Text taken from the V Kontakte page of Holy Rus'.
by Daniil Ivaschenko
The West is alarmed, Kyiv is in a panic. Terrible mercenaries from Wagner PMC are moving to the "last dictator of Europe". The results of their "streltsy rebellion" look very strange, and the main "orchestrant" hints in his TG channels at some plans that "love silence."
Streltsy rebellion is a reference to a rebellion against Russian emperor Peter the Great in 1698.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, according to rumors, has already been seen in Moscow and St. Petersburg, and the fighters themselves "savage" migrate to Belarus. They go in "civilian", in a simple way. How to calculate how many of them have already appeared there, how many more will appear? In a peaceful regime, the fighters cannot be distinguished from tourists or, in general, evaders from possible mobilization, fleeing to Belarus.
And now the heads of the young democracies with their Kyiv counterpart, as well as the analysts of the Old and New Worlds in unison, begin to worry that it is very convenient to go to Kyiv just through Belarus.
Western analysts promptly launched a version about the transfer of PMC "Wagner" for a second trip to Kyiv. And if you think about it, the idea of ​​attacking, if not Kyiv, then at least the Sumy and Chernihiv regions, from which we regrouped last year, is not without logic.
Let's remember how it was. At that time, it was not possible to promptly resolve the issue with Kiev, while significant enemy forces were withdrawn to the Donbass. At the first stage of the special operation, we stretched the flanks, exposed the rear and, as a result, allowed ourselves to be deceived during the deal in Istanbul, having made a "goodwill gesture." That is, the withdrawal of Russian troops from the Kyiv, Sumy and Chernihiv regions.
Now no agreements hold us back: both Kyiv and its Western masters flatly refuse to sit down with Russia at the negotiating table. And they strongly suspect that to cover up the transfer of the Wagner to Belarus, this whole story with the "mutiny" was started.
The idea looks wild. If Moscow wanted to deploy any troops anywhere, it could simply do so. As a little earlier, without asking anyone, she transferred nuclear weapons to the same Belarus. But the main thing is that the "streltsy rebellion" was too bloody for presentation. Unless, of course, the tragedy was the result of some terrible accident.
But, let's say, such a plan existed and was implemented for a long time.
After the withdrawal from Kyiv, the regular army "straightened" the front line by regrouping from Izyum and Kharkov. She built powerful fortified areas in the Kherson and Zaporozhye directions. Conducted a partial mobilization, trained hundreds of thousands of new fighters, increased the number.
And when the "musicians" completed their bloody concert, a conflict broke out (or was played out) between the Ministry of Defense and the PMC, as a result of which the "defeated" side went under the wing of Lukashenko - almost a personal friend of Zhenya. And do not find fault, after all: the rebels stigmatized by Moscow will train the military personnel of Belarus. Which is not going on any campaigns, Minsk is just nervous about the concentration of NATO troops near its western borders.
How many Wagnerians does our brotherly country need to feel safe? We recall: going on a campaign against Moscow, Prigozhin himself declared that there were "25,000 of them, and another 25,000 are expected in tactical reserve." And after the end of the "streltsy rebellion" he shouted that only a few percent of the fighters would agree to sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense.
This means that tens of thousands of "musicians" can follow the leader. To Belarus. Who will keep all these wonderful people there and why? The budget of Belarus is unlikely to pull such an item of expenditure. Maybe the expenses will be covered by those who carried them before, that is, Russia? Which this combat-ready army will not be superfluous at the front.
You can recall other words of Prigogine, said even before the turmoil:
We rest and prepare. On June 5, we left, on August 5, according to forecasts, PMC "Wagner" in full combat readiness will be able to carry out the combat missions that have been set.
But what if the tasks are still standing? Just in August, "musicians" will go from Belarus to perform them?
Military expert, political scientist Alexander Artamonov admitted that such a scenario is not excluded. Strategically, the campaign of the Wagnerites from Belarus could at least pull significant forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from today's line of contact. Facilitating the tasks of the Russian Armed Forces in Kherson, Zaporozhye and other areas.
The West sees this in its nightmares right now. They fully consider such a danger to them. And they got it right. Because a strike on Kiev is theoretically possible, - the expert expressed his opinion.
Artamonov assumes that everything will be arranged as the PMC's own initiative. Under which both Putin and Lukashenko will seem to have nothing to do with it. And only later will the presidents support the "musicians" in their version of the "Azov seat".
What can Lukashenko do if the Wagnerites suddenly move across the Belarusian-Ukrainian border? And what if some border outpost is disarmed at the same time? Formally, he will not bear any responsibility for anything. And Belarus will not become a participant in the conflict. Such a scenario is possible. And he is objectively good,- Artamonov praised the idea.
A retired military expert, Colonel Anatoly Matviychuk, is sure that the Wagnerites in Belarus will not be left without work.
Prigogine created a well-functioning commercial enterprise. Its main activity is the performance of security and combat functions. In Russia, he now has no contract, he has one in Syria, Central Africa. He relocated to Belarus, I think new agreements will be concluded there too, - the expert suggested. And he added:
"This is one of the most combat-ready military groups in the world. And if they start hostilities against Ukraine, then Ukraine will not find it a little."
Matviychuk does not even hypothetically believe that Lukashenko will join the performance of the Russian PMC in any format. Unless, of course, the Zelensky regime itself provokes him to this by attacking the territory of Belarus...
"Plans love silence." Photos of Prigozhin with such an inscription appeared in the Telegram channels controlled by him.
The results of the "March of Justice" are really strange. Western conspiracy theorists can be understood. Why was the criminal case on the armed rebellion simply taken and closed? And what, is it possible?
Why did Lukashenka fly in to reconcile the parties, to whom Russia had previously issued nuclear weapons? What is he going to support the mercenaries for? Russia, as we now know, they cost a pretty penny.
How did the president, who had already survived a riot in his country, dare to take in such an unpredictable team?
In general, the concerns of the West are understandable. Are they justified? As they say, August will show...