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| 'Fire arc:' What is happening at the front from Kupyansk to Avdiivka |
| 2023-03-11 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. [Vesti] Experts talk about ineffective but powerful strikes by the RF Armed Forces, but what is their meaning? While the hardest battles for Bakhmut are going on, the outcome of which remains unclear, military operations on other, until recently secondary sectors of the front, are gaining importance. Firstly, near the city of Vuhledar, which is important for the Russian Federation, since it is located in the eastern part of the "land corridor" to Crimea and closes the railway logistics of the Russian Armed Forces in the region (control over the city means that Russia will close the Donbass-Azov region route, improving the supply troops). Secondly, near Avdievka, the most fortified "fortress" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Donbass, standing on a hill just 10 km from Donetsk. Thirdly, in the Liman-Kupyansk direction, where the RF Armed Forces are trying to attack in the very north of the Luhansk region. Vesti.ua analyze these potentially hot spots of the front. SHOIGU AND SOLOVYOV'S VISITS Events near Vuhledar in the Donetsk region began to accelerate last weekend, when the head of the Russian Defense Ministry, Sergei Shoigu, arrived in the war zone. There, according to Russian media reports, he held a meeting with General Rustam Muradov - it is he, judging by many testimonies, who is responsible for the Ugledar direction in the RF Armed Forces. And, accordingly, he is responsible for the failure in the attack on the city in mid-February, which Vesti.ua already wrote about in military analytics. For the failures, Muradov was subjected to heavy criticism from military bloggers associated with the Wagner PMC - they became the backdrop for Shoigu's visit. According to the American Institute for the Study of War, the visit could have had two purposes: to assess the suitability of Muradov himself, and also to consider the possibility of moving reserves to the city to resume the offensive there. "The trip did not involve the commander of the RF Armed Forces, Chief of Staff of the Russian Federation Valery Gerasimov, to whom Muradov is directly subordinate," analysts say. "This may indicate distrust of Gerasimov, who probably had to make this front-line visit himself, or at least accompany Shoigu." It should be noted that Gerasimov took up his position in early January, after Sergei Surovikin vacated the position (he was appointed Gerasimov's deputy). But in the footage from Shoigu's recent meeting with the generals, held after the trip to Ugledar, both Gerasimov and Surovikin are present, so the true positions of the "commander" of the war on the Ukrainian front are unclear. But there is another significant moment: a day later, "heavy artillery" of the Russian media, TV presenter Vladimir Solovyov, who is known for his anti-Ukrainian position, arrived near Vuhledar. He held a meeting with marines from the 155th Brigade (Pacific Fleet), the same one that had been defeated the day before by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and he himself came under fire - later, on the air, he suspected someone in the headquarters ("counterintelligence will figure it out"). Important: Solovyov himself, in the conflict between the General Staff and PMC Wagner, rather supports the head of the PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, so the trip can be considered as a media attack on the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces. ATTACK ON UGLEDAR The results of Shoigu's trip to the front became known at the beginning of the week. In a video circulated through social networks, servicemen of the 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces (created at one time for the war in Chechnya) turned to the command for additional artillery ammunition. "It is they who will replace the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet of the RF Armed Forces, which suffered a crushing defeat (in mid-February. - Auth.)," the Institute for the Study of War notes. "But it is unlikely that the 136th Brigade will be able to achieve a tactical offensive near Ugledar, which neither the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, nor the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade, nor other formations of the Russian Federation could achieve." The second signal: information about the transfer of the latest T-80 and T-72 tanks through Mariupol towards Vuhledar, as announced by Petr Andryushchenko, adviser to the mayor of the port city. "Two days ago, at least 14 of these tanks were transported through the city. The next day, we recorded about 10," he says. At the same time, the Russian Aerospace Forces began to actively use bombers. Judging by the video in social networks filmed by Ukrainian soldiers at positions in Vuhledar, at least two heavy bombs were dropped on the city (which modification is unknown). All these signals in the Defense Forces of the Taurida direction are considered insignificant against the background of the losses suffered by the RF Armed Forces in February - early March. “There can be no talk of an offensive, because the enemy suffered quite significant losses,” says Alexei Dmitrashkovsky, head of the united press center of the direction. It is known that the moral and psychological state of the military of the Russian Federation has completely fallen. As an example, Dmitrashkovsky cites the case of the commander of the 155th Naval Infantry, who, according to Ukrainian intelligence, was taken to Rostov because of his refusal to obey the orders of the command. "Also, the Steppe and Tiger units refuse to participate in hostilities. It is known about the 126th Brigade, in which 20 people wrote a refusal and said that they would rather serve time in prison than be cannon fodder (most likely, we are talking about the 136th Brigade, which is located in Ugledar. - Auth.)," Dmitrashkovsky clarifies. AVDIEVKA: AN ATTEMPT TO GO TO THE REAR Frontline Avdiivka became the second hot spot. On the night of March 8, the RF Armed Forces launched heavy artillery strikes on the city, damaging several buildings and completely destroying the entrance of a five-story residential building. Also, a powerful blow fell on the plant management of Avdiivka Coke. "They fought with the buildings of the AKHZ plant management, filled up most of the building. We managed to dig up all four victims, one of them is heavy, they are taking them to the hospital," Musa Magomedov, the people's deputy, the former general director of the plant, said in Telegram, emphasizing that only civilians were at the plant, about than the Russian military knows. On March 10, Avdiivka was again struck at least six times. "The main forces of the RF Armed Forces are concentrated in the Limansky, Kupyansky, Bakhmutsky, Avdeevsky and Shakhtyorsky directions - this is a "fiery arc," and it has already begun to stir in other directions, not only in Bakhmutsky," said military expert, reserve colonel Oleg Zhdanov. "The situation is critical ... The village of Veseloe near Avdievka has been captured, and they are trying to improve their position there. Active assaults on our positions have been going on for several days continuously, the enemy has deployed large forces there. He is also successful north of Vodyanoye." Veseloye was de facto in the "gray zone" (it overlooks Peski and the Donetsk airport), and Vodyanoye is located to the northwest of it - and to the west of Avdievka itself. If the Russian Armed Forces can build on their success by moving north, they will succeed in encircling Avdievka, which will be a very important victory for the Russian Federation from a media point of view. However, the city itself is located on a hill, and the surrounding settlements are shot from above. "Important: the enemy continues to hold the initiative along the entire "arc of fire" - from Kupyansk to Ugledar. For them, the capture of Ugledar and Maryinka is the main task, we must not forget about this, and taking Avdievka into the ring is the main thing, because if it is captured, will become an automatically ready springboard on the front line, while the enemy is making incredible efforts there." The intensity of the attacks is as dense as possible. "They are just throwing corpses at our territory," says Vitaliy Barabash, head of the Avdievka city military administration. “They have enormous losses in equipment, they fight with tanks and armored personnel carriers of the 1950s, but this does not affect the intensity of the work of their artillery and aviation." It is Avdievka that receives the most intense fire from the air, including high-explosive bombs: there are videos on social networks with planes flying over the city, and in the very center there is an unexploded M62 FAB-500 bomb (such Russian Armed Forces used in Izyum, Kharkov, Sumy). STRATEGICALLY IMPORTANT KUPYANSK Finally, in the north of the "fiery arc," in the Kupyansko-Limansky direction, the RF Armed Forces activated a couple of weeks ago. "There are no hostilities on the territory of the Kharkiv region today. But the enemy is covering with artillery fire the settlements that are adjacent to the front line,” said Serhiy Cherevaty, speaker of the eastern group of troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine." At the moment, hostilities are taking place much south of Kupyansk and east of the Liman. "In fact, the fighting is now taking place in the forests of Kremennaya, near Makiivka and Ploshchanka (villages in the Lugansk region north of Kremennaya, on the border with the Kharkov region. – Auth.) There the enemy has a partial success, moving into the depths of our defense," he says Oleg Zhdanov. Kupyansk itself, liberated by the Armed Forces of Ukraine last fall during the defeat of the defense lines of the RF Armed Forces in the Kharkiv region, is also important from the point of view of logistics - on its territory and near Kupyansk there is a large railway hub, strategically important (it was there, for example, that the RF Armed Forces stored ammunition, transported by rail). And today the city itself and its suburbs are subjected to heavy shelling. The situation there is so complicated that local authorities announced the evacuation of children and people with limited mobility in early March. "It is extremely important for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to ensure a serious advance in this area in order to further secure the movement of their troops, which will implement Putin's main mission - to take control of the entire territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions by the end of March," military expert Vladislav Seleznev explained the strategic importance of the direction. |
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| #1 JDAMs in use. |
| Posted by: Slavising Unineting5672 2023-03-11 01:01 |