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| Time is running out for the US: Washington has 'a few months' left | |
| 2023-07-25 | |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Irina Alksnis [RIA] Yesterday, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken stated that the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is not rosy for Kiev and the West, which, according to him, "is going very hard," since "the Russians have created a powerful defense." However, he expressed optimism about Ukraine's prospects at the front, while acknowledging that "it won't be over in the next week or two." According to him, Washington expects "for several months." Here a natural question arises: what will happen and what to expect if (or rather, when) the hopes of the Americans for the success of the Armed Forces of Ukraine finally collapse? The question is all the more relevant, since Blinken is far from the first to speak of "several months." At the recent NATO summit in Vilnius , different people also made some veiled, and sometimes direct statements that Kiev has a maximum autumn to demonstrate at least some results and return on Western investments in it. A fairly popular answer to this question is the opinion that even if the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine fails completely, this will not fundamentally affect the position of the West, which has made its main bet in Ukraine in the war against Russia. However, adherents of this point of view, while assessing NATO's main anti-Russian card with absolute accuracy, are mistaken in another, much more important aspect. It may seem insulting, but Russia is not at all the main direction of the application of geopolitical efforts for the United States. This is China , which is directly written in all foreign policy and military-political strategies of Washington. Moreover, this is not a trick or some kind of smoke screen, but a reinforced concrete reality that the Americans are forced to deal with. Geopolitics is always based on the economy, the struggle for markets, resources, technological leadership, and so on. China, which has become the first (or second, depending on the method of calculation) economy in the world,
Another thing is that the American strategists reasoned absolutely correctly: as long as China's back is covered by Moscow , which will actively help it in the confrontation with the West, the chances of coping with Beijing are not very high. That is why the first blow was dealt to us. The idea was brilliant in its simplicity and beauty: in almost any outcome, Russia would somehow get bogged down in Ukraine. And at least a dozen of these outcomes were calculated for our country - from catastrophic (with military defeat and the collapse of statehood) to seemingly triumphant (with taking control of the entire territory of Ukraine - with the need to feed it, which, of course, would turn into a heavy burden for the economy). In any case, Russia would have been forced to focus on solving internal problems; it simply would not have the strength and resources left for an active foreign policy. Well, a bare rear would make China much more vulnerable in a direct confrontation with the United States and its allies. However, Moscow managed to pass between Scylla and Charybdis and set such a format for the conflict that now you can’t immediately tell who is more bogged down in Ukraine - Russia or the West. Of course, one can discuss and argue what are the chances of our country to resist NATO in a long war of attrition. But the alliance, or rather the United States, is running out of the most important "ingredient" of such a conflict - time. It ends with them, and very quickly. In the yard is not the nineties and not even zero. Americans can no longer afford to act in the format of decades and even years. The bill has been going on for months. The processes of the disintegration of their hegemony and the building of alternative international structures not controlled by the States have accelerated critically. The degradation of the Western economy and political influence is proceeding with such acceleration that it is visible to the naked eye. China is preparing at full speed for the inevitable - because the very logic of the historical process leads to this - a clash with the West and uses any hour of delay to "pump skills" (well, to actively dump its investments in the American public debt). Thus, every month, week, and even day of military-political concentration on a secondary - from a strategic point of view - Ukrainian direction worsens for the United States their prospects on their main, Chinese, front. Now the Americans are desperately trying to bargain for their precious time - it is no coincidence that high-ranking visitors have been drawn to Beijing in a string (the last, but hardly the last in this series was Henry Kissinger at the end of last week). However, this cannot fundamentally change anything - soon the States will have to make a decision to withdraw from the Ukrainian project. They do not have the resources to participate in two large-scale conflicts, and they simply cannot afford to leave China alone, since by doing so they are guaranteed to doom themselves to geopolitical collapse. Without a doubt, the Americans will try to leave Ukraine in such a way as to provide Russia with the maximum number of problems and, as far as possible, save face. But focusing on the Asian theater of operations is vital for them. They only have a few months left to do this. | |
| Posted by:badanov |
| #1 McCarthy has effectively funded the Ukrainian project through Jan 2025. The Pentagon has a magic unicorn that will poop out Ukraine funding until Inauguration Day. It would be adventurous to have a good exorcist on standby for Lindsey Graham that afternoon. |
| Posted by: Super Hose 2023-07-25 07:38 |