Commentary by Russian military blogger Andrey Chervonets
Tomorrow, at the NATO base in Ramstein, in Germany, a meeting of the Ministry of Defense of the members of the North Atlantic Alliance will be held, Zelensky, after the unsuccessful "counterattack on Kherson", needs at least some kind of "victory" to show his "professional suitability" and beg NATO for as many weapons as possible. For this reason, yesterday the Armed Forces of Ukraine began their attacks near Balakleya, throwing into battle the last more or less prepared reserves.
So far, all events take place on a patch of about 5x5 kms. After the first attack, the units mobilized in the Donbass republics stationed in this sector withdrew to the second line of defense.
According to data from the field, the APU is moving forward along the small intestine to the west of the river. Middle Balakleyka, so far he has not crossed it anywhere). He has now taken the western part of Volokhov Yar, which is on the western bank of the river, and Semenovka, also located on the western bank of the river.
The enemy, in order not to get bogged down in Volokhov Yar (the intersection from which two arrows go), tried to twitch along the highway towards Izyum, but got hit in the neck.
It is obvious that the supply of the enemy is his weakest point, and therefore, in view of the insufficiency of the pontoon park and the ability to protect the crossing from strikes (Russian aviation in the air), he goes along the watershed and thus everything will be decided today between the Chkalovsky fortified area of ​​the RF Armed Forces and Shevchenkovo. The fast pace in this case brings both advantages (according to the idea of ​​​​the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the enemy should falter and run, but they are not running yet) and problems. The very long gut is vulnerable on the flanks and it will be impossible to supply it if the offensive is stalled.
To solve this problem, the Armed Forces of Ukraine desperately need to take Chkalovskoye under control. Without this, further advance is very, very risky.
In this configuration, the failure to capture Balakleya for the strike force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (where our forces are still holding out) is like a nail in the ass. And be that as it may, this is a breakthrough ... It remains only to find out whether the situation will repeat for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which developed after the "counterattack on Kherson", when the best units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were defeated.
Now the Allied forces are pulling up reserves to the battlefield, artillery and aviation are actively working.