Daily Evacuation Brief | September 23, 2023
[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS
- TALIBAN MAY BE PLANNING A CRACKDOWN ON THE TTP TO APPEASE PAKISTAN – The recent high-level dialogue between Pakistan and the Taliban regime in Kabul appears to have borne some fruit for Pakistan. Pakistan’s special envoy for Afghanistan, Asif Durrani, traveled to Kabul for discussions over various matters but security was clearly at the top of his list. Durani released some details of the negotiations with AMU TV and said that Taliban officials appear to now understand the importance his country has placed on halting any possible incursions from Afghanistan of TTP militants. While he did not elaborate, he did say that the Taliban intends to take concrete steps to eliminate the threat posed to Pakistan. He also announced an intention to form a standing Pakistan/Afghanistan committee that would be the main vehicle for handling disputes between the two countries where the joint border is concerned. Several temporary committees have previously been formed to handle certain situations but this new proposed body may have greater authority and more permanence than previous iterations. For their part, the Taliban will have to walk carefully as it clearly has sympathy with the TTP’s goals and most estimates put the number of armed TTP fighters in Pakistan around 5,000. Rumors and source-based information had indicated the TTP leadership was becoming disillusioned with the Taliban’s support for their cause and some leaders believed they were being sacrificed in the interests of better regional relations.
- THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK WILL PROVIDE $400M IN HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE FUNDING – The Bank has already approved the amount and will add it to $149M in approved funds from the European Union in order to shore up aid operations in the country. The United Nations has long warned that donors have not followed through on promised commitments to provide aid and it is facing a massive shortfall in funding for the country. The additional funding is expected to buoy humanitarian support operations throughout the coming winter months.
- TALIBAN WORKING ON A CONSTITUTION – The Chief Justice, Abdul Hakim Haqqani has been charged with writing a new constitution for the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and a spokesman for the Taliban claims he is finalizing details about the advisory committee that will help draft the governing document. There are not many who believe the constitution will be ratified in any type of democratic process but will be imposed on the population. Many have theorized the constitution will enshrine the bans against women’s education/work and say the deliberative process is being delayed until after some form of recognition is achieved. The question of elections has been absent in most of the international discussions about Afghanistan. Typically, in nations where a non-democratic transfer of power takes place, elections are a dominant topic. Perhaps international negotiators deem the topic premature and have chosen to discuss it after some of the more egregious policies have been moderated.
NEXT 24 HOURS
IRANIAN POLICE ENFORCING NEW HIJAB LAW – Some reports out of Iran suggest that over 500 women have been arrested for violations of the Hijab law. A source in Tehran said that orders had come down late on Wednesday night from the Ministry of the Interior to ‘make an example’ of women who may be flaunting the law. Police and militia were advised verbally to do so in public spaces for maximum effect. The majority of the arrests have taken place in Tehran and near University campuses. At-risk Afghans in Iran are advised to observe the law so as not to draw unwanted attention to themselves. With the announcement of the passage of the stricter new Hijab laws recently, it appears likely that security forces will prioritize enforcement over the coming days.
Daily Evacuation Brief | September 22, 2023
[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS
- AFGHAN WRITER FOUND DEAD IN GERMANY – Mohammad Dawood Siawash’s body was found after being reported missing for three days in Germany. German authorities have begun an investigation but it is not clear yet what may have caused his death. Siawash’s family believe he was murdered and many others among the Afghan diaspora in Germany have called on the authorities to look for potential Taliban sympathizers living in the country.
- ISLAMABAD HIGH COURT WEIGHS IN ON TREATMENT OF AFGHAN REFUGEES – The court has asked the government to develop a system for Afghan refugees to voluntarily report upon arrival to the country. The High Court also issued an order prohibiting the detention of any refugee who has registered with the United Nations High Commission for Refugees. In a twenty-one-page ruling, the High Court reiterated that Pakistan’s constitution grants the right of asylum. A very important point in the ruling concerns the ability of the Ministry of the Interior to issue exit permits which will enable travel to a country that has granted asylum. Many refugees have been forced to pay exorbitant fines when departing Pakistan.
- AFGHAN EMBASSY IN ISLAMABAD SAYS IT IS READY TO BEGIN ISSUING PASSPORTS – The Consul General for the Embassy announced yesterday that the Embassy now had everything in place to begin issuing passports. Those who want to apply are encouraged to visit the online application portal and then wait for their appointment to visit the Embassy.
- IRAN APPROVES NEW HIJAB LEGISLATION, PAVES WAY FOR IMPRISONMENT AND/OR INCREASED FINES – The bill has been debated for several months but was finally passed yesterday in Tehran. The new law will be implemented for a 3-year period in order to evaluate its feasibility. As previously reported, the law will increase fines, allow for imprisonment, ban travel, exclude from education, and a host of other penalties. The law also contains a provision aimed at those leading protests against the regime by allowing for a 5-10-year prison sentence for anyone encouraging groups to violate the dress code. Legal opinions have already lambasted the new laws as unconstitutional but the overwhelming support for it in Parlament means it will be unlikely to be challenged.
- GERMAN OPPOSITION PARTIES PLAN TO CALL FOR HALT TO AFGHAN ADMISSIONS PROGRAM – The two largest opposition parties are expected to call for a halt to the current admission program and scale back the acceptance of Afghan refugees to ‘only those who have worked for the German government’. It is not clear if the parties have enough support to actually cancel the program which had established the goal of accepting 1,000 refugees per month.
CONFLICT TRACKER
Kabul: An attack by an unidentified Resistance group in the 17th Police District of Kabul reportedly claimed the lives of 3 Taliban fighters while wounding an additional 3 yesterday evening.
NEXT 24 HOURS
RUMORS THE TALIBAN MAY BE TARGETING HAZARAS IN BAMYAN PROVINCE – Several photos and reports appeared on social media over the last twenty-four hours that showed what looks like deep trenches that have been excavated along roadways and around the town. The reports say the barriers were made to block Hazaras from entering or leaving the villages. This information has not yet been confirmed but seems to be a fairly extreme method of impeding travel and may suggest that further action is planned. There has been no explanation for the actions or what may have caused local Taliban leaders to take such drastic measures.