetsk has sent military units to aid former Lugansk president Igor Plotnitsky in the past.

Chris Covert writes about foreign military issues for Rantburg.com. He can be reached at grurkka@gmail.com and on Twitter. You can read past articles about the 2014 war in southeastern Ukraine by clicking here.

Posted by:badanov

#3 I admit I haven't been following this war very closely. But it seems they've been going at it for quite some time now without either side being able to gain any kind of advantage. Rather than continue to waste blood and treasure, isn't it about time for them to negotiate some kind of a compromise?

Neither side wants to compromise. The rebels want reunification with the Musovites and Ukraine won't accept automomy.

The basics are this: Ukraine wants to eliminate all Russian influence by banning the Russian language, as Czar Aleksandr II did the Ukrainian language in the mid-1800s.

And Ukraine has reciprocated, by banning the use of the Russian language officially earlier this year, and in films, books, etc. Two years after the coup, Russian speaking Ukrainians were told their language would eventually not be used in conducting business with the government, so the supporters of the Maidan government made good on their threat.

Russians (from Russia) have two major beefs with Ukraine, and the first is the government of Ukraine was, for all intents and purposes, imposed by coup by NATO and the US. In the Russians' view, that act alone placed NATO and the US in breach of treaties that said NATO would not try to expand, which they wound up doing anyway.

When the ABMs were talked about, Putin's military commanders said deployment of those missiles are not meant to protect Europe from Iran, but to be used as a shield against Russia in anticipation of a ground offensive against Russia.

When the government of Ukraine was deposed, Putin made a decision to protect Russian interests in Crimea, where they have a naval base and airfields they have held since the 1800s, by annexing Crimea.

Now there is some doubt as to the veracity but FSB operative Igor Girkin claimed to have been the commander for the takeover in Crimea, which for all the displays of military power, was bloodless.

Girkin also was the prime operative in fomenting the rebellion against Ukraine, starting in Slavyansk. When the new Maidan government started to use their own military power to crush the rebellion, is when, I assume, Russian military equipment, including heavy vehicles and individual soldiers -- active duty as well as veterans of previous wars (Afghanistan, Chechnya, South Ossetia, etc) -- were sent across the border to aid the rebels.

Ukrainian claim that whole Russian brigade sized formations are deployed in southeastern Ukraine, but my personal belief is that they are there to act as a fire brigade.

The rest is history.

Most of those fellas fighting at the beginning in Slavyansk now hold higher military and in political posts within Lugansk and Donetsk, so they are naturally afraid that Putin could hang them out to dry. They won't negotiate unless they get an out.

And I don't blame them.

Hope this helps.

Posted by: badanov 2017-11-26 18:04

#2 Not while EU stirs the pot, Abu.

Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2017-11-26 15:54

#1 I admit I haven't been following this war very closely. But it seems they've been going at it for quite some time now without either side being able to gain any kind of advantage. Rather than continue to waste blood and treasure, isn't it about time for them to negotiate some kind of a compromise?

Posted by: Abu Uluque 2017-11-26 15:13

00:00