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| ‘Putin May be Evil, But the Kremlin is Not Suicidal.’ - General Ben Hodges |
| 2022-10-11 |
| [YouTube] The Renew Democracy Initiative brings you the third episode of our video series on the war in Ukraine in collaboration with New Debate and General Ben Hodges. Join General Hodges as he walks through what he believes to be a new phase of the war, the most recent updates on Ukraine's counteroffensive, and the path forward. We offer an inside look into Russia's deteriorating situation, the Kremlin's use of sham referendums and mass mobilization, the importance of Western resolve during the upcoming winter, and whether or not Russia will use a nuclear weapon. The Kremlin recognizes that the situation in Ukraine is deteriorating for them. General Hodges states that a lack of trust within Russia and severe corruption within its Ministry of Defense defines this new phase in the war. He notes two recent events that help identify the Kremlin's worsening situation. First is the incoherent and sloppy call for the partial mobilization of Russian civilians. The second event is the occurrence of sham referendums and attempted illegal annexations of the four oblasts, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Kherson. Both actions violated international law. The Russian Ministry of Defense’s mobilization order was uncoordinated and poorly orchestrated. Instead of marshaling a patriotic and coherent response from its civilians, thousands of fleeing men met the call for mobilization to desperately avoid conscription. On Russia’s forceful and illegitimate land grabs, numerous heads of state, leaders of international organizations, and the UN Secretary-General have all declared the referendums a sham and refuse to recognize the results. These referendums and the subsequent annexation of Ukrainian territory are used to explain the defense of stolen territory and to justify the necessity of the Kremlin’s partial mobilization. Russia’s sham referenda and partial mobilization indicate that the Kremlin does not care for any real form of democracy and that Putin is desperately trying to hold on to his regime and salvage the situation. The annexation of Ukrainian territory has raised fears of Russia using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, as any attack on the Russian motherland could be used as a pretext for a nuclear strike. General Hodges believes this is unlikely, as using a tactical nuclear weapon would not offer Russia a plan with strategic options and would only offer downsides. For a nuclear strike to be beneficial for Russia, it would have to create an opportunity for Russian troops to move through a gap created by the nuclear weapon. Russia does not have the forces necessary for this. Furthermore, the Kremlin knows they cannot use nuclear weapons without forcing the United States to respond proportionally. This response could range from the destruction of vital Russian Federation forces, such as destroying the Black Sea Fleet or even attacking the Russian navy base in Tartus in Syria. However, while Putin may be evil, he and the Kremlin are not suicidal. Therefore, Hodges believes that Russia will not resort to a nuclear option. Ukrainian forces continue to make steady progress in the country's southern and eastern territories. Having recently recaptured the city of Lyman, Ukrainian troops continue to repel Russian forces and gain irreversible momentum with each city they liberate. Hodges is confident that Ukrainian forces will push Russian troops back to the lines on February 23rd, 2022, and that by the summer of 2023, Ukraine will regain control of the Crimean Peninsula. Winter is nearly here, and as energy prices increase across the globe, it will be a harsh one. However, General Hodges argues that this sacrifice is necessary and that the West must maintain its support for Ukraine this winter and allow them to continue their counteroffensive and retake control of their land from the grip of Russian tyranny. |
| Posted by:DarthVader |
| #5 Putin doesn't launch nukes. Launch officers launch nukes upon orders. So a guy who really does have the button is looking around.... He's okay. His family is okay. If he follows orders, then he and his family are dead within half an hour. For what? As a general rule, this sort of thing is done when..."NUKES INCOMING!", or when you have been told you can do a successful decapitating strike. Won't be anything back. Nope. Not seeing it, even if a nuke strike is ordered. |
| Posted by: Richard Aubrey 2022-10-11 23:45 |
| #4 From those that were closer to Putin, they say he is very brave, until he is close to the event. Then he is pragmatic and won't risk himself or his family. If he could launch nukes an be safe, he would. Otherwise he will be reluctant. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2022-10-11 22:29 |
| #3 Career bureaucrats are the very soul of caution -- if they act. |
| Posted by: magpie 2022-10-11 17:01 |
| #2 ..assumes its the same Kremlin as we faced off during the Cold War. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2022-10-11 16:27 |
| #1 Don’t YouTube much-why is Kremlin not suicidal? |
| Posted by: Glenmore 2022-10-11 15:56 |