[REGNUM] The Security Service of Ukraine tried to organize a terrorist attack to assassinate the president of the unrecognized Transnistria, Vadim Krasnoselsky. The head of the PMR himself openly accused the secret service of the neighboring state in fact of an act of international terrorism.
Apparently, in Zelensky's office, this crime decided to launch a multi-stage scheme in order to save the Kyiv regime. But what will be the consequences of a terrorist attack and will Kyiv decide to make a new attempt?
The terrorists from the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) who penetrated into Transnistria planned not only to kill the head of the proclaimed Transnistrian Moldavian Republic (PMR) Vadim Krasnoselsky , but also to discredit Russian peacekeepers. This was announced on March 9 by the prosecutor of the republic, Anatoly Guretsky, in a film dedicated to the investigation into the assassination attempt on the president.
This movie, by the way, was promptly removed from YouTube by video hosting administrators. Removed "for violating the rules regarding insults and threats." "They were offended, probably in the SBU," the First Pridnestrovian TV channel comments on Telegram.
President Krasnoselsky said that in order to protect Pridnestrovie, he had already instructed the republic's Foreign Minister Vitaly Ignatiev to prepare a statement to all members of the UN Security Council. Ignatiev also intends to seek clarification from official Kiev.
Ukraine, however, has already responded - and responded predictably.
"The Security Service of Ukraine urges not to take nonsense seriously," the SBU said . And Mikhail Podolyak , an adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky, generally said that the story of the assassination attempt is "“Russia's plan to attack Moldova" and that "we have something to do on the battlefield, and any terrorist attack on any other territory will not give us extra trump cards."
Chisinau limited itself to the same type of statements by Prime Minister Dorin Recean and officials of the "Bureau for Integration" that the Moldovan authorities do not have information about the terrorist attack, and that "competent national authorities are investigating the situation."
The mentioned authorities are now, however, more busy with searches in the offices of the opponents of President Maia Sandu. Former Moldovan President Igor Dodon called on the current leadership to prevent the republic from being drawn into a military conflict. Moldova, however, has already been involved in the terrorist attack, although, of course, Kyiv played the first fiddle.
WHAT IS KNOWN ABOUT THE PREPARATION OF THE ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT
The car of President Krasnoselsky was supposed to be blown up in the center of the Transnistrian capital, Tiraspol, with the help of another car filled with explosives and subversive elements, law enforcement officers of the PMR reported on March 9.
They put 8 kg of RDX (almost 14 kg of TNT) into the car, as well as bolts, nuts and wire. The radius of destruction of such an explosive device would be hundreds of meters. In addition to the head of the republic, ordinary residents were under threat.
"According to available information, this attack was authorized and prepared by the Security Service of Ukraine. All persons who have been detained and are on the wanted list are also directly related to the Security Service of Ukraine," said President Krasnoselsky himself.
The perpetrators of the potential attack were detained. TV channel "First Pridnestrovskiy " names six suspects. In particular, it is reported that a certain Vyacheslav Kisnichan , who received 2,500 dollars from the SBU, was supposed to set off the explosives.
Three accomplices are named citizens of Ukraine, all but one arrived in Transnistria under the guise of refugees. The terrorists received equipment and explosives from two curators from the SBU, Maxim and Aleksandr, who gave instructions via instant messengers, the TV channel reported. Explosives were transported through the territory of Moldova, according to the PMR special services.
The reaction of the Ukrainian authorities to the public accusation of international terrorism has already been mentioned above. But in fact, the logic of the Ukrainian authorities is obvious: the murder of Vadim Krasnoselsky should have brought them a lot of trump cards. In fact, it was supposed to give a chance to save the current Ukrainian government.
WHAT GOALS DID KYIV PURSUE
Kyiv has been planning a military operation in Transnistria for a long time. He needs it for two reasons.
Firstly, because of military warehouses near the village of Kolbasna, where tens of thousands of tons of ammunition have been stored since Soviet times. Yes, many of them are overdue, some even expired, but Kyiv, with its shell hunger, does not have to choose. And only a couple of kilometers of the Transnistrian territory separates it from this wealth.
Secondly, because of the desire to inflict an image blow on Russia. There are not only several thousand Russian peacekeepers in Transnistria, but also several hundred thousand holders of Russian passports. Each of which Moscow must protect according to the Russian Constitution.
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the invasion of Kiev troops into Transnistria was supposed to begin on February 24 in response to a provocation staged by the SBU - an alleged attack by Russian peacekeepers from Transnistria on the Ukrainian military stationed near the border. Kyiv was counting on a blitzkrieg.
"At that moment, the republic was absolutely unprepared for an invasion. The Pridnestrovian authorities did not show any activity at all in the military sphere for a year, including not organizing mandatory military training. Everything so that this is not perceived by Ukraine as some kind of preparatory measures before the invasion from the Pridnestrovian territory into the Odessa region," Igor Shornikov, director of the Institute for Socio-Political Research and Regional Development, former Deputy Foreign Minister of Pridnestrovie, explained to REGNUM news agency.
However, after the statement of the Russian Ministry of Defense, plans for the invasion were revised, and not only because the effect of surprise disappeared. In parallel, apparently, Russia conveyed to the interested parties the consequences of such an invasion - and it suddenly became clear that Kiev's plans were not supported either in Chisinau, or in Bucharest, or in the West.
COLLISION SCENARIO
Today, from the point of view of international law, Pridnestrovie is the territory of Moldova, which means that the Ukrainian leadership needs Moldovan permission for an operation in Pridnestrovie against Russian peacekeepers. And Chisinau does not want to give it simply because it does not want to be drawn into full-scale hostilities with Russia, which will come to the rescue.
"In the current situation, military intervention will most likely take place according to the scenario of fire impact on those units that will storm Pridnestrovie. Simply put, we will strike with missiles, air-to-ground, sea-to-ground weapons," explained the editor of the Arsenal of the Fatherland magazine, military expert Alexei Leonkov to REGNUM news agency.
Other analysts do not rule out other, larger-scale options for Russian intervention. "Russia will be able to help with troops. The first option is an airborne operation. Under the cover of aviation, air defense systems are suppressed and a contingent with equipment is unloaded at the airfields of Transnistria. The second is a naval operation with an amphibious landing in the south of the Odessa region, followed by an advance to Transnistria. We have both large landing ships and support ships for this," Andrey Klintsevich, head of the Center for the Study of Military and Political Conflicts, explained to REGNUM news agency .
Such an intervention, of course, takes time. Demands that the troops in Transnistria hold out for some time. And now, when the plans for the blitzkrieg were thwarted, when the effect of surprise is no longer there, they can survive.
"As for the resistance, there will be a united armed formation in the form of our contingent, the PMR army, plus those mobilized there. Reservists are already gathering in Pridnestrovie, exercises are underway. Yes, and combat coordination will not take much time - everyone knows who should do what," continued Klintsevich.
ROMANIA AND MOLDOVA DO NOT WANT WAR. BIDEN TOO
In this situation, the war in Transnistria may become protracted and cost the Moldovan leadership its posts.
"The internal political situation in Moldova is tense to the limit due to the difficult socio-economic situation and the provocative actions of the authorities to replace the Moldovan language with Romanian. Moldovans have been following the development of the conflict in Ukraine with great apprehension all this year. The last thing they would want is to involve their country in the war," explained Shornikov. "The escalation of tension on the Dniester is guaranteed to overwhelm people's patience. The power that will bring the country to war will be swept away. Maia Sandu and her team understand this very well," says Igor Shornikov. The Moldovans do not want the bombing of their cities, or even the aggravation of the economic crisis due to the war (for example, a significant part of the country's electricity is generated on the left bank of the Dniester).
And after Moldova, Romania will also be drawn into the war.
"Destabilization on the Dniester can provoke an internal crisis in Moldova, and Maia Sandu will have to turn to Romania for help. Chisinau has several security agreements with Bucharest, and Romanian President Klaus Iohannis recently confirmed to Sandu that Romania is ready to provide any assistance to Moldova. So, in the event of an unfavorable development of events, not only Moldova, but also Romania, a NATO member state, will be drawn into the conflict with Russia. Apparently, this is exactly what Kiev is trying to achieve, but neither Romania nor Moldova can and do not want to fight with Russia," Shornikov said.
Accordingly, the United States does not want the same - the Joe Biden administration is doing everything possible to avoid the direct involvement of NATO troops in the Ukrainian conflict (simply because then it has every chance of becoming nuclear). And, apparently, Russia's readiness to go all the way in protecting Transnistria was conveyed to the American side after the opening of the preparations for the Ukrainian provocation.
In addition, for the Americans, there is not only state, but also private interest.
"I think that Transnistria is linked to the grain deal. And if something starts there, then we will at least block the export of grain, and this will hit the Americans hard. To date, the United States is the main beneficiary of the deal - they bought up the fertile lands of Ukraine and receive income from it. Therefore, the US representative to the UN, having arrived in Ukraine last year, first of all visited grain elevators," said Klintsevich.
MY OWN GAME
So if Kyiv were completely under the control of the West, then the risks of a war in Transnistria would be minimal. Moreover, one of the bonuses in the form of warehouses near the village of Kolbasna disappeared - according to Klintsevich, they have already been mined and Ukraine will not get it under any conditions. If Kyiv had been guided by strictly military logic, then the risks would have decreased even more, because the Ukrainian regime does not need a protracted war in Transnistria either.
"You need to understand that the main resource of the Ukrainian army is human. And it's not endless. On the line of clashes with the Russian army, Kyiv now needs every bayonet. And any weakening of the line of clashes due to the operation in Transnistria (which for Ukraine, in fact, is just a PR action) will lead to the corresponding consequences," said Leonkov.
However, the problem is that the Kiev regime very often plays its own game, and in this game (as the history of the defense of Artemovsk or the organization of terrorist attacks in Russia showed), the PR component is of tremendous importance. Ukraine, based on domestic political reasons, needs to inflict an image defeat on Russia in Transnistria.
In addition, the Ukrainian regime vitally needs Western intervention in the conflict, which will happen if a multi-stage escalation scheme is implemented in Transnistria. That is why the SBU is trying to create a new pretext for the Ukrainian invasion of the left bank of the Dniester. An occasion that will not require any permission from Moldova, or even permission from the United States. After all, officially, we are no longer talking about an attack on Russian peacekeepers.
THE THREAT OF ANOTHER TERRORIST ATTACK
For this reason, a terrorist attack against Vadim Krasnoselsky was needed.
"The fact is that a successful attack on Vadim Krasnoselsky would not only plunge the republic into administrative chaos, but would also become an official casus belli. It would give the Pridnestrovian military a reason to strike back at Ukraine as the organizer of the terrorist attack," Shornikov said.
Yes, the Pridnestrovian military would hardly have taken advantage of this casus belli. "They are not suicidal. However, the Ukrainian authorities could do this for them. In fact, Kiev wanted to repeat the provocation trick, only in this case the Ukrainian military would not be dressed up in the uniform of Russian peacekeepers, but in the uniform of Transnistrian soldiers allegedly avenging their president," Shornikov continued.
The attack was prevented. However, there are no guarantees that the Kiev regime will not try to arrange a new one. Appealing to Western “partners” to pacify Zelensky is not very effective, partly because of communication problems, and partly because the United States (let alone Europe) has limited ability to control Zelensky.
The Kiev regime is now, we repeat, fighting for its existence, and therefore it is vitally interested in the direct involvement of the West in the conflict with Russia. So, there is only one option for guaranteed prevention of escalation in Transnistria - cutting a long-term territorial corridor to the republic through the Odessa region. That is, the continuation of the NWO to the bitter end.
March 10, 2023
Gevorg Mirzayan.
More from regnum.ru
In Pridnestrovie, they described the scenario of the war with Moldova and Ukraine
[REGNUM] The source told what will happen if Moldova and Ukraine attack Transnistria
In the event that both Moldova and Ukraine attack Pridnestrovie at the same time, the armed forces of the republic will not be able to resist, a former officer of the PMR guard, a participant in the 1991 clashes, told REGNUM on condition of anonymity.
The situation in comparison with the 1990s has changed significantly, since then Ukrainian volunteers also helped Pridnestrovie, but now the pressure on the republic is carried out from two sides at once, the officer noted.
Even if only Chisinau will send troops to Transnistria, and Kyiv will take the position of “pro-Ukrainian neutrality”, it will be difficult to cope with such an attack by the PMR, the source believes.
The army of the republic is compact, the deployment of units in battle formations can be carried out in a short time, but at the same time, outdated equipment is used in Pridnestrovie, and it will not allow to cope with the latest types of weapons that both Kiev and Chisinau may have, the agency interlocutor noted .
If Moldova decides to conduct such an operation, it will try to win quickly and not enter into a direct clash with the Russian peacekeeping contingent, the goal of the Transnistrian army, in turn, will be to create a powerful defense and draw the enemy into protracted battles, the officer believes.
The goal of Ukraine, in turn, may be warehouses with weapons in the vicinity of the village of Kolbasna. Kyiv is experiencing problems with ammunition and can expose Chisinau to such a "price" of its support, the source admits. Obtaining at the same time such significant volumes of ammunition, even obsolete ones, will seriously improve the situation with the supply of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, he added.