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Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
Insights on Russian Culture from a Finnish Intelligence Analyst
2023-01-18
Jon Gabriel is brother to Rantburg’s own ryuge, who nowadays can be seen posting on Twitter as @0ryuge on the War on Terror, the culture war, politics, and whatever else catches his eye. Jon opens with this:
[Ricochet] Russia has always befuddled Western analysts, a fact best summed up by Winston Churchill who said the multicontinental colossus is “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.” More recently, “experts” wondered why Putin was pushing forces to Ukraine’s border, then why he launched such a massive attack, and now why on earth he’s reducing cities to rubble and pushing civilians into mass graves.

Studying Russian history and culture over the past few years has given me inklings into the “Russian mind” but I’ve only scratched the surface. Thankfully, Martti J. Kari has far more insight. Kari is a former Finnish intelligence colonel and currently teaches cybersecurity at the University of Jyväskylä. (Oh, how I love Finnish names.)

In today’s “I support the current thing” social-media hot-take factory, attempting to understand one’s adversaries is equated to sympathizing with them. They won’t learn much from Professor Kari because they’re unteachable. But if you know your military history, you can be assured that Finns are not sentimental about the Bear on their border. (Full disclosure: As a Finnish American, I share this skepticism.)

I ran across a lecture Kari gave in 2018 which is the best analysis I’ve found on Russia’s attitude toward geopolitics. Unfortunately, it is in Finnish, and the English version is performed by a text-to-talk robot, making it tough going. So I’ve gathered the best bits from his hour-long talk into a readable format. It is quite long but well worth the read.

As we wonder how best to end the nightmare in Ukraine and prevent Putin from moving further west, understanding his mindset is the first step. Please note that I have slightly edited the transcript for clarity and brevity. All content belongs to Kari and any translation errors belong to me and Google. (Visit his video links and give him several likes!) Take it away, Martti…
Posted by:Slenter Panda4300

#3  A vast percentage of Russians get all their information from television. These television channels are under the control of Putin and his close associates. Therefore, Russians receive filtered information. They do not get the facts from the media.

So, kinda like American mainstream media, huh? A different point of view but the same lack of truth.
Posted by: Abu Uluque   2023-01-18 12:19  

#2  From the Polish border to Moscow, through to the Urals, is a plateau that is easy to attack with both horses and tanks. That is what has been done. Napoleon attacked, the Germans attacked, and so on. That idea is also in the genetic inheritance of the Russians, that someone is always attacking. “We will be conquered.” They have no shelter, no mountains, no rivers. There are no lakes between the east and the capital. Geographically, Russia has always been easy to conquer, which also influences their thinking.

It is true that Russia has been attacked many, many times and that kind of experience will affect one's thinking. But there is, in fact, a formidable geographic problem for would-be conquerors which is the vast distance between Moscow and anyone who is thinking about attacking. Napoleon and Hitler both learned that the hard way. In both cases, the Russian army performed extremely poorly in the opening phases of the invasion. But they persisted and ultimately prevailed. Biden should think about that. It can safely be assumed that Russians would like to maintain as much distance as possible between themselves and the hostile forces beyond their borders, especially since their military is so pathetic.
Posted by: Abu Uluque   2023-01-18 12:04  

#1   the English version is performed by a text-to-talk robot

How to dictate text to your phone and computer the easy way


Posted by: Skidmark   2023-01-18 07:00  

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