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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| The Moskva Riddle |
| 2022-04-26 |
| [The Burning Platform] Neither NATO nor Russia is telling us what really happened with the Moskva, the legendary admiral ship of the Black Sea fleet. NATO because in theory, they know. Moscow, for its part, made it clear they are not saying anything until they can be sure what happened. One thing is certain. If the Russian Ministry of Defense finds out that NATO did it, they will let loose all the dogs from Hell on NATO, as in "asymmetrical, lethal and fast". On Moskva’s location: it was positioned near one of 3 drilling rigs, used for monitoring a whole sector of the Black Sea with hydrophones and NEVA-BS radar, the most westward one, BK-2 Odessa, approximately 66 km northeast from Snake Island. The whole thing was integrated in the regional monitoring systems. As in everything, literally, was monitored: ships, low flying targets, smaller echoes, even the bobbing head of an unsuspecting swimmer. So there was a quite slim chance that anything — not to mention subsonic Neptune missiles and Bayraktar drones — could have slipped through this aerial net. So what could have possibly happened? It could have been some kind of underwater drone, released either from some sneaky sub, or by a SBS team, coming from the western coast, with a stopover at Snake Island. Then that drone somehow managed to drill itself through the Moskva’s hull from below — and exploded its payload inside. What follows comes from a top source in Brussels: serious, trustworthy, proven record spanning nearly two decades. Yet he may be just spreading disinformation. Or bragging. Or that may be rock solid intel. Before we start, we should point out it’s hard to believe the Neptune/Bayraktar fairytale angle. After all, as we’ve seen, the Russian fleet had established a multidimensional surveillance/defense layer in the direction of Odessa. |
| Posted by:Besoeker |
| #32 Neptue is roughly equivalent to a US Harpoon missile, some say its basically a copy with modern electronics due to access to western tech. Also it appears a nearly identical missile, named the Kumsong 3, has been seen being tested in North Korea as far back as 2014. I believe it is also a sea skimmer, and uses Inertial nav and then a terminal acvtive radar homing for the final attack. It doesnt require a conspiracy for these to have been effective. Look to the FAA accident reports and the "swiss cheese" model of root cause analysis. First off, if the missile took a dog-leg course in to come from an unexpected azimuth, one designed to avoid most detection, that would account for the lack of timely defensive actions. The fleet also demonstrated poor security (see the Russian landing ship destroyed in port_prior to this), the primary threat orientation axis wat likely focused toward the coast, and the presence of a Bayraktar TB2 in the area (possibly as a spotter) being a big distraction as well (to the wrong axis), add to thtat the demonstrated poor command and control capabilities of Russian command and staff (meaning the distraction would have drawn too much attention away from other threats until too late), and the Russian reputation for poor maintenance in peacetime, and absolutely terrible damage control capability... You don't need a conspiracy at all. Just luck and timing to sink the Moskva. Its not one of those things the Ukrainian could depend on, like an Alpha Strike from a carrier group, but it's one of those "keep throwing stuff until something gets thru" moments that can happen in a war. The article is full of far less probable and sensational fantasy tales. Sometimes the truth is rather simple and obvious if one looks at all the available data. |
| Posted by: Chealing Chomotle4158 2022-04-26 20:29 |
| #31 I'm thinking back on the Falklands war when the General Belgrano got hit by a torpedo? and could have survived except the water-tight doors couldn't be sealed because they had year after year of paint on them without anyone ever chipping the paint off first. From what I've seen of the Russian land forces that kind of thing seems very possible. |
| Posted by: ruprecht 2022-04-26 18:29 |
| #30 Moskva is an old ship from 80's. If the attack was with Neptune it should have still downed a couple of them, albeit not knowing radar and weapons status in the ship Still it is clear they did not know what attacked them. The radar directors are all in default position so it appears there was no defence engaged. |
| Posted by: Kofi Panda2845 2022-04-26 18:14 |
| #29 Keep in mind the Moskva doesn't function equivalently to an aegis destroyer; it doesn't have 360 degree coverage of the airspace around it with a phased array radar, and the close-in weapons don't have their own search radars the way the phalanx system does on an American ship. (Oh, and all those have failed on American ships before). Based on the descriptions I read, it had the same radars etc. it had back in the 80's. Which weren't up to standard with an old western AEGIS sysem built then. I think the "We could surveil everything in the area" argument is inaccurate. |
| Posted by: Thing From Snowy Mountain 2022-04-26 16:45 |
| #28 Imagine a giant country, with limited strength, a massive inferiority complex, and a real short temper. |
| Posted by: JHH 2022-04-26 16:27 |
| #27 Perhaps the reason the Russians are not saying anything is because they know NATO was responsible/complicit and now is not the time to respond. I don't think so. Already Russian internal propaganda is already framing this war as one between Russia and the NATO "Infrastructure" and I doubt for one minute that Putie-Pie wouldn't scream bloody murder if NATO helped sink the Moskva. For me that plants this firmly into Russia knowing that the crew was short handed and not trained and incompetent. Either a mishap or not being able to stop two anti-ship missiles is enough of a black eye for Russia not to respond. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2022-04-26 14:52 |
| #26 Good article at Burning Platform! Just thinking out loud... Perhaps the reason the Russians are not saying anything is because they know NATO was responsible/complicit and now is not the time to respond. Also, why isn't JTOL (Just Thinking Out Loud) a standard internet acronym? |
| Posted by: SteveS 2022-04-26 13:56 |
| #25 “How did the Moskav sink?” Who cares, “Its dead , Jim.” |
| Posted by: USN, Ret. 2022-04-26 13:49 |
| #24 If the Moskva put to sea shorthanded, you can toss their readiness and damage control standards right out the window. |
| Posted by: badanov 2022-04-26 13:32 |
| #23 Usually anti-ship missiles fly out to a programmed location before they search. Ships don’t change locations far or fast. I could be wrong. I have not studied the Neptune. Keeping damage control parties trained with people rotating in and out in a conscription situation would be difficult. Not sure the Russian Navy would be up to that readiness challenge. The Soviets used to just anchor and rust. |
| Posted by: Super Hose 2022-04-26 13:16 |
| #22 Some conspiracy mongers were worked up that A P-8 had been in the area. I don't know if it was there at the time of the event, but if so, it would have seen things. But it's not an AWACS. It can't direct things. Not non-US made weapons things, at any rate. |
| Posted by: M. Murcek 2022-04-26 12:59 |
| #21 Russian ministry of defense has given every indication they are not certain what happened. Which means NATO knows exactly what happened, were it a missile strike. They also said that they would announce their findings, but no timeline was given. |
| Posted by: badanov 2022-04-26 12:32 |
| #20 Active Defense Fail could be simply a chain of 'Unfortunate Events' such as corrupt manufacturing practices, failure to properly maintain the onboard arsenal and just bad training... All properly documented (AKA 'paper over') as being in "good working order" by the officers involved. |
| Posted by: magpie 2022-04-26 12:00 |
| #19 If Russia or NATO announced what happened would anyone believe them? |
| Posted by: Airandee 2022-04-26 11:57 |
| #18 In reading the full article from Burning Platform, several points it makes seem relevant. While not defining the number of drones initially involved in the precursor attack, it does suggest they caused significant physical damage to onboard antenna arrray leaving the ship "half=blind". Additionally, it suggests that the missile strike may have used external (possibly NATO) guidance to avoid using the internal missile guidance radar, thus reducing the warning time onboard Moskva to as little as 45 seconds. If the CIC was overwhelmed with damage control or sensor input overload, it may explain the failure of CIWS to prevent the Neptune impacts. To me, it seems these make the Ukrainian story reasonable, when added to the reasonable possibility of drone attack on sensor arrays onboard. But I'm not a alumnus of Canoe U so I look to others for thoughts more maritime. |
| Posted by: NoMoreBS 2022-04-26 11:49 |
| #17 @#13 - Ditto for the corrupt Ukrainians. |
| Posted by: DooDahMan 2022-04-26 11:46 |
| #16 #14 Well, given the Russian Army's various failures, is it too outlandish to think the Navy might also have screwed the pooch? Posted by Mercutio Possible course of action could've been a crew member...Ukrainian leanings. Sabotage. |
| Posted by: Tennessee 2022-04-26 09:32 |
| #15 #12 Darth, was Stark escorted or, itself, an escort? It was part of a Task Force, but mostly off by itself in a screening role from what I have read. Ships did come to its aid after the strikes. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2022-04-26 09:09 |
| #14 Well, given the Russian Army's various failures, is it too outlandish to think the Navy might also have screwed the pooch? |
| Posted by: Mercutio 2022-04-26 09:04 |
| #13 Here's a conspiracy theory: The fleet's air defense systems were undermined by the theft of 70% of the fleet's air defense budget. But we know that kind of thing could never happen in Putin's Russia. |
| Posted by: Matt 2022-04-26 08:51 |
| #12 Darth, was Stark escorted or, itself, an escort? |
| Posted by: Rob Crawford 2022-04-26 08:51 |
| #11 The USS Stark got hit despite its sensors and defense. The missile came in the one blind spot and its active defenses were not turned on until it was too late. I suspect a similar round of incompetence happened on the Moskva. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2022-04-26 08:29 |
| #10 Funny, though, how "conspiracy theories" have a way of panning out. I think Gore Vidal said he's not a "conspiracy theorist but rather a conspiracy analyst". |
| Posted by: DooDahMan 2022-04-26 07:57 |
| #9 /\ Valid point Rob. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2022-04-26 07:37 |
| #8 I don't understand the desperation to enlarge this story. The Moskva was operating near the coast; the Ukrainians had a decent idea where it was. The drones they licensed were reported -- by Russia -- as "harassing" the Moskva before the explosion. The next day the Russians struck a munitions plant they had previously ignored -- the very one that makes the Neptune missile. The only open questions are: what happened to the Moskva's own active defenses, what happened to its escorts and their defenses, and what happened to the Moskva's damage control. I guess spinning conspiracy theories attracts eyeballs, but it doesn't enlighten anyone. Just the opposite, in fact. |
| Posted by: Rob Crawford 2022-04-26 07:36 |
| #7 /\ Disregard the audience moans Hupes. Hold that thought and put it on butcher paper. Tape it to the wall next to the Riddle. We could at some point, be coming back to it. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2022-04-26 07:09 |
| #6 <wildspeculation> If this theory is true what are the odds that the deadly March 3rd aircraft crashes in Romania were caused by Russian foul play and that the Moskva strike was NATO's retaliation? </wildspeculation> |
| Posted by: Elmerert Hupens2660 2022-04-26 07:05 |
| #5 I'm assuming no alien involvement rules out a Tucker Carlson segment. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2022-04-26 06:50 |
| #4 The Russians clearly believe it was done by Neptune missiles -- the next day they bombed the plant where they're made, despite leaving if untouched up to that point. |
| Posted by: Rob Crawford 2022-04-26 06:30 |
| #3 At least the author didn't propose a suicidal, homosexual lover's spat as the cause. |
| Posted by: Skidmark 2022-04-26 05:50 |
| #2 "...No one permitted to go about without a keeper could possibly believe this - " - Edmund Burke Mike |
| Posted by: Mike Kozlowski 2022-04-26 04:50 |
| #1 How about we all hope and pray this is all tinfoil hat speculation or pure rubbish ? |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2022-04-26 03:18 |