Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin:
[ColonelCassad] Today it’s a little funny to see bewilderment from reports of a meeting between Putin and Prigozhin, they say, how is it that he called Prigozhin a rebel, and then meets with him.
1. From a legal point of view, Prigozhin is no longer a rebel, since the criminal case on the fact of the rebellion was closed, and no new ones were opened. Accordingly, the state has no new formalized legal claims against Prigozhin or so far (interviews of witnesses and the study of materials on the facts of the death of pilots continue). Therefore, there are no legal barriers to such meetings.
2. From a political and historical point of view, the fact of the rebellion has not gone away, and in the history books they will write about Prigozhin's rebellion on June 23-24. But from a political point of view, the meeting between Putin and Prigozhin is desirable to close many issues that were not discussed during the agreements on June 24 with the participation of Lukashenka and Bortnikov, where Prigozhin was given general security guarantees, but there were questions about the future of Wagner PMC, Prigozhin’s business and his personal affairs.
It turned out that the state in a number of issues was very dependent on Prigozhin’s structures and their simultaneous destruction would lead to serious damage from the state, therefore, the formats of work with Prigozhin’s structures are being revised, which allows the state to gently replace Prigozhin’s structures in a number of areas, and Prigozhin to keep part of the business .
3. Putin, after the events of June 23-24, solves the problem of minimizing the consequences of what happened, avoiding scenarios that are obviously disastrous for the state with concessions to the rebels or mass bloodshed in Rostov and in the Moscow region.
Of all the available options at that time, the least detrimental to the common cause was chosen, when the losses were minimized (although no one would return the dead pilots), the threat of a rebellion was removed, and the state retained the ability to use the personnel of the Wagner PMC in its own interests, but on different terms. Hence the dissatisfaction of those who did not wait for the mixing of Wagner with the National Guard in Rostov and the Moscow region. Of the options available at that time, this was the most acceptable, which required various compromises within the framework of political expediency.
4. Therefore, PMC "Wagner" is not liquidated, but restructured, which I wrote about on June 25th. For the same reasons, Prigozhin moves freely around the country, he will keep part of his business in Russia, and his weapons and money have been returned to him. And at the same time, he is subjected to obstruction in the state media (in order to bring down the level of popularity of Prigozhin and the Wagner PMC among the masses, which is raised to a great height again by the efforts of the state media), the Patriot media holding is taken away from him (in fact, they are liquidated, depriving most of media opportunities in domestic politics and nullify Prigozhin’s political ambitions) and some contracts, including fat contracts with the Ministry of Defense.
5. Gerasimov and Shoigu will not be fired under pressure, and even if Putin decides to make reshuffles at the top for some reason, they will be done only when it does not look like the reshuffles are due to Prigozhin's rebellion. I do not remember cases when Putin fired someone under pressure from outside. Therefore, Shoigu and Gerasimov demonstratively appear in the media, which demonstrates that no reshuffles are planned now and they continue to fulfill their duties. There are still some questions about the future of Surovikin, but I think everything will be fine with him.
I think that General Surovkin is currently in Putin's doghouse, but he continues his duties, and will emerge before too long.
6. Part of the Wagner personnel will leave for Belarus, part will go on a contract with the Ministry of Defense, part will leave. The process is already underway. Heavy weapons will be handed over according to the inventory to the Ministry of Defense, which provided the very weapons of the Wagner PMC. All money matters regarding fighters and their families will be closed. The return of cash to Prigozhin is aimed, among other things, at paying off planned payments to Wagner soldiers and commanders.
In general, there is a planned "damage control". The fact that Putin's meeting with Prigozhin was a surprise for many only speaks of the cost of many "insiders" regarding the leadership's strategy to overcome the consequences of Prigozhin's rebellion.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/91764 - zinc
PS. Toward the end of this week and next week there will be more news on the future of Wagner PMC, including in connection with Belarus and Africa.
More from Boris Rozhin:
On June 29, Putin met with Prigozhin
[ColonelCassad] On June 29, Putin met with Prigozhin and the commanders of the Wagner PMC detachments. There were 35 people in total. We were engaged in debriefing on June 23-24.
1. At the meeting, Putin assessed the actions of the PMC "Wagner" in the course of the JMD and on June 24;
2. The President listened to the explanations of the commanders and offered them further employment and application of their skills;
3. The commanders themselves presented their version of what happened and emphasized that they are staunch supporters and soldiers of the head of state and are ready to continue to fight for the Motherland;
4. The meeting lasted 3 hours.
PS. This is official information from the Kremlin.
Yesterday there was already a leak about this meeting, which was allegedly also attended by the head of the Russian Guard, Zolotov, and the director of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Naryshkin.
Apparently, Peskov's comment about the fact and content of the communication is aimed at stopping rumors about this meeting.