[YouTube] The much expected Ukrainian 2023 counteroffensive (sequel to the well known trilogy in 2022 "Kyiv" "Kharkiv" & "Kherson") has, alongside Bakhmut, been a major topic of speculation and discussion for months now. As a topic it is so heavily debated that there isn't even agreement over whether or not it has started, is yet to start, or will never start at all. For the most part, while some preparations are obvious, Ukraine has succeeded in keeping its actual plans secret, and even a leak of classified American documents did little to definitively answer the question of where and when Kyiv is likely to strike to attempt to reclaim the initiative after Russia's Winter and early Spring efforts.
By popular request, today we take a chance to look at how we got to this point - how have both sides prepared for the offensive to come, what military actions are presaging it, and what it might mean for the war over the next few months.
CAVEATS & COMMENTS:
A few main comments for this video (as well as all the usual caveats which have been previously advanced).
1- explaining what has happened in UA is hard enough, predicting battlefield developments (when so much key data, especially around force-status is classified) is extremely difficult. As a result, note that I have deliberately refrained from many definitive predictions.
2- Reporting on allegedly leaked US documents is based entirely off content that has been published openly in media sources
3- It is expected the content of this video will be rapidly outdated, such is the nature of the fluid environment and steady flow of new information
4- I mess up the designation of the S-125 by adding an unnecessary "a"