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| 'Fear of bankruptcy.' The US is not ready for war with Iran |
| 2023-10-29 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Gevorg Mirzayan [REGNUM] On the evening of October 27, a sharp escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict occurred in the Gaza Strip. The world's media is full of photographs of powerful explosions and evidence that the most intense shelling of Palestinian territory since the beginning of the month is currently taking place. Israel calls what is happening an “expansion of the operation,” the spokesman for the Defense Forces (IDF) avoids the definition of “ground invasion,” but, according to many observers, this is exactly what it looks like. The scale and intensity of the ground operation cannot be determined at the moment, since the enclave is almost completely isolated. There is no light, no electricity, no communications in Gaza. Regardless of the events of a particular day, the Middle East is most definitely sliding into a major war. The American-Iranian war, which could begin if a ground operation begins. With intermediate stages in the form of Hezbollah’s intervention in the conflict from Lebanon, Israel’s inability to fight on two fronts, the US entry into hostilities on the side of Israel and then Iran on the side of its “daughter” Hezbollah. It is precisely this possible scenario that explains the constant delays in the “trigger” Israeli operation in Gaza, and that is why Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian flew to Washington on October 26. “The visit of the Iranian Foreign Minister to New York was associated with an invitation to take part in the 10th emergency session of the UN General Assembly, dedicated to the conflict in the Middle East, and specifically the situation in East Jerusalem. But the Iranian minister took advantage of this opportunity to send a warning to Washington and draw red lines,” explains international political scientist and RIAC expert Elena Suponina to Regnum . Yes, relations between the United States and Iran are extremely difficult. “They are fierce enemies and will remain so for the foreseeable future. However, at the same time, they are indirectly negotiating with each other - through intermediaries and exchanging signals - about preventing a major American-Iranian war in the Middle East,” explains Dmitry Suslov , deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, to IA Regnum. Simply because neither the Americans nor the Iranians need this war. Yes, the United States needs some escalation. It is possible to justify the failure of one’s policy in the Middle East recently and to prevent the consolidation of the Muslim world on an anti-Israeli and anti-American basis (which is now happening) only by pedaling the escalation with Iran. This is what the Biden administration is doing now, says Dmitry Suslov. That is why a number of American officials say that Iran was behind the October 7 attack. Thus, they make it clear that this attack was the result of Iranian ill will, and not the unresolved Palestinian issue. “Yes, there is no evidence (so as not to create political pressure within ourselves in favor of a war with Iran), but it is constantly asserted that the main problem in the Middle East is Iran,” says the expert. However, at the same time, the Americans are not ready for a full-fledged war with Iran. And not only because Iran has one of the most powerful armies in the region. And not only because, in the event of an attack, it could cause unacceptable damage to the Americans by reaching US bases and aircraft carrier groups with missiles. “A major war with Iran crosses out not only the Middle East, but also the global strategy of the United States and the policies that Biden pursued after coming to power. This refers to the desire to “reduce” American policy in the Middle East and build an architecture there that would allow the United States to devote less time and attention to the region, transferring forces to more strategic directions. And if the United States gets involved in a new big war in the Middle East, which will require more resources than Iraq and Afghanistan, then this will bankrupt its entire policy in other areas. Therefore, I don’t think that the United States will be drawn into such a war ,” sums up Dmitry Suslov. As for the Iranians, they don’t need war, even less so. They may inflict unacceptable damage on the Americans, but they themselves will suffer the same. Damage to the economy, damage to industrial potential. Moreover, now the Iranians have only just found diplomatic options for solving all their problems with their opponents. A dialogue is being established with the Turks, normalization of relations is beginning with Saudi Arabia, and even successful negotiations were held with the Americans. “In the last few months, these secret negotiations even resulted in public agreements, within the framework of which American citizens who were there were released from Iranian prisons, and in return, the Iranians began to receive material resources in the form of unfrozen payments that were intended for them for energy supplies,” explains Elena Suponina. However, the problem is that a major war could start even without Iran's desire. And even without an Israeli ground operation. The fact is that in recent days, American bases in the Middle East have been subjected to missile attacks from, for example, the Yemeni Houthis or Iraqi militias. And both of them are considered Iranian proxies. And there are two versions of what happened here. The first is that the actions of Iranian proxies are a demonstration of Iranian muscles. Attacks on American bases are brinksmanship, a show of force and a form of deterrence. The US is containing Iran, building up American power in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf and saying that if Hezbollah opens a second front against Israel, the US will deal a crushing blow to it. In response, pro-Iranian forces are showing that the US itself and its facilities in the region may be vulnerable. And that if Washington deals a crushing blow to Hezbollah, then pro-Iranian forces can and most likely will deal a big blow to American bases and military facilities in the Middle East, Dmitry Suslov believes. In the second version, everything is much more complicated. The Americans claim that Iran fully controls its proxy structures, financially or ideologically connected with it. However, these are often small groups that are able to act independently. And any incident can lead to a negative scenario, Elena Suponina believes: “The longer the conflict in the Palestine region continues, the greater the risk will be that Iranian groups in various countries of the region (Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, etc.) will be drawn deeper and deeper into this conflict. American facilities in the region are in their sights . ” And if the first version is correct, then the conflict is manageable - US retaliatory strikes on IRGC bases in Syria will be perceived by the Iranian side as flexing their muscles within the approved framework. However, if Tehran truly cannot fully control its regional proxies, then continued missile attacks could trigger a chain of escalation. A chain that will lead to a big war. With a high degree of probability, this is the issue that Hossein Amir Abdollahian discussed in New York with his American colleagues. I tried to find some formula for de-escalation. For example, he stated that Hamas is ready to exchange more than two hundred Israeli hostages for 6 thousand Palestinians who are serving prison terms in Israel. And if the exchange takes place, this will be the first step towards building a dialogue. |
| Posted by:badanov |
| #3 Well little one, Iran has been at war with the US since storming the embassy in 1979 and hasn't let up. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2023-10-29 08:17 |
| #2 A war with Iran will never benefit Americans. And if it doesn't, why would we ever do it? America first. |
| Posted by: Otto Gurly-Brown9938 2023-10-29 07:30 |
| #1 Russia (let alone the rest of the world) can survive perfectly well without Iran. |
| Posted by: Grom the Reflective 2023-10-29 00:23 |