[Korrespondent] Authoritative American analysts published an article in Time magazine , where they analyzed in detail the Ukrainian counteroffensive and tried to predict its results. In particular, Karolina Hird and Ekaterina Stepanenko, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, along with Frederick Kagan, an expert at the American Enterprise Institute, reported that on July 26 the Armed Forces of Ukraine began the main phase of their offensive campaign.
According to experts, attacks by the Ukrainian military are likely to alternate between periods of notable tactical progress, long pauses and some setbacks.
At the same time, American analysts hope that the road to the Sea of Azov will simply open up for Ukrainian forces, but with heavy fighting and high losses.
THREE SCENARIOS
Experts are convinced that in the current offensive actions, the victory of Ukraine can have three different options.
First, as noted in the article, the current mechanized breakthrough of the Defense Forces can be successful, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine will make it to such a depth that it will destroy part or even all of the Russian defense lines.
Second, Russian troops, already suffering from serious morale and other systemic problems, could crack under pressure and retreat in a controlled or panicked manner, the analysts add.
Third, constant pressure and a massive offensive campaign could create gaps in Russia's defense lines, which Ukrainian forces can exploit first in isolated places and then for deeper breakthroughs.
The first and second options are unlikely, but possible, and the third scenario is the most likely path to Ukrainian success, American experts add. Also, the last option will be slower than the other two, and not as fast as desired in the West. At the same time, the third scenario depends on the help of Kyiv's allies, analysts say.
In addition, the slow pace of Ukraine's attacks, which it used until July 26, is designed to minimize losses. They are primarily focused not on exhausting the Russians, but rather on steadily pushing them out of prepared defensive positions so that the Ukrainians can use them to achieve operational success.
It is this tactic, as noted in the article, that was used in both the Kherson and Kharkov campaigns.
"This is still a war of maneuver, not a war of attrition - just at a slower pace," the analysts add.
PROBLEMS OF OCCUPIERS
A number of problems for the Russians add to the confidence of the success of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The biggest problem for the occupiers is logistics: the Russians must protect the long land line of communication (GLOC), consisting of roads and railways, that stretches from Rostov-on-Don on the northeast coast of the Sea of Azov to the Crimea.
Tens of thousands of Russian troops in southern Ukraine are in need of massive amounts of food, fuel, ammunition, personnel and other supplies, which must be transported by road and rail.
This state of affairs is very beneficial for Ukraine, experts say. At a minimum, the Ukrainians can pull up artillery to the GLOC and further aggravate the situation of the Russians, and as a maximum, reach somewhere as far as the Sea of Azov and generally cut off the land logistics of the invaders.
"In other words, it is enough for Ukrainians to capture and hold only one sector for Russia to lose the ability to control almost the entire territory to the west of the strike direction. Russia must win everywhere," the authors conclude.
The second problem of the enemy is the lack of operational or strategic reserves. Reserves are free forces capable of responding to the development of the situation in the combat space.
"The Russian occupiers are getting tired - and complain about it publicly," analysts say.
THE DANGER OF FAILURE OF THE OFFENSIVE
Ukraine has sent the bulk of the forces it has prepared for counter-offensive operations, although it is not clear what proportion of these forces are now actively involved in hostilities, the article says.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine still retain the initiative and enjoy many advantages, but their counteroffensive may fail, experts emphasize.
According to them, the Russians may be more resilient than they seem. In particular, this concerns the defense of the occupiers.
Another reason for the failure, analysts say, is that the West may not have time to provide Ukraine with the necessary equipment and support in a timely manner.
“While Ukraine still has a serious prospect of freeing strategically important territories, which it does, the task of the West is to provide Kiev with what it needs to succeed,” the experts conclude.