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Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
From January: The likelihood is that Russia will invade Ukraine, here's why and what the objectives are likely to be.
2022-03-14
[Bolton's Blog - 18 Jan 2022] Russia has deployed an estimated 100,000-125,000 troops - around 75% of Russia’s total ground combat power — to Ukraine’s eastern borders. President Putin has issued demands and threats to Ukraine and NATO, has launched swathing cyber attacks against Ukraine, and has increased the rhetoric aimed at his domestic audience. All the signs are that the Kremlin is poised to strike, but will they and, if so, at what and why?

In addition to the Black Sea deposits in Crimean waters, Ukraine has massive gas reserves in the east of the country, in particular the huge Yuzivske field. With these deposits, Ukraine holds 5.4 trillion cubic metres of gas, the third largest reserves in Europe.

When Russia occupied Crimea in 2014 Ukraine lost, and Russia gained, the huge gas deposits under the Scythian section of the Black Sea Shelf.

The Black Sea Shelf deposits had been under exploration for several years and Ukraine finally awarded the licences for their exploration in August 2012. Ukraine did not possess the technology or expertise to exploit the deposits itself (they are very deep), and so the contracts were inevitably going to go abroad.

Given the very close association between then Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and President Putin, the Kremlin expected the contracts would be issued to the Russian energy giant, Gazprom. But the Kremlin should have foreseen a problem. Until the Russian occupation of Crimea and the Donbas in eastern Ukraine, Ukraine imported almost all its gas from Gazprom. Gazprom had, in turn, imposed numerous price hikes on Ukraine and Ukraine’s gas distributor Naftogaz, had struggled to pay the bills. By 2014, Naftogaz owed Gazprom US$4.5 billion. Because of the repeated price hikes and resulting tensions between Gazprom and Naftogaz, Ukraine had been trying to establish other, non-Russian supplies. It turned to Europe for them, and when the contract licences were issued for exploitation of Ukraine’s on gas they went not to Gazprom and Russia, but to a group led by American ExxonMobil but including Dutch-British Royal Dutch Shell and Romanian OMV Petrom, working with the Ukrainian state company Nadra.

Posted by:Besoeker

#3  Jones is an enigma in a way in that he's prescient in some ways and just a loud mouth in other (most) ways. I might visit his site a bit more, but I can't take all of the nonsense vitamin/health supplement advertisements.

And you mean to tell me that vitamin sales fund his operation? Give me a break.
Posted by: DooDahMan   2022-03-14 22:14  

#2  I saw an Alex Jones video he posted back in October saying Russia would invade Ukraine in Late Feb and wrapped his reasoning in conspiracy theory stuff. I still don't know what to make of that but the video was pulled from YouTube.
Posted by: ruprecht   2022-03-14 19:46  

#1  
As I stated early on I felt that the Russian / Ukraine issue was going to be mainly used as Media Deflection for the Biden Admin/LSD bag full of mistakes and economic issues. In this issue I was correct.

The areas I was mistaken in were underestimating;

* The Stupid Assinne levels that the Biden Admin and the LSD's could handle of it.

* Their willingness to screw over USA Citizens in how the Oil issue was handled in a Greenie Agenda 1st agenda.

* Their inability to see the far-reaching ramifications of their actions in the USA FOOD and Fuel market.

* The level of the Biden Admin/LSD grade school playground diplomacy and handling of Putin & China.

* Ukraine's ability and willingness to defend itself against Russia.
Posted by: NN2N1   2022-03-14 05:06  

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