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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| How have Iran's intelligence forces broken down in face of explosions? |
| 2020-07-10 |
| [JPost] - Iran is facing a total intelligence breakdown. With another explosion on Thursday night, reportedly at an Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps facility, the question is not only how anyone has pulled up to seven attacks off in around two weeks, but how has the Islamic Republic repeatedly failed to stop them. From 2010-2013, the regime succeeded in cracking a CIA cell and eliminated many CIA operatives. Even when the US and Israel, according to foreign reports, breached Iran's security for its nuclear program with the Stuxnet virus in 2009-2010, they had to use assets of Dutch intelligence. In general, Iranian counterintelligence is known as performing at a much higher level than most Israeli adversaries. Sometimes they falsely announce arrests of Mossad agents who are just political opposition members, but sometimes they can flush out spies at a professional level closer to the world's top powers. Until Israel's January 2018 operation seizing Iran's nuclear secrets, Iranian territory was thought of as much harder to penetrate than Syrian territory, where Israel has admitted to thousands of intelligence and airstrike operations. In the days of Meir Dagan, a score of attacks on Iranian nuclear scientists were attributed to the Mossad. But much of that was over a decade ago and many of the scientists were killed alone and outside their facilities — presumably, easier targets than penetrating and exploding whole facilities like a set of dominoes. What the world is witnessing right now is someone (the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, possibly with Iranian dissident proxy help) hitting Iranian nuclear and conventional weapons and IRGC facilities practically at will. And they are doing it in a way that has virtually never been witnessed in recent memory. ...However, what we appear to be witnessing are the limits of a second-tier counterintelligence force. Up against a premier intelligence or cyber power, Iran is apparently near defenseless. The questions remaining then are how long these attacks can continue and whether Iran can cope with them or may make some sort of secret contact to cut a deal to get them stopped. If it does not, the message from whoever is making this happen is clear: continued aggressive actions on nuclear and other fronts will lead to consequences that the ayatollahs had never imagined. |
| Posted by:g(r)omgoru |
| #11 Maybe Mephisto! (lol) |
| Posted by: Clem 2020-07-10 20:53 |
| #10 G(r)om, did Zarathustra sprach that to you? |
| Posted by: ed in texas 2020-07-10 20:52 |
| #9 #8 Well things were kinda quiet - because the West Bank is on lockdown. But, it shouldn't affect things - different departments. And, in any case, I think it's the wrath of Ahura Mazda with the worshipers of the Moon God. |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2020-07-10 14:24 |
| #8 It looks like Bibi’s big warehouse raid picked up more than just nuclear bomb information. One advantage of the coronavirus lockdown is that it appears Israel needn’t spend nearly as much time dealing with domestic nonsense — there are hardly any articles on the subject to post nowadays. g(romgoru, is that your impression, too? |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2020-07-10 13:53 |
| #7 Once an intel org misses a certain number of Big Events, for whatever reason, it starts to look inward--more than its usual caution--and that reduces efficiency. Fewer people are willing to work with an operative if the previous guy got burned over a slow fire on account of suspicion..... Good agents, or mediocre ones for that matter, can be investigated for normal activities not sufficiently recorded. Who leaked Soleimani? Maybe nobody. Maybe it was strictly sigint. But you can't be sure so it has to be investigated and everything slows down . And bosses need scapegoats to CYA. And the it's Howdy Doody time. See the CIA. |
| Posted by: Richard Aubrey 2020-07-10 11:35 |
| #6 Mogen David is pretty sugary for a wine. You might want to spike it with some vodka. |
| Posted by: lord garth 2020-07-10 11:15 |
| #5 Iran recently signed a very strange deal with the PRC. It allows the PRC to station troops anywhere it wants in Iran at anytime for any purpose. In addition it allows ChiCom business to set up an run businesses anywhere in Iran without supervision or normal controls. This sort of deal almost requires a monster to exist in the first place. Every time one sees a deal like this there is always the chance that those the deal benefits (China) are the actual monster. Iran may have been rickrolled by China. |
| Posted by: 3dc 2020-07-10 10:22 |
| #4 Remember that Mogen David wine must be chilled before serving! |
| Posted by: Clem 2020-07-10 09:03 |
| #3 Congrats Israel. You broke them. Wine and cheese platter celebration at my house! |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2020-07-10 08:31 |
| #2 Well, it helps having all these agents among IRGC elites. |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2020-07-10 07:58 |
| #1 They aren't getting help from the Chinese? No help from the Eurine states that sold them the "dual use" goods? Anyone? Bueller? |
| Posted by: M. Murcek 2020-07-10 07:19 |