[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS- RUMORS OF POSSIBLE TTP EXODUS – Reports are beginning to surface on select analysis sites that a large TTP incursion of Pakistan may take place in the coming days. There are reports from two of the border Provinces in Afghanistan of trucks assembling in at least five different villages. A source in Kabul said that TTP leaders were being ‘encouraged’ to depart Afghanistan to lower tensions with Pakistan (and take the pressure off of Kabul). It was not clear who communicated this message to the TTP leadership in Afghanistan and this information has not been confirmed. Social media sites sympathetic to the TTP in Pakistan have been hinting that more TTP fighters would be returning to Pakistan over the last four days.
- THE UNITED NATIONS CONCERNED ABOUT FORCED REPATRIATION PLANS IN PAKISTAN – An anonymous UN official spoke with journalists and said the body is deeply concerned about the recent remarks made by the caretaker PM in Islamabad about repatriating foreigners who are in the country illegally. Officials from the UN are in discussions with the government in Islamabad and are seeking to clarify the remarks. The United Nations High Commission for Refugees in Pakistan was quick to thank Pakistan for its generosity in dealing with multiple displacement events but also warned that it expected Pakistan to only repatriate those who agree to return voluntarily.
- BRITISH TOURIST, MILES ROUTLEDGE, RESURFACES ON SOCIAL MEDIA – The young British student who made headlines for traveling to Afghanistan in 2022 is now reputedly passing updates through a friend on X (formerly Twitter). The most recent updates attributed to Routledge say he is living a luxurious life and is even considering investing in a gold mining operation. Routledge’s family told journalists they have no idea if their son is safe or is being treated well. They also said that Britain’s Foreign Office had not yet contacted them about their son.
- AFGHAN EMBASSY IN INDIA MAY BE CLOSING – The diplomatic ruckus over who runs the Embassy of Afghanistan in India has heated up again. An email purportedly sent from the Embassy’s email servers was sent to the Government of India and announced the Embassy would be closing operations. Indian authorities were investigating the validity of the message and attempting to contact the Ambassador, Farid Mamundzay (who is in London). The Ambassador found himself embroiled in a coup when a deputy claimed that Kabul had put him in charge. Ambassador Mamundzay disputed the claims while he was in London and India appeared to have let the matter work itself out.
CONFLICT TRACKER
Kunar: ISIS-K militants reportedly attacked an unidentified Taliban position in the province. Eye witnesses said that 1 Taliban fighter was killed in the exchange of fire.
NEXT 24 HOURS
A THREAT OF A TTP INCURSION INTO KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA IS CIRCULATING – At this point, the threat is mainly rumor but seems logical considering recent statements made by officials in both Islamabad and Kabul. Estimates vary substantially over how many armed TTP fighters remain in Afghanistan. Early estimates (April 2022) put the figure at 5,000 while more recent estimates suggest it may be closer to 2,000. The tension along the border has been running high and Pakistan’s security forces are on high alert. Any incursion by the TTP in sizable numbers is likely to invite violence on a scale that has not been witnessed on this border since the Taliban took power in Kabul. Non-combatants could easily be caught up in the fighting. At-risk Afghans should avoid the border region if at all possible for the time being. If reports arrive that an action is underway, we will issue an ALERT message with as much information as we can gather. Otherwise, we are hoping this is only a rumor and doesn’t come to pass.