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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| Taking Stock: An Analysis of Russia’s Military Campaign in Syria |
| 2018-02-07 |
| [SmallWarsJournal] On December 11, 2017, Vladimir Putin announced the withdrawal of the majority of Russia’s military presence from Syria. Though he has made similar announcements in the past, there is mounting evidence that major military operations are nearing their end. Two years have passed since operations began – and it is time to take stock of Russia’s achievements. The primary goal of the Russian intervention was to protect Bashar al-Assad from regime change – this necessitated degrading U.S.-backed irregular forces, and later transforming the character of the conflict. In short order, Russia secured a long-term presence and improved a once decrepit naval facility in Tartus, as well as assisted Regime forces in the recapture of vast swaths of Eastern and South-Eastern Syria. Finally, while far from being the primary objective of Russia’s intervention, it contributed to the degradation of ISIL forces in Homs and Deir Ezzor governorates. Once the Russian military achieved these goals, the Kremlin began to value Syria as diplomatic leverage, positioning Russia as the linchpin in negotiations about Syria’s political future. Moscow also demonstrated a commitment to defend its allies and the capacity to conduct large-scale anti-terror operations. Russia’s surprisingly adroit use of expeditionary military power has challenged many existing geopolitical power structures in the Middle East. Going forward, as Nicholas Heras, a noted expert on the region, put it: “from their base in Syria, the Russians can continue to seek to project influence into the wider Middle East.” Further, Moscow’s military deployments and procurement strategy indicate that it is committed to the region for the long-term. It should be noted that Russia’s battlefield successes did not take place in a vacuum – they benefited substantially from U.S. Combined Joint Task Force: Inherent Resolve operations against ISIL in Iraq and Syria. The transformation of Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into a capable fighting force in northern Syria also contributed to the reduction in ISIL held territory. Significant regime victories, including the capture of the Rebel-held neighborhoods of Aleppo in December 2016, can also be attributed in part to internal divisions within the Syrian opposition – and in particular due to these groups’ uneven levels of military effectiveness. Second, Idlib province remains a rebel-held stronghold and is the bulwark of the remaining opposition. Rebel forces in Idlib have become a hodgepodge of Free Syrian Army remnants and Jihadists groups, including Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra. While the radicalization of opposition forces there might encourage military solutions, both Russia and the United States have indicated they favor resolving the Idlib problem via various peace-talk formats. The Syrian government will soon face the difficult challenge of reconstruction, which will be fraught with domestic political challenges. It also remains unclear how Syria will finance such a program. If mishandled, the reconstruction efforts could risk reigniting violent unrest and could fail to address the root causes of the civil war, leaving the door open for future violence. Moscow will be inclined to accept western contributions to this reconstruction effort, as Russia lacks the necessary resources to rebuild Syria but continues to fear the rise of extremist groups |
| Posted by:3dc |
| #1 Russians have a huge advantage over USA in these sort of operations - they never forget that the locals are vermin. |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2018-02-07 01:40 |