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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| Palestinian gambit. Who plays the Middle Eastern kings |
| 2023-10-13 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Gevorg Mirzayan [REGNUM] The Israel Defense Forces' (IDF) planned ground operation in the Gaza Strip, which is to begin after the ongoing carpet bombing phase, could literally change the face of the Middle East. From this point of view, perhaps the most discussed issue is the degree of Iranian participation in the “flood of Al-Aqsa” (as Hamas designated its operation) - participation both in the Palestinian group’s attack on Israel itself, and in the further escalation of the conflict. The topic of exactly what dividends the Islamic Republic will receive from changes in the Middle East remains debatable - and the fact that the region will change after the current war is more than obvious. Opinions in expert circles and in the press can be divided into three main versions. The first is that the conflict was orchestrated by Iran and the Palestinians find themselves as bargaining pawns in Tehran’s gambit combination. The second is that the conflict is directed against Iran. The third version is that the whole world is witnessing a situation where a pawn has taken hostage not even two, but three kings. Iran is behind the conflict This first version was perhaps the dominant one at the very beginning of the conflict. The main arguments were, firstly, the extremely high level of military-political cooperation between Gaza and Tehran - so high that Iran could not have been unaware of the impending attack. “We have said from the beginning that Iran is still broadly complicit in this attack because it provided significant funding for Hamas militants,” said Joe Biden's national security adviser Jake Sullivan. “Iran taught, Iran provided opportunities.” Moreover, according to some experts, Iran not only provided the opportunity, but also planned the attack. This, in particular, explains the complete failure of Israeli intelligence, which was unable to uncover the preparations for the attack. According to American media estimates, the attack had been planned for many months. It is alleged that Ismail Qaani (commander of the Quds Force of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) held biweekly meetings in Beirut with representatives of Hamas, Islamic Jihad, banned in Russia, and the pro-Iranian Shiite group Hezbollah. This version is also supported by the benefits that Iran received from the Hamas attack on Israel. Firstly, the Iranians (if, of course, they actually took part in the attack) publicly saved their face. In recent years, Israeli intelligence services have killed a lot of Iranian officers, as well as nuclear physicists. Organized a number of cyber attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. Iranian convoys and bases in Syria were bombed. Tehran defiantly did not respond in any way (since launching missiles from Gaza or Lebanon towards Israel cannot be considered answers). Consequently, Iran's leadership appeared weak, both in the eyes of its citizens and in the eyes of neighboring countries. Now he answered. And - this is secondly - Iran has already demonstrated the weakness of Israel. The catastrophic failure of the Mossad, the many killed and captured IDF soldiers, including officers and generals, and the civilians driven into Gaza - all this showed Israel's enemies that the state is not so strong, not so invincible. This means you can fight against it. You can join the de facto Iranian-led “Axis of Resistance.” Thirdly, Iran, according to a number of experts, has broken the alliance emerging against it in the form of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Israel. By provoking the war in Gaza, the Iranians made the same Saudi-Iranian rapprochement impossible. All these arguments, of course, are very strong - however, in recent days, the position of experts has begun to change. Conflict against Iran More and more analysts are starting to say that Iran may have nothing to do with it. And now The New York Times is publishing an article stating: “ According to preliminary intelligence data, Hamas’s actions came as a surprise to the Iranian leadership.” Of course, this position of the New York Times (and the American leadership, which is in no hurry to accuse Iran of direct participation - only of “ complicity in a broad sense ”) is explained by the reluctance of the United States to enter into a direct war with Iran. However, there are other arguments in favor of the version of non-involvement. Firstly, the Islamic Republic did not need to destroy the Israeli-Saudi-Turkish alliance with the war in Gaza - after all, Tehran had already done this without a war. “Tehran has recently achieved success in the diplomatic field. Through the mediation of China, an agreement was reached with Saudi Arabia. And even with the Americans, with whom relations are bad, there have been some improvements, for example, in terms of unfreezing some of the Iranian assets in South Korea in exchange for fuel supplies,” Elena, an international political scientist and expert at the Russian International Affairs Council, listed in a commentary to IA Regnum Suponina . Another evidence of contacts between Tehran and Washington was a deal to release people with American citizenship who were in American prisons on charges of espionage, the expert notes. But now the conflict between Gaza and Israel begins - and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen no longer excludes the possibility of a reverse freeze of $6 billion in Iranian assets - if Tehran’s involvement in the Hamas attack is proven. Iran obviously does not win. Secondly, the conflict in Gaza could lead to Iran being included in full-scale hostilities against Israel and against the United States - and not because of its alleged participation in planning the conflict. The fact is that at a certain stage, Hezbollah, a group that is essentially a subsidiary of Iran, may intervene in the confrontation. “The Lebanese organization Hezbollah often makes decisions independently. However, in such a serious issue, everything will be resolved in coordination with Tehran - after all, relations are very close. And now consultations will be very difficult, full of disputes ,” Suponina suggests. The decision on how deeply to get involved in this conflict has not yet been made. Much will depend on the extent to which the situation in the Gaza Strip worsens. If as a result of missile and bomb strikes and a ground operation there are many casualties, then Hezbollah simply cannot help but intervene - otherwise its leaders will face political death, Suponina believes. Hezbollah has up to hundreds of thousands of fighters under arms, many modern missiles - and to fend off this threat, the Americans will have to intervene in the conflict. And Iran (due to its patronage of Hezbollah) will not remain aloof from this conflict. But who benefits from such a scenario is Israel. It was the current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who for a long time tried to drag the United States into a war against Iran. “ For Netanyahu, what happened was a chance to push through his long-standing idea that Iran needs to be rocked. Literally bleed him dry, deprive him of developments in the field of nuclear weapons,” Suponina points out. As former US Assistant Secretary of State for the Near East David Schenker writes , the Hamas attack showed the fallacy of Israel's policy of containing Iran. Recently, the Israelis considered nuclear weapons to be the biggest threat posed by the ayatollahs, while underestimating the degree of danger of Hamas and Hezbollah. However, it was not a matter of underestimation, but the unpreparedness of Israeli society for a full-scale war against Hamas, as well as the reluctance of the Americans to enter into a war against Iran. Now, after the bloody attack by Hamas militants, the Israelis are ready to fight, and the Americans may have to fight. This has already given rise to a number of conspiracy theories to explain the Mossad's bizarre failure. They say that Netanyahu and his associates knew about the impending attack and did nothing on purpose. Pawn game However, there is another version of what happened. Behind the Hamas attack is... Hamas. “The extent of Iran's control over Hamas has been greatly exaggerated. Hamas often acts independently - due to geographical and many other reasons,” Suponina points out. And with this seemingly suicidal attack, the leaders of the Palestinian movement were solving a number of their problems. The fact is that the group was not doing very well in Gaza. Public opinion polls conducted over the summer showed that the blockade by Israel, the inability of Hamas to govern the territory of Gaza and the lack of any prospects led to the fact that residents of the strip began to gradually lean towards cooperation with Tel Aviv. 62% of residents opposed Hamas's war with Israel. Half of the surveyed residents of Gaza and other cities in the strip believed that the group should abandon the thesis “Israel must be destroyed” and join the negotiation process based on the principle of creating two states for two peoples. More than half generally believed that Hamas should give control of the sector to the leader of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas (the de jure leader of all Palestinian territories, who de facto “rules” only in the West Bank of Jordan). At the same time, according to a survey conducted in July 2022, 34% of Gazans viewed the process of normalizing Israel’s relations with Arab countries positively (and only 39% had a negative attitude towards it). In the same Arab countries, the reputation of Hamas was falling - amid the normalization of relations with Israel, the group was considered too radical. And now the radical Islamist movement has made a move that changes everything. First, Hamas militants have become heroes. Now (against the backdrop of massive bombings) the Arab rulers can no longer help but support the group. Otherwise, they risk coming into conflict with the Arab street. Secondly, the carpet bombing of Gaza sharply embittered the local residents - most likely, not a trace remained of pacifist sentiments. Thirdly, Hamas could provoke a major war involving Iran, the United States and Israel - and therefore realize its dream of destroying the Israeli state. Thus, the pawn can play three kings and change the entire Middle East. |
| Posted by:badanov |
| #3 ^It would seem that, as TW said, the West Bank/FATAH bureau and the Lebanon/Hezbollah Shin Bet bureaus did their jobs. Was the Gaza/HAMAS Bureau so busy distracted about Netanyahu that they could not discern that this was a 'Big One' and not the the endemic plots and schemes? Of course Iran/HAMAS could have been unusually competent this time --that's why the enemy is called 'the enemy' because they too get a vote in how things turn out. |
| Posted by: magpie 2023-10-13 18:08 |
| #2 I suspect this is a second attempt by Iran at catching Israel in a pincer between the West Bank and Gaza, with Hezbollah’s vaunted 150,000 missiles coming in over the Lebanese border for emphasis' and Iran’s army as a distant overseeing threat to remind Israel that her job is to surrender. And just like last time, Hezbollah baulked, the West Bank’s plots were spiked by extensive IDF raids removing their men and materiél, leaving Gaza to rise up all on its own — and reap the pleasures of concentrated IDF attention all on its own as well. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2023-10-13 05:22 |
| #1 The first is that the conflict was orchestrated by Iran and the Palestinians find themselves as bargaining pawns in Tehran’s gambit combination. I believe that the following applies. (a) The attack was organized by Iran. Years of preparation, technical complexity, the combination with a massive rocket attack - all point to IRGC. (b) Iran was surprised I believe that they planned is to take huge number of Israeli hostages. The inevitable surrender of Israeli Government would be a smarting defeat for Israel and yield substantial benefits to Iran. However, they underestimated Gazan blood lust (even the west bank Palestinians consider Gazans to be savages). (c) In recent years, Israeli intelligence services have killed a lot of Iranian officers, as well as nuclear physicists. Organized a number of cyber attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. Iranian convoys and bases in Syria were bombed. That's nothing compared what'll happen to Iran in near future. |
| Posted by: Grom the Reflective 2023-10-13 03:35 |