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| Parts of Ukraine and a Scandinavian couple: what the NATO summit in Vilnius will do |
| 2023-07-11 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Gevorg Mirzayan [REGNUM] On July 11-12, the center of European politics will shift to Vilnius, where the next summit of the North Atlantic Alliance will be held. The preparation of the final act, which should be signed as a result, is already nearing completion, assured the representative of the "host country", Lithuanian Ambassador to NATO Deividas Matulionis . But - as observers believe - surprises are also quite possible on the three main topics of the summit: Ukraine, Sweden and plans for an Atlantic military bloc in Asia. On the last, second day of the summit, the arrival of Volodymyr Zelensky is expected (who, of course, is waiting for clarity on the issue of NATO's prospects for Ukraine), and in Stockholm they are waiting for the same clarity on the admission of Sweden to the alliance. The country is "more than ready to become one of the 32 allies," TASS quoted Swedish Prime Minister Olof Kristersson as saying on July 10 . UKRAINE - PARTIALLY FAIL Regarding the format of relations between Ukraine and the alliance, a number of Western experts put forward an interesting formula - the so-called partial acceptance. That is, to put it simply, NATO guarantees will apply only to part of the country's territories - those that it controls. “Theoretically, partial acceptance is quite possible when guarantees are given only to those territories that are controlled by the government of the country. According to a similar scenario, France was accepted into the alliance at one time - guarantees applied only to European territories, but not to colonies, ” Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, a researcher at IMEMO RAS, told IA Regnum. For Russia, such a scenario would be the most negative, because it would deprive Moscow of freedom of action, the expert emphasizes. After all, in this case, attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, attempts to hit rear camps in the same Lvov, as well as the creation of a sanitary zone due to the liberation of other Ukrainian territories from the Kiev regime (for example, Odessa and Kharkov) could mean for Russia a direct war with NATO. Fortunately, this scenario seems extremely unlikely. Yes, France was accepted without colonies, but then, against the backdrop of the already inevitable completion of the decolonization process, everyone had a clear understanding that conditional Algeria was not going to occupy French territory. Georgia could have been accepted without South Ossetia and Abkhazia, but then there was a clear understanding that Moscow was not planning to seize Tbilisi, Kutaisi or even Gori. In the case of Ukraine, the West does not have such guarantees - Vladimir Putin indicated his readiness to create a sanitary zone, but did not indicate its borders. The Russian leader did not say whether it would pass along the Dnieper or along the Vinnitsa-Zhytomyr line. Moreover, the West understands that the desire to create a sanitary zone is not some kind of opportunistic policy or demanding demand, but, in general, a reflection of Russia's national interest. Therefore, they are not in a hurry to accept Ukraine in parts. “This topic is not seriously discussed. Perhaps they will discuss it next year, but it all depends on how the conflict develops,” Officers-Belsky notes. Actually, the alliance makes it clear that they will include Ukraine only if it (or rather, it and the West) wins over Russia. “The main focus should be in ensuring the victory of Ukraine. And this is a precondition for any meaningful discussion about Ukraine's membership," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said earlier . As part of this focus, in particular, a new package of assistance to Ukraine will be adopted, a mechanism for the Kiev regime's access to the latest European weapons, as well as the Ukraine-NATO Council will be created, which will enable Ukraine to convene Council meetings if necessary. For Moscow, this option may be a kind of lesser evil, but still evil. “Most likely, Ukraine will be given new types of weapons, and they will quickly fire. We must be ready for this,” Vadim Trukhachev , associate professor at the Russian State Humanitarian University , explains to IA Regnum. For the Kyiv regime, this is a minimal boon, since it cannot count on more. Well, for the Europeans - another weakening in favor of the Americans. “The fundamental difference is that if earlier Europeans took out old weapons from their storerooms and this indirectly contributed to the renewal of these stocks, now we will talk about scooping out what is created by the industry of the member countries of the alliance,” Officers-Belsky notes. “And in the end, when there is nothing left of Ukraine, there will be nothing left of the European stockpiles of weapons.” SWEDEN AND THE TURKISH ENDGAME The second block of questions, as mentioned above, is Swedish. Exactly a year ago, Sweden (together with Finland) signed a protocol on joining NATO, but Turkey has not yet ratified this protocol with respect to Stockholm. Before flying to the NATO summit, Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan set conditions for ratification. First, membership in the European Union. “The European Union has kept us waiting at the door for 50 years. Let the EU open the way for us, and we will open the way for Sweden to join NATO , ” the Turkish leader was quoted as saying by the Turkish Agenda telegram channel. Secondly, the supply of F16. “About the F-16, they say that this should be decided by the US Congress. We also have a parliament. The process of Sweden's accession to NATO requires its consent," Erdogan hinted. And if the requirement for the F-16 is quite understandable, then linking Sweden's entry into NATO with Turkey's entry into the EU looks strange. “Türkiye needs investments in order to improve the situation with the economy. In addition, Turkey needs American F16 aircraft, which the States refuse to sell to the Turks. However, the EU is about politics, economics and, most importantly, the worldview, - Turkologist Yashar Niyazbaev explains to IA Regnum. “Turkey does not meet these requirements, Erdogan knows this, but still makes joining the European Union a condition for Sweden to join NATO.” It is possible, of course, that this is one of the elements of bargaining and Erdogan can remove this requirement. But no one has any guarantees that even following the results of the auction, Sweden will join. Especially after the Swedish authorities defiantly do not prevent their activists from burning the Koran , thereby insulting not only Recep Erdogan, but the entire Turkish population. Ignore the opinion of which President Erdogan cannot even after the elections. However, it is possible that what is happening now around Sweden is part of a big game. Its endgame is that Erdogan gets a reputation as a fighter for Islamic values, and the United States - the entry of the country that they needed. That is, not Sweden, but Finland. “In general, I have a suspicion that all the participation of Sweden in this story was necessary in order to draw Finland into the alliance. The Finns categorically refused to enter without the Swedes. The Swedes seemed to nominally enter, but now that the gate has closed, they can say that the Turks are to blame for everything , ”Belsky notes. THE PACIFIC OCEAN IN THE SIGHT OF THE ATLANTIC BLOCK Finally, the third block is the alliance's plans for East Asia. “A new topic will be discussed - the expansion of the alliance's zone of responsibility beyond the North Atlantic. However, NATO has already waged war in Afghanistan. Now the United States is trying to draw the NATO countries into its confrontation with China, for which, for example, the creation of an alliance office in Japan was discussed , ” Officerov-Belsky notes. It would seem that the United States has some success in this direction. Thus, in the recently released German National Security Strategy, China was positioned as a competitor and rival. However, positioning does not mean a willingness to take some action. A series of visits by EU leaders and the leadership of the European Commission to Beijing shows that Europeans value the economic partnership with Beijing. Therefore, the Europeans are trying to develop a formula in which they will be outside the US-China conflict. Even Eastern European NATO partners are not ready to get involved in a conflict with China. They do not feel any historical fear of the PRC (as they do with regard to Russia), and do not consider participation in the US-Chinese confrontation as the settling of some historical scores. Therefore, the US can only rely on a few NATO members, in particular the UK. For London, participation in the US-China conflict is a tool to restore its influence in East Asia, even if in the role of American Tobacco. In fact, the most predictable solution to such a publicized summit will be the solution of not a global, but a bureaucratic problem - the extension of the term of office of the current Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. “Now there is no figure equal to Stoltenberg in terms of experience and status. In addition, in recent decades, the rule has been established that NATO secretaries general change in five-year periods - in years ending in 4 and 9, - Vadim Trukhachev notes. - There is an option when the newly dismissed Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte , the most influential and status of all candidates, will be prepared for the general secretaries. But he must have time to get in on the action. So Stoltenberg will most likely stay for another year.” A lot can happen this year, experts emphasize. |
| Posted by:badanov |
| #3 Don't worry, Volya. You can keep your doctor... |
| Posted by: M. Murcek 2023-07-11 14:30 |
| #2 NATO Looks to ‘Israel Style’ Relationship With Ukraine, Rejecting Full Membership… For Now Zelensky's unhappy reaction: It’s unprecedented and absurd when time frame is not set neither for the invitation nor for Ukraine’s membership… It seems there is no readiness neither to invite Ukraine to NATO nor to make it a member of the Alliance. Poor guy should have known better than to believe the likes of John McCain, Lindsey Graham and Joe Biden. |
| Posted by: Abu Uluque 2023-07-11 13:33 |