by Sergey Adamov
[REGNUM] Early next year, NATO plans to hold its biggest military exercise in Europe since the Cold War. According to the Financial Times , a record number of troops are planned to be involved in the maneuvers, which are called Steadfast Defender. The participation of 41,000 military personnel, from 500 to 700 aircraft and more than 50 warships is expected. The exercise will involve contingents from 32 states, including (for the first time) Finland and Sweden, whose application to join the alliance has not yet been ratified.
The exercises will take place in Germany, Poland and the Baltic countries in February and March 2024. According to the scenario, NATO will practice “repelling a Russian invasion” in one of the alliance member states. When planning operations, real geographic data will be taken into account to create more realistic combat scenarios.
The upcoming maneuvers will be “part of a new training strategy under which the military alliance will conduct two major exercises each year instead of one,” the FT reports. NATO countries plan to work out cooperation in new conditions and fundamentally new approaches to planning strategy and tactics.
The exercises are part of a review of NATO’s global strategy, the publication explains. The alliance abandons the tactics of using limited military contingents (an example of which were operations in Iraq and Afghanistan) and begins to practice the actions of large formations with the participation of heavy armored vehicles, aviation and large-caliber artillery.
The change in NATO's approaches to combat planning occurred under the influence of the military conflict in Ukraine, where Western strategy showed its worst side.
UKRAINE IS IN THE “ZERO ECHELON”
Military expert, reserve tank forces officer Alexander Mikhailovsky, in a commentary to IA Regnum , suggested what kind of situation NATO would try to simulate.
“A conditional “invasion” is taking place on the territory of Poland. However, it faces serious resistance. HIMARS systems destroy the rear of the advancing enemy, and fifth-generation F-35 fighters seize air supremacy, the expert believes. — The next stage of the exercises - an armored fist from Abrams and K2 tanks invades enemy territory and completes its “defeat.”
Particular attention will be paid to increasing firepower and conducting counter-battery warfare using Korean-made K9 self-propelled artillery systems, which the Polish army is actively purchasing.
“In fact, this is a bell that rings for our soul,” the expert notes. It turns out this situation: there is a first echelon of NATO, which is now actively militarizing. These are Poland, Finland, and Ukraine, which has joined them.
“And let’s add the Baltics,” continues the expert. “Their alliance can throw them into battle at the forefront of any aggression. Because, as we understand, any “invasion” on our part is a chimera, they are preparing for an offensive war.”
The second echelon is the developed countries of Europe: Germany, France, Great Britain, Mikhailovsky points out. “They are not eager to fight, and Russia is far from them, but if the States press them, they will not go anywhere. And only behind them appears the American contingent, which by this moment has completed the transfer of large forces across the Atlantic,” the expert noted.
In a broad sense, such a strategy does not provide for any significant contribution from Ukraine, which can be withdrawn from the conflict before it enters the main phase, the interlocutor noted. The only role that the Ukrainian Armed Forces can play is to draw the attention of the “imaginary enemy” and give NATO time to prepare for military action.
In any case, the alliance plans to reconsider the role of individual states, which should be “at the forefront” of the confrontation with Russia, the military expert pointed out. Hence the special attention to the training grounds of the Baltic States and Poland and the inclusion of Finland and Sweden. Speaking about a change in the alliance's strategy, it is necessary to pay attention to what is happening with the armies of our closest neighbors.
POLES ARE CHANGING FROM WHEELS TO TRACKS
“When it became clear that the tactics of “small contingents” a la Yugoslavia or Iraq did not work, NATO began pumping up some of its countries with heavy weapons. The most obvious example is Poland, which is now actively militarizing,” Mikhailovsky pointed out. While the military-industrial complex of European countries is primarily arming Ukraine, Poland is actively purchasing weapons from South Korea and the United States, the expert recalled. “Slowly but surely, the Polish army is transforming into a kind of striking fist, which will be assigned a special role in the new NATO strategy,” Mikhailovsky noted.
The expert listed: Poland plans to receive 1 thousand Korean K2 tanks and 150 American Abrams tanks in the most modern modification M1A2 SEPv3. In addition, Warsaw plans to receive 500 HIMARS rocket systems by 2025. Most of the new equipment will go into service with the newly formed military units deployed in the east of the country.
“Actually, here we also see a revision of NATO’s strategy. Instead of wheeled armored personnel carriers, which were riveted in the thousands under Iraq, tanks are now being ordered on a mass scale,” Mikhailovsky noted. In Ukraine, everyone saw why this is important, the expert pointed out
The situation is similar with artillery. The entire first half of 2022 was marked by the failure of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in terms of firepower. “ Then we found a lifesaver in the form of “Hymars.” We tested dozens of them and decided to purchase hundreds. There was a “debut” in Ukraine, the equipment showed its best qualities. Now quality is also multiplied by quantity,” the expert added.
FINNS ACQUIRE DAVID'S SLINGS
Russia’s other neighbor, Finland, has also taken a course towards militarization, and the general line of the alliance can be judged by the military purchases of the Finns (as well as by the re-equipment of the Polish army).
In 2022, the newest NATO member sharply increased military spending, notes IA Regnum’s interlocutor . Moreover, most of the spending goes on new weapons. Finland, like Poland, relies on purchases in countries that are “farther away” from Ukraine - the USA and Israel. For the first time, Israeli David's Sling missile defense systems, which are considered a much more accurate and modern analogue of the American Patriot systems, will be deployed near the borders of Russia.
In addition to purchasing new weapons, Finland will also provide its territory for new US Army bases. According to the Helsinki newspaper Iltalehti , Washington plans to station military aircraft at the Finnish Air Force base in the city of Rovaniemi, located near the Arctic Circle, 200 km from the border with Russia.
Thus, NATO seeks to embrace Russia from the south, southwest, northwest and north at once.
NATO IS REARMING - THE UKRAINIAN ARMED FORCES ARE REARMING
Although Ukraine remains outside the brackets of military exercises, at the same time it plays an important role for NATO as a testing ground for testing not only new tactics, but also new weapons, Mikhailovsky notes.
“Such a concentration of forces in Eastern Europe cannot but concern Ukraine. But here the connection is not direct, but rather inverse, ” the expert argues. — That is, the Polish Abrams will not go straight from the exercises to Zaporozhye. But as the alliance is being re-equipped with new models, weapons are being released that are waiting for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.”
The Pentagon is driving the Ukrainian Armed Forces into a new offensive
The aviation of NATO countries is switching to the F-35 - and this means that a stock of obsolete fighters of earlier models is appearing; the alliance's tankers are switching to Abrams - old tanks are being freed up, etc., Mikhailovsky explained. According to him, “an inverse relationship is formed here: the more actively the NATO bloc rearms with modern equipment, the more opportunities there are to transfer everything else to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.”
“If, as a result of the exercises, there is a need to develop new models of heavy armored vehicles, then the existing Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, as well as wheeled armored vehicles a la Maxx Pro or Caugar, will be considered obsolete and will go to “junior partners,” the expert predicts .
TECHNIQUE FOR COUNTERACTION
The only adequate response to the deployment of additional NATO forces should not be entering into another “arms race,” but a qualitative strengthening of the Armed Forces with a simultaneous gradual increase in personnel, experts believe.
“Actually, both Sergei Shoigu and the leaders of the defense department spoke about this,” Mikhailovsky noted. He recalled that the formation of new military units is already underway - in particular, in Karelia, near the Finnish border.
“Artillery battalions of special power are being formed, because the Ukrainian conflict showed that our 152 caliber is inferior in places to 155 mm,” a military expert gave an example.
In addition, the further we go, the more obvious it is that further work is needed on the creation of our guided artillery ammunition, adds Mikhailovsky.
“First of all, to nullify Poland’s deployment of Haymars and other artillery weapons,” the expert shared his opinion. He listed the weapons that our army urgently needs: we need high-precision MLRS "Tornado-S" with appropriate ammunition, we need self-propelled guns "Malka" of 207 mm caliber "in quantity."
“Then the strategy being developed by NATO, where the emphasis is on increasing firepower, will not work,” Mikhailovsky concluded.