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| Ukrainian Armed Forces are expecting a shell famine: American shells will go to Israel |
| 2023-10-22 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Artemy Sharapov [REGNUM] The aggravation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, into which other countries are gradually being drawn, is beginning to affect Ukraine. When planning the supply of military aid, the United States and European countries are forced to make a choice between Ukraine and Israel. With the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East, a number of experts predicted a gradual reduction in aid supplies to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but there seems to be no reason for this. In his address to US citizens, President Joe Biden said that both countries need American military assistance. The President intends to ask Congress for $100 billion in military aid to Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel. Most of the amount (61 billion) is intended to support Kyiv. Israel should receive 14 billion in aid. It may seem that the Ukrainian authorities have nothing to worry about: assistance from the West will not only not decrease, but will increase. However, the devil is in the details. The upcoming IDF ground operation in the Gaza Strip requires increasingly more resources, which only the United States can urgently provide. Also, the IDF command fears the expansion of the conflict and the entry into it of groups operating in Lebanon and Syria. In connection with the upcoming operation of the Israeli army, the Pentagon plans to transfer tens of thousands of 155-mm artillery shells that were intended for Ukraine from reserve stocks of the US Army, Axios reports, citing informed sources. The US government suggests that the redirection of shells will not have an immediate impact on the combat readiness of Ukrainian troops. However, if the Palestinian conflict drags on for a long time, Kyiv will have to urgently change approaches to planning military operations. After Russian troops destroyed most of the Soviet-style military equipment and artillery, 155 mm guns are the backbone of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' combat support. A decrease in the supply of ammunition may in the future leave Ukrainian troops without firepower, says military expert, reserve tank forces officer Alexander Mikhailovsky. The 155-mm guns include the American M777 howitzers used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, M109, PzH 2000, Caesar, Archer and AS-90 self-propelled artillery guns. Ukrainian troops still use “Soviet” caliber 122mm and 152mm guns, but their numbers are steadily declining. “What the Bolsheviks talked about happened. Reorienting itself militarily to the West, Kyiv gradually became dependent on foreign aid supplies in almost all areas. And now it directly depends on Washington whether they will be able to conduct military operations ,” the expert believes. At the same time, Israel's demands seem fair. At the beginning of 2023, the Pentagon asked the Israeli authorities to open ammunition depots stored in the country in case of a sharp escalation of the military conflict. De facto, the arsenals belong to the United States, but according to an agreement between the governments of the two countries, in the event of a large-scale military conflict, Israel can use the reserves to arm reservists. At Washington’s request, tens of thousands of 155-mm shells were removed from warehouses, which were subsequently transferred to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It is noteworthy that the United States convinced its Israeli allies that there would be no aggravation of the situation in the Middle East in the near future. And if it does happen, help will not be long in coming. And now Israel has recalled the favor it has done and requested compensation, leaving the United States with a difficult choice. In the short term, US actions will not have a significant impact on the course of hostilities, but in the long term, Ukrainian troops may face a shell famine. “First they will have to cut the daily consumption rate of ammunition, then introduce a rate of ammunition consumption per gun. Now they have a certain supply, but in a month or two, the situation may change ,” says Alexander Mikhailovsky. The expert recalled that the United States is the largest producer of 155-mm shells, therefore the Ukrainian Armed Forces primarily depend on American supplies. Of course, European manufacturers can cover part of the deficit. There are enterprises producing 155-mm shells in the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Great Britain, Spain and the Scandinavian countries, which produce ammunition through joint efforts. According to experts, enterprises in Britain, France and Scandinavia jointly produce 20 to 30 thousand shells per year. The German defense giant Rheinmetall, which has several factories throughout Europe and beyond, produces 75-100 thousand shells per year. Spanish enterprises can produce the same amount. For comparison: American enterprises produce around 60 thousand shells per month, and in the foreseeable future they plan to produce 100 thousand 155-mm shells per month. In August 2023, the Pentagon announced that it had supplied Ukraine with three million missiles and shells since the beginning of the conflict. Over the same period, EU countries transferred 223,800 ammunition of various types to Kyiv, and this figure also includes “Soviet”-style shells. That is, the production capacities of the EU and the US are simply not comparable. It is also necessary to take into account that European manufacturers are busy replenishing the arsenals of EU countries, which were fairly empty after previous deliveries of the APU. Some of the ammunition is needed by European armies for regular exercises; shells are also supplied under contracts to countries in Africa, Asia and South America. It is possible that as the conflict in the Middle East intensifies, Israel will also need European ammunition. Theoretically, the United States could involve South Korea, Japan and a number of other countries in the supply of ammunition for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And in this way, foreign partners will be able to meet the needs of the Ukrainian army in 8-10 thousand shells per day. However, if hostilities intensify, European manufacturers will no longer cope with the growing needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. We should not forget about logistical problems, as well as attacks by the Russian army on the rear arsenals of the Ukrainian army. Therefore, Ukrainian artillerymen will have to “tighten their belts.” “If we remember the First World War, then it was the “shell famine” that became the scourge of our army at the first stage. There were shells, but in such quantity that the artillery could not conduct a counter-battery fight. In the realities of the Ukrainian conflict, where artillery plays a key role, the Russian army can gain a serious advantage ,” the expert believes. If the United States “redirects” ammunition supplies to Israel, Ukraine may be left without 155-mm Exalibur projectiles guided to the target using the GPS system. If European manufacturers can still provide “ordinary” high-explosive fragmentation shells, then we will have to forget about guided ammunition. The situation is similar with the M549A1 extended-range active-missile projectiles, which are produced only by the United States. According to experts, before a full-scale “shell famine” begins, it may take from one to three months, depending on the level of intensity of hostilities. If active hostilities begin in Gaza by spring, the Ukrainian Armed Forces may be left “on a starvation diet,” which, in turn, will open up opportunities for a new Russian offensive. |
| Posted by:badanov |