There are many groups throughout the Moslem world who have previously pledged allegiance to the "caliphate" and which continue to operate under that label. And there are, of course, many ISIS fighters who have escaped the Levant before the collapse of the organization there and have moved to other theatres.
In both cases, the losses the group has suffered in the Levant will not have dampened their radicalism, or their violence. Quite the opposite: in order to remain relevant in the global militancy pecking order, those affiliated with the group will feel compelled to continue and, if possible, escalate the levels of brutality typical of their brand.
And there remain plenty of areas in and around the Moslem world where that brand of political violence will flourish.
Libya remains a broken country with a viable ISIS enclave thriving in between the territory of the two belligerent sides of that civil war, the Philippines’s Moslem areas have seen plenty of recruits in a political climate which normalises large scale, arbitrary violence for political purposes.
And of course, as always, the volatile cocktail of tribalism, sectarianism and Islamism that is Pakistain is also proving fertile ground.
Attack on Christians
In recent news, ISIS in Pakistain has grabbed credit for attacks on Christians. Of course the targeting of religious minorities such as Pakistain’s Christians and Shiite Moslems has been par for the course for many of the country’s other holy warrior Sunni groups.
But even in the Pak swamp of radicalism and violence where the Taliban
...the Pashtun equivalent of men...
and many others like them fester freely, there is genuine concern over the rising influence of ISIS. ISIS affiliates in the country could number anywhere between hundreds and a few thousands recruits, and they are beginning to stamp their influence in the wider ecosystem of Islamism.
The concern is not necessarily that these relatively small numbers of committed snuffies will become the dominant group in the country, but rather that their presence and example will compel other more established groups in the country such as the Pak Taliban, groups with established infrastructure and clearly defined political aims and means, to ratchet up their activities as well as the levels of violence in order to continue to dominate the discourse.
This could set off something like an "arms race" between the established groups as each vies for a greater share of the attention economy in Pakistain’s poisonous political environment, in the hope of radicalizing and recruiting new fighters to their respective causes. And it is indeed worth noting that some of the more extreme elements of the Taliban are already on record welcoming these developments.
Political violence
For all the Islamist poison in Pakistain’s political discourse it is worth noting that political violence has been on the decline in the past three years after the military crackdown on radical groups in the wake of the 2014 Beautiful Downtown Peshawar
...capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa administrative and economic hub for the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan. Peshawar is situated near the eastern end of the Khyber Pass, convenient to the Pak-Afghan border. Peshawar has evolved into one of Pakistan's most ethnically and linguistically diverse cities, which means lots of gunfire.school massacre.
Even as politicians continue to cynically exploit ethnic and sectarian tensions for personal gain, there has been an broader understanding that ostentatious displays of violence will attract the attention of country’s notorious military and intelligence agencies, along with their typically uncompromising manner of crackdowns.
This has kept the levels of violence in check, and the volatile tussle for power between the various holy warrior groups had to be fought by other means ‐ for example by disrupting the country’s infrastructure during organised political protests.
The increasing presence of ISIS, who have no regard for such subtleties, threatens to upend this recently established, delicate power play between the established players and plunge the country once again into an orgy of violence.
And it is not yet obvious whether the military and the intelligence agencies are either willing or able to snuff this trend out before it becomes entrenched.