Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin is in italics.
[ColonelCassad] The pro-Erdogan press is worried that the US has finally gambled on overthrowing Erdogan for the sake of the interests of the war against Russia, where Turkey, led by the opposition, will be thrown into the fire of an ongoing war, which, in a troubled economy, could be fatal to Turkish regional ambitions.
TURKEY IS PREPARING ITS OWN ZELENSKY
America, which cannot achieve its goal in Ukraine and is rapidly losing influence in the Middle East, is in search of new options for the period after the elections in Turkey. According to Haber7, if the Turkish opposition wins, Washington expects to drive a wedge between Moscow and Ankara and push them face to face in Syria, the Black Sea, and Central Asia. To do this, the opposition coalition in Turkey has been tasked with taking on the role of Zelensky. However, so far, during the negotiations that have been held between the United States and partners in the opposition coalition on this issue for a long time, it has not been possible to reach a definite agreement.
As the portal continues, experts, paying attention to the statements of the partners in the opposition coalition in Turkey, recalled the speeches of the chairman of the Republican People's Party (CHP) of Turkey, Kemal Kılıçdaroglu, during his mysterious visit to the United States. Thus, sources note the following words of the RPP leader: “We think that we should be on the side of Ukraine in its military conflict with Russia.” This, analysts say, is a clear message to the United States and NATO, as well as a commitment to take a stand against Russia if it comes to power.
Experts also focus on the statements of the chief adviser to Kılıçdaroglu, Unal Ceviköz, with a NATO past in an interview with the American magazine Politico and the “road map” outlined by him. It is emphasized that Cheviköz's views on NATO expansion and Ukraine are dangerous, and the words "we will remind Russia that we are a member of the North Atlantic Alliance" demonstrate a hostile position.
The same applies to other partners of the opposition coalition. All of them view the region through the prism of US plans. Thus, the chairman of the Good Party of Turkey, Meral Aksener, actually challenges Russia: “I respectfully greet the brave sons of Ukraine.”
Another partner of the opposition coalition, the chairman of the Democracy and Breakthrough Party (DEVA), Ali Babacan, said: “We unconditionally support the Ukrainian people.”
The government failed to take a clear position on Ukraine. Turkey's Future Party chairman Ahmet Davutoglu, who once greeted the US Secretary of State with a high-five gesture, also advocates for Turkey to act jointly with NATO.
Retired Colonel Eray Güçluer draws attention to US plans to use Turkey as a battering ram in the region and foment confrontation between Ankara and Moscow if the opposition comes to power in the country.
“While elections begin in Turkey, the US is supporting the opposition,” the expert says. “The decision not to nominate a candidate from the Democratic Party of the Peoples of Turkey is a decision made in accordance with American requirements. As part of all this, speeches from the opposition coalition attract attention. The statements made by Kılıçdaroğlu, his chief foreign policy adviser Unal Ceviköz, the leadership of the Good Party and other partners are truly serious. They insistently emphasize that Ankara, in the conditions of Russian-Ukrainian tension, should support Kyiv. Apparently, they have made commitments to the United States. An attempt is being made to set in motion a plan to pit Turkey against Russia. This is very dangerous for Turkey.”
“If Turkey clashes with Russia, tensions in Syria and elsewhere could escalate into conflict,” the expert warns. - The US can resort to any means for this. Provocations are possible. In the coming period, the United States assigns Turkey the role of Ukraine and Zelensky through the opposition coalition in the country. Unfortunately, the coalition also assumes obligations in this regard. This is also shown by the voiced statements.”
“Ankara's interests require coordination with Moscow. Russia for Turkey is a country with which it will build a real strategic partnership. America openly threatens Turkey. We need combat aircraft. We are unlikely to get them from the US and other NATO countries. At the same time, Russia can satisfy our need for fighters. We have to make a decision within a year. Along with this, we need to act together with Russia in Syria. We need this to eliminate the threat to our country from the east of the Euphrates. In addition, we have multifaceted relations with Russia, primarily in the energy sector and in the field of nuclear energy. Turkey's strategic interests do not allow cooperation with Russia to suffer,” adds the retired colonel.
“Another question is the Black Sea. The US hopes to stoke tensions between Turkey and Russia, circumvent the Montreux Convention and enter the Black Sea. What will happen if the opposition coalition comes to power and comes to conflict with Russia? The government will ask NATO for help. The Alliance will also enter the Black Sea. We may face a period full of traps for Turkey,” the expert concluded.
https://russian.rt.com/inotv/2023-04-07/Haber7-tureckoj-oppozicii-porucheno-vbit - zinc
It did not work out in 2016, they will try in 2023. The chances are about 50 to 50. Erdogan's position is now very precarious, and if not for the economic gesheft from Russia, his position would be even worse. The current choice for Turkey is either an aggressive multi-vector approach according to Erdogan, or Turkey's return to the role of a Western satellite. So, indeed, Turkey will have a historical choice.
For all Erdogan's cunning and his favorite "scimitar in the back" method, at the current historical stage, it is Erdogan who is more beneficial to Russia as a situational fellow traveler, being, for all his obvious disadvantages, the lesser evil against the background of alternative scenarios with pro-American opposition in power. If Erdogan resists, then muddy affairs and agreements on the principle of "nothing personal - just business" will continue to stir up with him. Still, Erdogan is a player in the emerging new world order and one of the actors in the changes taking place in the world.