by Aleksandr Kots
[KP] KYIV SLAMMED THE "GRAIN DEAL" ITSELF
No matter how paradoxical it may sound, but with the terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge, Kyiv, first of all, for us, burns the bridges of returning to the “grain deal.” Because Ukraine, in fact, does not need it. Kyiv does not need the Russian navy to control ships that leave or enter Odessa.
Zelensky, on the contrary, would like to have shipping that is not controlled by Russia, in which he could, on the one hand, earn money on grain trade, and on the other hand, import weapons and military equipment into his ports.
Attempts to continue shipping bypassing Russia will be necessary. Kyiv is generally prone to such provocations. You can remember how, under Poroshenko, they tried to break through the Kerch Strait on three military boats, they were detained. And how then they were going to launch another convoy, inviting international observers.
Attacks on port infrastructure are the only correct line of conduct that our military machine can now have. We must, by any means, stop the threat of the importation of military equipment by sea to Ukraine.
But the “grain corridor” is not the only sea route to Ukraine. She has ports on the Danube - Izmail and Reni. And you can reach them without entering the territorial waters of Ukraine, from Romania. During the operation of the “grain deal”, the cargo flow through these facilities was much higher than through the Black Sea corridor. Therefore, we will have to pay attention to these two objects - the first strikes on Reni were already delivered on Monday night.
Ukraine directly threatens shipping in our territorial waters. And this threat must be responded to very harshly. To deprive Ukraine of the opportunity to enter the Black Sea in any way whatsoever in order to deliver some kind of blows.
Because today it is important for them, first of all, to make Crimea an island, and they will continue to try to cut all our logistics chains to the peninsula. Now Kyiv is stuck in its "counteroffensive" largely thanks to our artillery. And it is important for them to disrupt the supply of ammunition to the front lines of the Zaporozhye Front, in the first place. Hence the attempts to cut off the Crimea.
"COUNTERADVANCE REVERSED
Let's take a look at the front line.
- Butting in the area of the Antonovsky bridge, which is not yet of a strategic nature.
- In the area of the Kakhovskoye reservoir (Vasilyevsky direction), the Armed Forces of Ukraine both stomped around Pyatikhatki and are stomping. They changed tactics, they no longer drive in tank wedges, now 20-30 people enter on foot and stay there forever.
- The Orekhovskoye direction - endless battles in the Rabotino area, there is no serious progress there.
- Vremievsky ledge - as the battles around Urozhaynovo went on, so they go.
- Artemovsk direction. They tried and even managed to take one of the strategic defensive positions west of Kleshcheevka, but they were kicked out of there, we control the heights, they failed to take fire control over Artemovsk. And in the Soledar area, the enemy generally switched to mining his positions in front of him. This means that they are apparently not going to advance further on the northern flank of Bakhmut.
- I'm not talking about the Svatovsky border - from Kremennaya to the border with the Belgorod region. In the Krasnolimansky direction, we are pressing, and we are pressing seriously, the battles are already underway near the settlement of Torskoye. This is half way to Krasny Liman. Near Kupyansk, our units have already come within line of sight to the city. The Ministry of Defense recently issued a report, according to which in a day we were able to go deep into the front one kilometer and expand it (that is, expand the bridgehead) by two kilometers. There is information about the breakthrough of the front near Svatovo, where our units have advanced 6 kilometers forward and expanded the bridgehead by 10 kilometers. That's a huge distance for what we call "active defense." Ukraine does not move at such distances in a day.
GRINDING STORM BRIGADES
What does it all say? The fact that Ukraine is using its reserves very irrationally. And now there is a real battle of reserves, and in this battle, I have a complete feeling that we are outplaying the enemy. They are forced to divert reserves from their potentially main line of attack - to Melitopol and Berdyansk to the Crimea - to Artemovsk, to Krasny Liman, to Kupyansk. And even, in connection with the changed situation in Belarus, they are obliged to transfer some brigades to the north.
Ukraine tried to find some kind of gap in our defense so that we could pull our reserves to it. But it turns out that with our reserves, which, it turns out, we had, outplayed the enemy, strengthened those areas where we found weakness, and began to push through them. I am talking now about the Krasnolimansk and Kupyansk directions.
Where are these brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which were trained as assault brigades, which were supposed to break through our defenses and go further, towards the Sea of Azov and Crimea? Where are all these forces? And now they have been dragged away along the entire front line, and they are slowly grinding up in Zaporozhye, and near Artemovsk, and near Kupyansk and Krasny Liman.
If it goes on like this, maybe we still have to hold out for a month or a month and a half, and then everything may start to take shape for Ukraine, not very well. By autumn, a certain turning point may come, during which the Russian army will go on a counteroffensive.
FRACTURE
There is another important point - psychological. On the one hand, our troops, successfully defending themselves, increase their morale. This is very important when a fighter feels that he can win, when he has a sports hunting passion.
And at the same time, if we look at Ukraine, then everything should not be very good with their motivation there now. Because there are no successes, the losses are huge, they seize mobilizants on the streets, in cafes, on the beaches, push them three days later to the front line and, of course, the political and moral state of people there is getting worse and worse. And the further, the worse it will be. As soon as this breakdown in the brain finally appears, when the enemy’s will to win is suppressed by our will to win, then, it seems to me, just the turning point should come. Together with prepared reserves and equipment supplied by our defense industry.